Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.9% implied probability to "No" for Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by April's end, driven by persistent US naval blockade of Iranian ports—imposed April 13 amid escalating tensions—and reciprocal Iranian shipping curbs, leaving throughput at just 5% of pre-crisis levels per real-time vessel trackers like TankerTrackers and IMF Portwatch. Live data confirms near-zero eastbound transits over the past 24 hours as of April 30, with over 150 vessels anchored offshore amid sky-high war-risk insurance premiums and rerouting to alternatives like Gwadar. Stalled US-Iran talks and fragile ceasefires sustain this skin-in-the-game pricing, though tail risks include an abrupt diplomatic pact or coalition-led escort operations unlocking flows before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$36,507,121 Vol.
$36,507,121 Vol.
30 abr 2026
Sí
$36,507,121 Vol.
$36,507,121 Vol.
30 abr 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.9% implied probability to "No" for Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by April's end, driven by persistent US naval blockade of Iranian ports—imposed April 13 amid escalating tensions—and reciprocal Iranian shipping curbs, leaving throughput at just 5% of pre-crisis levels per real-time vessel trackers like TankerTrackers and IMF Portwatch. Live data confirms near-zero eastbound transits over the past 24 hours as of April 30, with over 150 vessels anchored offshore amid sky-high war-risk insurance premiums and rerouting to alternatives like Gwadar. Stalled US-Iran talks and fragile ceasefires sustain this skin-in-the-game pricing, though tail risks include an abrupt diplomatic pact or coalition-led escort operations unlocking flows before resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercado abierto: Mar 9, 2026, 2:01 PM ET
Volumen
$36,507,121Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 9, 2026, 2:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.9% implied probability to "No" for Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by April's end, driven by persistent US naval blockade of Iranian ports—imposed April 13 amid escalating tensions—and reciprocal Iranian shipping curbs, leaving throughput at just 5% of pre-crisis levels per real-time vessel trackers like TankerTrackers and IMF Portwatch. Live data confirms near-zero eastbound transits over the past 24 hours as of April 30, with over 150 vessels anchored offshore amid sky-high war-risk insurance premiums and rerouting to alternatives like Gwadar. Stalled US-Iran talks and fragile ceasefires sustain this skin-in-the-game pricing, though tail risks include an abrupt diplomatic pact or coalition-led escort operations unlocking flows before resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$36,517,764Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 9, 2026, 2:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.9% implied probability to "No" for Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by April's end, driven by persistent US naval blockade of Iranian ports—imposed April 13 amid escalating tensions—and reciprocal Iranian shipping curbs, leaving throughput at just 5% of pre-crisis levels per real-time vessel trackers like TankerTrackers and IMF Portwatch. Live data confirms near-zero eastbound transits over the past 24 hours as of April 30, with over 150 vessels anchored offshore amid sky-high war-risk insurance premiums and rerouting to alternatives like Gwadar. Stalled US-Iran talks and fragile ceasefires sustain this skin-in-the-game pricing, though tail risks include an abrupt diplomatic pact or coalition-led escort operations unlocking flows before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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