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Política·Starmer

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

icon for Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)
Política·Starmer

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Petro - Colombia President 57%

Starmer - UK PM 27%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 9.1%

None before 2027 1.9%

Polymarket

$819,155 Vol.

Petro - Colombia President 57%

Starmer - UK PM 27%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 9.1%

None before 2027 1.9%

Polymarket

$819,155 Vol.

Petro - Colombia President

$115,937 Vol.

57%

Starmer - UK PM

$48,343 Vol.

27%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President

$30,370 Vol.

9%

None before 2027

$49,235 Vol.

2%

Netanyahu - Israel PM

$34,214 Vol.

1%

Sánchez - Spanish PM

$39,188 Vol.

1%

Putin - Russia President

$32,503 Vol.

1%

Merz - German Chancellor

$32,616 Vol.

1%

Trump - USA President

$27,980 Vol.

<1%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President

$33,892 Vol.

<1%

Takaichi - Japan PM

$26,424 Vol.

<1%

Xi - General Secretary of the CCP

$21,436 Vol.

<1%

Abbas - President of Palestine

$22,326 Vol.

<1%

Macron - France President

$27,573 Vol.

<1%

Erdoğan - Türkiye President

$27,784 Vol.

<1%

Albanese - Australia PM

$23,594 Vol.

<1%

Lula da Silva - Brazil President

$28,629 Vol.

<1%

Lecornu - France PM

$27,828 Vol.

<1%

Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President

$26,531 Vol.

<1%

Sheinbaum - Mexico President

$24,652 Vol.

<1%

al-Sharaa - Syria President

$28,519 Vol.

<1%

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea

$28,193 Vol.

<1%

Newsom - California Governor

$32,504 Vol.

<1%

Milei - Argentina President

$31,879 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Gustavo Petro leads trader consensus at 57% due to Colombia’s fixed constitutional term limit, with his presidency concluding in August 2026 following the May 31 first-round election and June 21 runoff. This structural certainty outweighs recent polling rebounds that lifted his approval near 50%. Keir Starmer sits second at 26.5% amid persistently negative net favorability near –46, weak local election results, and internal Labour Party pressure for a leadership change before the next general election. Lower-probability outcomes such as Díaz-Canel reflect Cuba’s entrenched system with fewer near-term catalysts, while figures like Netanyahu, Sánchez, and others register minimal shares given stable coalitions or longer mandates. Market pricing incorporates the short resolution window through December 2026 and distinguishes term-limited exits from those driven by scandals, votes of no confidence, or electoral defeat.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$819,155
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Gustavo Petro leads trader consensus at 57% due to Colombia’s fixed constitutional term limit, with his presidency concluding in August 2026 following the May 31 first-round election and June 21 runoff. This structural certainty outweighs recent polling rebounds that lifted his approval near 50%. Keir Starmer sits second at 26.5% amid persistently negative net favorability near –46, weak local election results, and internal Labour Party pressure for a leadership change before the next general election. Lower-probability outcomes such as Díaz-Canel reflect Cuba’s entrenched system with fewer near-term catalysts, while figures like Netanyahu, Sánchez, and others register minimal shares given stable coalitions or longer mandates. Market pricing incorporates the short resolution window through December 2026 and distinguishes term-limited exits from those driven by scandals, votes of no confidence, or electoral defeat.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$819,155
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 24 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Petro - Colombia President" con 57%, seguido de "Starmer - UK PM" con 27%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 57¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 57% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" ha generado $819.2K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Apr 27, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)", explora los 24 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" es "Petro - Colombia President" con 57%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 57% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Starmer - UK PM" con 27%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.