**Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Senator Cleitinho Azevedo (Republicanos) at 56.5% implied probability to win the Minas Gerais gubernatorial election on October 4, 2026, with a potential runoff on October 25, driven by his dominant performance in the latest Quaest poll released April 28.** The survey of 1,482 voters from April 22-26 shows him leading all first-round scenarios at 30-37%, ahead of Alexandre Kalil (PDT) at 14-18%, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSB) at 8-12%, and others like Benoni Mendes (Missão) and Mateus Simões (PSD, backed by Governor Romeu Zema) in single digits, amid 13-19% undecideds. This widens his edge from the tighter AtlasIntel poll earlier in April, where Pacheco briefly led; high undecideds and coalition negotiations could shift dynamics ahead of campaign ramps.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoMinas Gerais Governor Election Winner
Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner
Cleitinho Azevedo 56%
Rodrigo Pacheco 21%
Mateus Simões 10.7%
Benoni Mendes 9.0%

Cleitinho Azevedo
56%

Rodrigo Pacheco
21%

Mateus Simões
11%

Benoni Mendes
9%

Alexandre Kalil
9%

Tadeu Leite
1%

Nikolas Ferreira
1%

Aécio Neves
1%

Alexandre Silveira
1%

Gabriel Azevedo
1%
Cleitinho Azevedo 56%
Rodrigo Pacheco 21%
Mateus Simões 10.7%
Benoni Mendes 9.0%

Cleitinho Azevedo
56%

Rodrigo Pacheco
21%

Mateus Simões
11%

Benoni Mendes
9%

Alexandre Kalil
9%

Tadeu Leite
1%

Nikolas Ferreira
1%

Aécio Neves
1%

Alexandre Silveira
1%

Gabriel Azevedo
1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercado abierto: Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Senator Cleitinho Azevedo (Republicanos) at 56.5% implied probability to win the Minas Gerais gubernatorial election on October 4, 2026, with a potential runoff on October 25, driven by his dominant performance in the latest Quaest poll released April 28.** The survey of 1,482 voters from April 22-26 shows him leading all first-round scenarios at 30-37%, ahead of Alexandre Kalil (PDT) at 14-18%, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSB) at 8-12%, and others like Benoni Mendes (Missão) and Mateus Simões (PSD, backed by Governor Romeu Zema) in single digits, amid 13-19% undecideds. This widens his edge from the tighter AtlasIntel poll earlier in April, where Pacheco briefly led; high undecideds and coalition negotiations could shift dynamics ahead of campaign ramps.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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