Polymarket traders assign a 92.9% implied probability to positive US GDP growth in 2026, reflecting strong consensus after the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 2% annualized real GDP expansion in Q1—beating forecasts and rebounding from Q4 2025's 0.5% pace—driven by AI-fueled business investment and resilient consumer spending. Supporting this are economist projections averaging 2-2.5% annual growth (e.g., Philadelphia Fed Survey at 2.5%), stable unemployment near 4.3%, and a soft-landing narrative amid cooling inflation pressures. Challenges include re-emerging inflation risks, global headwinds like energy shocks, or labor market weakening that could prompt tighter Federal Reserve policy; key catalysts ahead are Q2 GDP data and May FOMC projections.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Crecimiento negativo del PIB en 2026?
¿Crecimiento negativo del PIB en 2026?
Sí
$24,064 Vol.
$24,064 Vol.
29 ene 2027
Sí
$24,064 Vol.
$24,064 Vol.
29 ene 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Polymarket traders assign a 92.9% implied probability to positive US GDP growth in 2026, reflecting strong consensus after the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 2% annualized real GDP expansion in Q1—beating forecasts and rebounding from Q4 2025's 0.5% pace—driven by AI-fueled business investment and resilient consumer spending. Supporting this are economist projections averaging 2-2.5% annual growth (e.g., Philadelphia Fed Survey at 2.5%), stable unemployment near 4.3%, and a soft-landing narrative amid cooling inflation pressures. Challenges include re-emerging inflation risks, global headwinds like energy shocks, or labor market weakening that could prompt tighter Federal Reserve policy; key catalysts ahead are Q2 GDP data and May FOMC projections.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volumen
$24,064Fecha de finalización
29 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Polymarket traders assign a 92.9% implied probability to positive US GDP growth in 2026, reflecting strong consensus after the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 2% annualized real GDP expansion in Q1—beating forecasts and rebounding from Q4 2025's 0.5% pace—driven by AI-fueled business investment and resilient consumer spending. Supporting this are economist projections averaging 2-2.5% annual growth (e.g., Philadelphia Fed Survey at 2.5%), stable unemployment near 4.3%, and a soft-landing narrative amid cooling inflation pressures. Challenges include re-emerging inflation risks, global headwinds like energy shocks, or labor market weakening that could prompt tighter Federal Reserve policy; key catalysts ahead are Q2 GDP data and May FOMC projections.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volumen
$24,064Fecha de finalización
29 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders assign a 92.9% implied probability to positive US GDP growth in 2026, reflecting strong consensus after the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 2% annualized real GDP expansion in Q1—beating forecasts and rebounding from Q4 2025's 0.5% pace—driven by AI-fueled business investment and resilient consumer spending. Supporting this are economist projections averaging 2-2.5% annual growth (e.g., Philadelphia Fed Survey at 2.5%), stable unemployment near 4.3%, and a soft-landing narrative amid cooling inflation pressures. Challenges include re-emerging inflation risks, global headwinds like energy shocks, or labor market weakening that could prompt tighter Federal Reserve policy; key catalysts ahead are Q2 GDP data and May FOMC projections.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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