Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February-March 2026 inflicted substantial damage on Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, as well as weaponization-related facilities including Taleghan 2 at Parchin. IAEA reports from early June 2026 confirm suspended monitoring access, an unverified stockpile of highly enriched uranium, and no indications of resumed high-level enrichment or structured preparations for explosive testing. Ongoing diplomatic negotiations, combined with repeated seismic events confirmed as natural rather than nuclear, reinforce the absence of observable test activity. These factors sustain trader consensus that a verifiable nuclear test remains unlikely through December 2026.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Prueba nuclear de Irán antes de 2027?
¿Prueba nuclear de Irán antes de 2027?
Sí
$206,757 Vol.
$206,757 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$206,757 Vol.
$206,757 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February-March 2026 inflicted substantial damage on Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, as well as weaponization-related facilities including Taleghan 2 at Parchin. IAEA reports from early June 2026 confirm suspended monitoring access, an unverified stockpile of highly enriched uranium, and no indications of resumed high-level enrichment or structured preparations for explosive testing. Ongoing diplomatic negotiations, combined with repeated seismic events confirmed as natural rather than nuclear, reinforce the absence of observable test activity. These factors sustain trader consensus that a verifiable nuclear test remains unlikely through December 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volumen
$206,757Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February-March 2026 inflicted substantial damage on Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, as well as weaponization-related facilities including Taleghan 2 at Parchin. IAEA reports from early June 2026 confirm suspended monitoring access, an unverified stockpile of highly enriched uranium, and no indications of resumed high-level enrichment or structured preparations for explosive testing. Ongoing diplomatic negotiations, combined with repeated seismic events confirmed as natural rather than nuclear, reinforce the absence of observable test activity. These factors sustain trader consensus that a verifiable nuclear test remains unlikely through December 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$206,757Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February-March 2026 inflicted substantial damage on Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, as well as weaponization-related facilities including Taleghan 2 at Parchin. IAEA reports from early June 2026 confirm suspended monitoring access, an unverified stockpile of highly enriched uranium, and no indications of resumed high-level enrichment or structured preparations for explosive testing. Ongoing diplomatic negotiations, combined with repeated seismic events confirmed as natural rather than nuclear, reinforce the absence of observable test activity. These factors sustain trader consensus that a verifiable nuclear test remains unlikely through December 2026.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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