A fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, extended in late April 2026 amid mutual violations including Israeli airstrikes, has held without IDF ground forces crossing the Litani River, anchoring trader consensus at 57% for "No" by June 30. Israel has entrenched control over a buffer zone in southern Lebanon up to the river—reaching its banks through March advances and declaring the area south of it an operational zone against Hezbollah—but halted further ground pushes, issuing evacuation warnings for towns north of the Litani while prohibiting resident returns via makeshift crossings. Recent strikes killing civilians north of the river signal ongoing tensions, yet diplomatic efforts like U.S.-hosted talks and historical precedents of Israel withdrawing post-Litani advances underscore de-escalation risks outweighing escalation drivers ahead of the deadline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Las fuerzas israelíes cruzan el río Litani antes del 30 de junio?
¿Las fuerzas israelíes cruzan el río Litani antes del 30 de junio?
Sí
$515,383 Vol.
$515,383 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sí
$515,383 Vol.
$515,383 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli military personnel cross the Litani River in Lebanon by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.
A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.
Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.
Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.A fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, extended in late April 2026 amid mutual violations including Israeli airstrikes, has held without IDF ground forces crossing the Litani River, anchoring trader consensus at 57% for "No" by June 30. Israel has entrenched control over a buffer zone in southern Lebanon up to the river—reaching its banks through March advances and declaring the area south of it an operational zone against Hezbollah—but halted further ground pushes, issuing evacuation warnings for towns north of the Litani while prohibiting resident returns via makeshift crossings. Recent strikes killing civilians north of the river signal ongoing tensions, yet diplomatic efforts like U.S.-hosted talks and historical precedents of Israel withdrawing post-Litani advances underscore de-escalation risks outweighing escalation drivers ahead of the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli military personnel cross the Litani River in Lebanon by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.
A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.
Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.
Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.
A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.
Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.
Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Mar 17, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volumen
$515,383Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 17, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli military personnel cross the Litani River in Lebanon by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.
A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.
Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.
Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.A fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, extended in late April 2026 amid mutual violations including Israeli airstrikes, has held without IDF ground forces crossing the Litani River, anchoring trader consensus at 57% for "No" by June 30. Israel has entrenched control over a buffer zone in southern Lebanon up to the river—reaching its banks through March advances and declaring the area south of it an operational zone against Hezbollah—but halted further ground pushes, issuing evacuation warnings for towns north of the Litani while prohibiting resident returns via makeshift crossings. Recent strikes killing civilians north of the river signal ongoing tensions, yet diplomatic efforts like U.S.-hosted talks and historical precedents of Israel withdrawing post-Litani advances underscore de-escalation risks outweighing escalation drivers ahead of the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli military personnel cross the Litani River in Lebanon by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.
A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.
Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.
Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.
A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.
Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.
Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$515,383Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 17, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, extended in late April 2026 amid mutual violations including Israeli airstrikes, has held without IDF ground forces crossing the Litani River, anchoring trader consensus at 57% for "No" by June 30. Israel has entrenched control over a buffer zone in southern Lebanon up to the river—reaching its banks through March advances and declaring the area south of it an operational zone against Hezbollah—but halted further ground pushes, issuing evacuation warnings for towns north of the Litani while prohibiting resident returns via makeshift crossings. Recent strikes killing civilians north of the river signal ongoing tensions, yet diplomatic efforts like U.S.-hosted talks and historical precedents of Israel withdrawing post-Litani advances underscore de-escalation risks outweighing escalation drivers ahead of the deadline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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