Trader consensus prices "No" at 90.5% for an Iranian nuclear test before 2027, reflecting IAEA assessments through April 2026 showing no evidence of weaponization or test preparations despite Iran's pre-2025 stockpile of 441 kg of 60% highly enriched uranium, much still believed at the struck Isfahan complex. US-Israeli airstrikes last June severely damaged key sites like Natanz, halting verifiable enrichment resumption amid restricted agency access. Recent Iranian proposals for de-escalation via Strait of Hormuz reopening postpone nuclear curbs, drawing US rejection over insufficient highly enriched uranium constraints. Diplomatic pressures, sanctions, and strike threats maintain high barriers, though regime shifts or covert breakout could alter odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Prueba nuclear de Irán antes de 2027?
¿Prueba nuclear de Irán antes de 2027?
Sí
$182,147 Vol.
$182,147 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$182,147 Vol.
$182,147 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 90.5% for an Iranian nuclear test before 2027, reflecting IAEA assessments through April 2026 showing no evidence of weaponization or test preparations despite Iran's pre-2025 stockpile of 441 kg of 60% highly enriched uranium, much still believed at the struck Isfahan complex. US-Israeli airstrikes last June severely damaged key sites like Natanz, halting verifiable enrichment resumption amid restricted agency access. Recent Iranian proposals for de-escalation via Strait of Hormuz reopening postpone nuclear curbs, drawing US rejection over insufficient highly enriched uranium constraints. Diplomatic pressures, sanctions, and strike threats maintain high barriers, though regime shifts or covert breakout could alter odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volumen
$182,147Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 90.5% for an Iranian nuclear test before 2027, reflecting IAEA assessments through April 2026 showing no evidence of weaponization or test preparations despite Iran's pre-2025 stockpile of 441 kg of 60% highly enriched uranium, much still believed at the struck Isfahan complex. US-Israeli airstrikes last June severely damaged key sites like Natanz, halting verifiable enrichment resumption amid restricted agency access. Recent Iranian proposals for de-escalation via Strait of Hormuz reopening postpone nuclear curbs, drawing US rejection over insufficient highly enriched uranium constraints. Diplomatic pressures, sanctions, and strike threats maintain high barriers, though regime shifts or covert breakout could alter odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$182,210Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 90.5% for an Iranian nuclear test before 2027, reflecting IAEA assessments through April 2026 showing no evidence of weaponization or test preparations despite Iran's pre-2025 stockpile of 441 kg of 60% highly enriched uranium, much still believed at the struck Isfahan complex. US-Israeli airstrikes last June severely damaged key sites like Natanz, halting verifiable enrichment resumption amid restricted agency access. Recent Iranian proposals for de-escalation via Strait of Hormuz reopening postpone nuclear curbs, drawing US rejection over insufficient highly enriched uranium constraints. Diplomatic pressures, sanctions, and strike threats maintain high barriers, though regime shifts or covert breakout could alter odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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