Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Nithya Raman as the frontrunner at 50% for the June 2, 2026, Los Angeles nonpartisan primary, driven by her late-entry surge as a progressive councilmember, a controversial March poll showing her at 33%, and recent fundraising outpacing incumbent Karen Bass. Spencer Pratt's 27% reflects viral buzz from his unconventional campaign ad highlighting city failures—drawing John Wick comparisons—and his Republican outsider appeal amid Bass's trailing funds, despite residency eligibility questions. Bass lags at 21% as UCLA Luskin polling shows her at 25% with 40% undecided voters, underscoring volatility ahead of the primary where top-two advance to November if no majority.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSpencer Pratt accuses media of harassment amid rising poll numbers, framing himself as a victim of establishment pushback and energizing his base
Spencer Pratt jumps to 27%7%
Spencer Pratt accuses media of harassment amid rising poll numbers, framing himself as a victim of establishment pushback and energizing his base
Final surge in market confidence for Raman as grassroots mobilization efforts and endorsements accumulate, positioning her as a serious contender in the upcoming primary
Nithya Raman jumps to 60%7%
Final surge in market confidence for Raman as grassroots mobilization efforts and endorsements accumulate, positioning her as a serious contender in the upcoming primary
Reports reveal Pratt has raised over $500,000 in campaign funds, surpassing incumbent Bass, signaling strong financial backing and campaign viability
Spencer Pratt rises to 20%4%
Reports reveal Pratt has raised over $500,000 in campaign funds, surpassing incumbent Bass, signaling strong financial backing and campaign viability
Raman’s campaign releases detailed policy proposals on housing and homelessness, gaining positive media attention and volunteer support
Nithya Raman rises to 51%2%
Raman’s campaign releases detailed policy proposals on housing and homelessness, gaining positive media attention and volunteer support
Mayor‑candidate debate organizers exclude Adam Miller (along with Spencer Pratt and Rae Huang), signaling marginal relevance and sending his
Adam Miller dips to 1%4%
Mayor‑candidate debate organizers exclude Adam Miller (along with Spencer Pratt and Rae Huang), signaling marginal relevance and sending his
Tech entrepreneur Adam Miller appears on “Inside the Issues” (Spectrum News) to discuss his outsider run, giving a modest lift that pushes his
Adam Miller rises to 5%1%
Tech entrepreneur Adam Miller appears on “Inside the Issues” (Spectrum News) to discuss his outsider run, giving a modest lift that pushes his
Los Angeles mayoral race intensifies with multiple challengers and public dissatisfaction over homelessness and city services
Karen Bass dips to 19%4%
The crowded field and persistent issues like homelessness and public safety contributed to Bass’s declining market position.
Pratt sharply criticizes Mayor Karen Bass’s proposed $14.85 billion budget for misprioritizing homelessness over infrastructure, reinforcing his platform on fiscal responsibility
Spencer Pratt rises to 16%3%
Pratt sharply criticizes Mayor Karen Bass’s proposed $14.85 billion budget for misprioritizing homelessness over infrastructure, reinforcing his platform on fiscal responsibility
Polls and endorsements show increased support for Raman, particularly among Asian American voters;
Nithya Raman jumps to 54%13%
political analysts note the race tightening between Bass and Raman
Continued fallout from wildfire mismanagement and criticism of Bass’s leadership amid calls for resignation
Karen Bass drops to 21%9%
Ongoing anger over Bass’s handling of the 2025 wildfires, including accusations of budget cuts and absence during crisis, further eroded confidence.
Joe Rogan publicly endorses Spencer Pratt on his podcast, expanding Pratt’s appeal to a broader audience
Spencer Pratt rises to 16%3%
Joe Rogan publicly endorses Spencer Pratt on his podcast, expanding Pratt’s appeal to a broader audience
Announcement of Los Angeles County Bar Association hosting a mayoral candidate forum including Rae Huang
Rae Huang dips to 3%2%
The forum offered a platform for Huang but did not significantly increase her visibility or support, reflecting continued low market confidence.
Growing public dissatisfaction with Mayor Bass amid criticism over handling of homelessness and public safety boosts Raman’s standing as a progressive alternative;
Nithya Raman jumps to 41%5%
media coverage highlights her rising momentum
Adam Miller says he will spend $2 million on his mayoral campaign, but internal polling shows only 6% support, dragging his
Adam Miller plunges to 4%35%
Adam Miller says he will spend $2 million on his mayoral campaign, but internal polling shows only 6% support, dragging his
Polls show Rae Huang polling at about 3%, with 40% of voters undecided and Bass leading; Huang remains a minor candidate in a fragmented race
Rae Huang rises to 5%1%
Poll data confirmed her status as a minor contender, with limited but stable support amid widespread voter indecision.
Nithya Raman officially launches her mayoral campaign at Sherman Oaks Recreation Center, emphasizing housing affordability, homelessness solutions, and community engagement;
Nithya Raman rises to 34%1%
event energizes supporters and raises her profile
Internal campaign polling reveals Pratt as top rival to Karen Bass, increasing campaign momentum and media coverage
Spencer Pratt rises to 11%3%
Internal campaign polling reveals Pratt as top rival to Karen Bass, increasing campaign momentum and media coverage
Democratic socialist Rae Huang launches mayoral bid challenging Bass, criticizing her leadership on homelessness and public safety
Karen Bass drops to 38%5%
Huang’s entry as a progressive challenger highlighted dissatisfaction with Bass’s record, pressuring her support base.
Alnajjar achieves official certification for the June 2 ballot and reiterates his campaign message focusing on ending homelessness, fixing budgets, and infrastructure, positioning himself as an underdog with "Iron Resolve"
Asaad Alnajjar dips to 1%2%
Despite certification and campaign messaging, Alnajjar's market support declined as other candidates gained prominence and endorsements.
Polls show Spencer Pratt rising to second place in a crowded 14-candidate field, trailing only incumbent Mayor Karen Bass, signaling growing voter support
Spencer Pratt rises to 13%3%
Polls show Spencer Pratt rising to second place in a crowded 14-candidate field, trailing only incumbent Mayor Karen Bass, signaling growing voter support
Rae Huang gains slight momentum after early campaign activity and media coverage highlighting her progressive platform
Rae Huang jumps to 8%6%
Renewed attention to her campaign and progressive stance briefly boosted her perceived viability.
Mayor Bass announces plans to ban ICE from city properties to protect Los Angeles from federal immigration enforcement
Karen Bass drops to 46%5%
Her aggressive stance against ICE drew mixed reactions, energizing some supporters but alienating others concerned about federal relations.
City Councilwoman Nithya Raman announces surprise candidacy for Los Angeles mayor hours before filing deadline, challenging incumbent Karen Bass despite previously endorsing her;
Nithya Raman drops to 35%14%
the move shocks political establishment and reshapes the race dynamics
Deadline for mayoral candidate filing passes with Caruso absent;
Rick Caruso dips to 0%2%
other challengers enter race, confirming his non-candidacy and market
Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass expresses surprise and disappointment at Raman’s challenge;
Nithya Raman dips to 31%4%
Bass’s campaign advisor criticizes Raman’s record on homelessness and public safety, intensifying the political conflict
Rick Caruso officially confirms he will not run for mayor despite controversy around Bass, solidifying market decline
Rick Caruso dips to 2%1%
Rick Caruso officially confirms he will not run for mayor despite controversy around Bass, solidifying market decline
Report on real estate industry contributions to Bass’s campaign surfaces amid growing mayoral race competition
Karen Bass drops to 43%7%
Disclosure of real estate backing raised questions about her ties to developers, possibly dampening enthusiasm among progressive voters.
Los Angeles mayoral race filing deadline passes with Rae Huang officially among 24 candidates
Rae Huang drops to 2%6%
The crowded candidate field and Huang’s low profile amid many contenders led to a sharp drop in market confidence in her chances.
Los Angeles Times reports Mayor Karen Bass allegedly altered wildfire after-action report;
Rick Caruso rises to 3%1%
Caruso expresses outrage and briefly reconsiders mayoral run, causing minor market uptick
Mayor Bass delivers State of the City address highlighting preparations for major sporting events and immigration stance
Karen Bass jumps to 51%5%
Bass’s speech emphasized city unity and readiness for upcoming global events, along with strong opposition to ICE raids, briefly improving market sentiment.
