Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 41.5% implied probability for South Korea's Q2 2026 GDP growth (YoY) in the 3.0–3.4% range, reflecting momentum from Q1's stronger-than-expected 3.6% YoY expansion—driven by a 1.7% quarter-on-quarter surge fueled by semiconductor exports—and April's preliminary export data showing a 49.4% year-on-year rise, with chips up 182.5%. Bank of Korea's April 10 decision to hold the policy rate at 2.5% amid resilient growth has tempered rate-cut expectations, while analysts like J.P. Morgan have lifted full-year 2026 forecasts to 3.0%. Upcoming industrial production and trade figures could refine these market-implied odds ahead of the late-July Q2 release.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSouth Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q2 2026?
South Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q2 2026?
3.0–3.4% 42%
2.0–2.4% 15%
3.5–3.9% 12%
2.5–2.9% 11%
NUEVO
NUEVO
23 jul 2026
<1.5%
9%
1.5–1.9%
6%
2.0–2.4%
15%
2.5–2.9%
11%
3.0–3.4%
42%
3.5–3.9%
12%
4.0–4.4%
10%
4.5%+
10%
3.0–3.4% 42%
2.0–2.4% 15%
3.5–3.9% 12%
2.5–2.9% 11%
NUEVO
NUEVO
23 jul 2026
<1.5%
$184 Vol.
9%
1.5–1.9%
$118 Vol.
6%
2.0–2.4%
$114 Vol.
15%
2.5–2.9%
$86 Vol.
11%
3.0–3.4%
$86 Vol.
42%
3.5–3.9%
$82 Vol.
12%
4.0–4.4%
$86 Vol.
10%
4.5%+
$172 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the second quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on July 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 41.5% implied probability for South Korea's Q2 2026 GDP growth (YoY) in the 3.0–3.4% range, reflecting momentum from Q1's stronger-than-expected 3.6% YoY expansion—driven by a 1.7% quarter-on-quarter surge fueled by semiconductor exports—and April's preliminary export data showing a 49.4% year-on-year rise, with chips up 182.5%. Bank of Korea's April 10 decision to hold the policy rate at 2.5% amid resilient growth has tempered rate-cut expectations, while analysts like J.P. Morgan have lifted full-year 2026 forecasts to 3.0%. Upcoming industrial production and trade figures could refine these market-implied odds ahead of the late-July Q2 release.
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the second quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on July 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
Mercado abierto: Apr 23, 2026, 6:28 PM ET
Volumen
$928Fecha de finalización
23 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 23, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the second quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on July 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 41.5% implied probability for South Korea's Q2 2026 GDP growth (YoY) in the 3.0–3.4% range, reflecting momentum from Q1's stronger-than-expected 3.6% YoY expansion—driven by a 1.7% quarter-on-quarter surge fueled by semiconductor exports—and April's preliminary export data showing a 49.4% year-on-year rise, with chips up 182.5%. Bank of Korea's April 10 decision to hold the policy rate at 2.5% amid resilient growth has tempered rate-cut expectations, while analysts like J.P. Morgan have lifted full-year 2026 forecasts to 3.0%. Upcoming industrial production and trade figures could refine these market-implied odds ahead of the late-July Q2 release.
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the second quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on July 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
Volumen
$928Fecha de finalización
23 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 23, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 41.5% implied probability for South Korea's Q2 2026 GDP growth (YoY) in the 3.0–3.4% range, reflecting momentum from Q1's stronger-than-expected 3.6% YoY expansion—driven by a 1.7% quarter-on-quarter surge fueled by semiconductor exports—and April's preliminary export data showing a 49.4% year-on-year rise, with chips up 182.5%. Bank of Korea's April 10 decision to hold the policy rate at 2.5% amid resilient growth has tempered rate-cut expectations, while analysts like J.P. Morgan have lifted full-year 2026 forecasts to 3.0%. Upcoming industrial production and trade figures could refine these market-implied odds ahead of the late-July Q2 release.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes