Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a 96% implied probability of a Reserve Bank of Australia cash rate increase at the May 5, 2026 decision, reflecting strong consensus driven by the March 2026 CPI surge to 4.6% annually—the highest since September 2023—fueled by 6.5% housing inflation and spiking fuel prices from Middle East conflicts. This follows the RBA's March 25 basis point hike to 4.10%, amid persistent above-target inflation (2-3% band) and a tight labor market, with ASX futures implying around 75% hike odds pre-CPI. Realistic challenges include softer trimmed mean inflation or fiscal offsets in the May 12 budget, though recent data dynamics favor tightening to anchor expectations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Decisión del Banco de la Reserva de Australia en mayo?
¿Decisión del Banco de la Reserva de Australia en mayo?
Aumentar 96%
Sin cambios 3.9%
Disminución <1%
$55,092 Vol.
$55,092 Vol.
5 may 2026
Disminución
<1%
Sin cambios
4%
Aumentar
96%
Aumentar 96%
Sin cambios 3.9%
Disminución <1%
$55,092 Vol.
$55,092 Vol.
5 may 2026
Disminución
$13,280 Vol.
<1%
Sin cambios
$13,887 Vol.
4%
Aumentar
$27,924 Vol.
96%
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s May meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its May 5, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their May 5, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a 96% implied probability of a Reserve Bank of Australia cash rate increase at the May 5, 2026 decision, reflecting strong consensus driven by the March 2026 CPI surge to 4.6% annually—the highest since September 2023—fueled by 6.5% housing inflation and spiking fuel prices from Middle East conflicts. This follows the RBA's March 25 basis point hike to 4.10%, amid persistent above-target inflation (2-3% band) and a tight labor market, with ASX futures implying around 75% hike odds pre-CPI. Realistic challenges include softer trimmed mean inflation or fiscal offsets in the May 12 budget, though recent data dynamics favor tightening to anchor expectations.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s May meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its May 5, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their May 5, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its May 5, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their May 5, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Feb 3, 2026, 10:32 AM ET
Volumen
$55,092Fecha de finalización
5 may 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 3, 2026, 10:32 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s May meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its May 5, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their May 5, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a 96% implied probability of a Reserve Bank of Australia cash rate increase at the May 5, 2026 decision, reflecting strong consensus driven by the March 2026 CPI surge to 4.6% annually—the highest since September 2023—fueled by 6.5% housing inflation and spiking fuel prices from Middle East conflicts. This follows the RBA's March 25 basis point hike to 4.10%, amid persistent above-target inflation (2-3% band) and a tight labor market, with ASX futures implying around 75% hike odds pre-CPI. Realistic challenges include softer trimmed mean inflation or fiscal offsets in the May 12 budget, though recent data dynamics favor tightening to anchor expectations.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s May meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its May 5, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their May 5, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its May 5, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their May 5, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
Volumen
$55,092Fecha de finalización
5 may 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 3, 2026, 10:32 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a 96% implied probability of a Reserve Bank of Australia cash rate increase at the May 5, 2026 decision, reflecting strong consensus driven by the March 2026 CPI surge to 4.6% annually—the highest since September 2023—fueled by 6.5% housing inflation and spiking fuel prices from Middle East conflicts. This follows the RBA's March 25 basis point hike to 4.10%, amid persistent above-target inflation (2-3% band) and a tight labor market, with ASX futures implying around 75% hike odds pre-CPI. Realistic challenges include softer trimmed mean inflation or fiscal offsets in the May 12 budget, though recent data dynamics favor tightening to anchor expectations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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