Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 67% probability of no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any triggering events through early May per official records—despite M7.4 earthquakes in Indonesia and Vanuatu (USGS), routine volcanic activity below VEI 6 (Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program), no 10kt+ meteor airbursts (NASA CNEOS), and no Category 5 U.S. landfalls on the Saffir-Simpson scale (NHC). Recent April tornado outbreaks and Midwestern flooding caused billions in damage but fall outside criteria. NOAA's neutral ENSO forecast suggests average Atlantic hurricane activity ahead (June-November peak), while global seismic and volcanic monitoring shows no elevated risks for threshold events; new model runs and agency updates will refine remaining-year odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Desastre natural en 2026?
¿Desastre natural en 2026?
Sí
$215,534 Vol.
$215,534 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$215,534 Vol.
$215,534 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 67% probability of no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any triggering events through early May per official records—despite M7.4 earthquakes in Indonesia and Vanuatu (USGS), routine volcanic activity below VEI 6 (Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program), no 10kt+ meteor airbursts (NASA CNEOS), and no Category 5 U.S. landfalls on the Saffir-Simpson scale (NHC). Recent April tornado outbreaks and Midwestern flooding caused billions in damage but fall outside criteria. NOAA's neutral ENSO forecast suggests average Atlantic hurricane activity ahead (June-November peak), while global seismic and volcanic monitoring shows no elevated risks for threshold events; new model runs and agency updates will refine remaining-year odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Mercado abierto: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volumen
$215,534Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 67% probability of no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any triggering events through early May per official records—despite M7.4 earthquakes in Indonesia and Vanuatu (USGS), routine volcanic activity below VEI 6 (Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program), no 10kt+ meteor airbursts (NASA CNEOS), and no Category 5 U.S. landfalls on the Saffir-Simpson scale (NHC). Recent April tornado outbreaks and Midwestern flooding caused billions in damage but fall outside criteria. NOAA's neutral ENSO forecast suggests average Atlantic hurricane activity ahead (June-November peak), while global seismic and volcanic monitoring shows no elevated risks for threshold events; new model runs and agency updates will refine remaining-year odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volumen
$215,534Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 67% probability of no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any triggering events through early May per official records—despite M7.4 earthquakes in Indonesia and Vanuatu (USGS), routine volcanic activity below VEI 6 (Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program), no 10kt+ meteor airbursts (NASA CNEOS), and no Category 5 U.S. landfalls on the Saffir-Simpson scale (NHC). Recent April tornado outbreaks and Midwestern flooding caused billions in damage but fall outside criteria. NOAA's neutral ENSO forecast suggests average Atlantic hurricane activity ahead (June-November peak), while global seismic and volcanic monitoring shows no elevated risks for threshold events; new model runs and agency updates will refine remaining-year odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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