Pratt promotes memoir "The Guy You Loved to Hate" amid campaign, facing family criticism but maintaining media attention and voter interest
Spencer Pratt dips to 17%4%
Pratt promotes memoir "The Guy You Loved to Hate" amid campaign, facing family criticism but maintaining media attention and voter interest
Caruso's nonprofit Steadfast LA installs first modular homes for wildfire victims, reinforcing his shift to community work rather than electoral politics
Rick Caruso dips to 2%1%
Caruso's nonprofit Steadfast LA installs first modular homes for wildfire victims, reinforcing his shift to community work rather than electoral politics
Rick Caruso announces he will not run for California governor or Los Angeles mayor in 2026, citing family considerations and disappointment, causing a sharp market drop
Rick Caruso plunges to 3%18%
Rick Caruso announces he will not run for California governor or Los Angeles mayor in 2026, citing family considerations and disappointment, causing a sharp market drop
Pratt publicly criticizes Governor Gavin Newsom for alleged cover-up and insurance market failures post-wildfire, intensifying his outsider appeal
Spencer Pratt rises to 25%2%
Pratt publicly criticizes Governor Gavin Newsom for alleged cover-up and insurance market failures post-wildfire, intensifying his outsider appeal
Spencer Pratt secures endorsement from Richard Grenell, Trump’s special envoy, boosting campaign credibility and fundraising prospects
Spencer Pratt rises to 24%3%
Spencer Pratt secures endorsement from Richard Grenell, Trump’s special envoy, boosting campaign credibility and fundraising prospects
Spencer Pratt announces mayoral campaign at "They Let Us Burn!" Palisades fire anniversary protest, blaming city and state officials for wildfire mismanagement and calling for
Spencer Pratt jumps to 23%5%
Spencer Pratt announces mayoral campaign at "They Let Us Burn!" Palisades fire anniversary protest, blaming city and state officials for wildfire mismanagement and calling for systemic change
Asaad Alnajjar becomes the first mayoral candidate officially certified for the June 2, 2026 ballot, branding himself the "Iron Resolve" challenger
Asaad Alnajjar jumps to 13%9%
Certification and self-branding as a serious contender briefly boosted market confidence in his candidacy.
Alnajjar comments on new California state law AB 476, discussing its impact on public safety and recycling businesses, positioning himself as a knowledgeable candidate on local regulatory issues
Asaad Alnajjar dips to 4%1%
This policy commentary maintained his profile but did not translate into significant market gains.
Los Angeles Labor Movement endorses Mayor Karen Bass for re-election
Karen Bass rises to 63%1%
The Los Angeles County Federation of Labor, representing 800,000 workers, endorsed Bass for her leadership on working families, providing a boost to her campaign.
Rae Huang announces candidacy for Los Angeles mayor, emphasizing housing for all and progressive policies
Rae Huang plunges to 8%42%
Her formal entry into the race introduced a progressive voice challenging incumbent Karen Bass, initially generating interest but also marking her as a long-shot candidate with limited recognition.
Asaad Alnajjar officially launches his campaign for Los Angeles mayor, emphasizing his 36 years of city engineering experience and pledging to "engineer a stronger Los Angeles"
Asaad Alnajjar rises to 5%1%
The formal campaign announcement brought some attention but failed to generate a sustained increase in market confidence.
Mayor Karen Bass receives Trailblazer Award at Net Zero Conference for climate leadership
Karen Bass jumps to 62%6%
Recognition for Bass’s climate initiatives and water conservation programs helped improve her standing temporarily.
Asaad Alnajjar publicly opposes the $2.6 billion Los Angeles Convention Center expansion, criticizing it as a costly project that neglects city priorities like streets, safety, and housing
Asaad Alnajjar plunges to 4%45%
This early policy stance highlighted Alnajjar's campaign focus on fiscal responsibility and infrastructure, but did not significantly boost his market support.
Rick Caruso publicly criticizes Los Angeles development policies and city bureaucracy, signaling potential political ambitions and influencing market optimism
Rick Caruso jumps to 27%7%
Rick Caruso publicly criticizes Los Angeles development policies and city bureaucracy, signaling potential political ambitions and influencing market optimism
Rick Caruso deploys private firefighters and water trucks to protect Palisades Village during the Southern California wildfires, highlighting his active role in local crisis
Rick Caruso plunges to 13%23%
Rick Caruso deploys private firefighters and water trucks to protect Palisades Village during the Southern California wildfires, highlighting his active role in local crisis response and increasing his public profile
Devastating Palisades Fire ravages Los Angeles; Mayor Bass criticized for traveling to Ghana during crisis
Karen Bass drops to 50%10%
The Palisades Fire destroyed over 1,000 structures and killed 12 people. Bass faced backlash for being abroad at the time and for proposed fire department budget cuts, leading to public outrage and declining support.
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