Gustavo Petro leads trader sentiment at 56.5% because Colombia’s presidential election cycle places his term end in 2026, with a May 2026 vote already underway to select his successor and recent legislative moves proposing his temporary suspension over alleged meddling. Keir Starmer follows at 26.5% amid sharply negative approval ratings near -57, deepening Labour Party divisions, and multiple reports of MPs urging his resignation after poor local election results. Miguel Díaz-Canel sits at 9.2% due to Cuba’s ongoing economic strains and recent reform announcements, though no immediate leadership transition mechanism exists. Lower probabilities for figures such as Netanyahu, Sánchez, and Putin reflect longer constitutional terms, stronger institutional support, or absence of acute near-term removal triggers before 2027. These odds reflect trader consensus on timing of confirmed office exits rather than forecasts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoPetro - Colombia President 56%
Starmer - UK PM 27%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 9.2%
None before 2027 1.9%
$823,212 Vol.
$823,212 Vol.
Petro - Colombia President
56%
Starmer - UK PM
27%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
9%
None before 2027
2%
Netanyahu - Israel PM
2%
Sánchez - Spanish PM
1%
Putin - Russia President
1%
Merz - German Chancellor
1%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
<1%
Takaichi - Japan PM
<1%
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
<1%
Abbas - President of Palestine
<1%
Macron - France President
<1%
Erdoğan - Türkiye President
<1%
Albanese - Australia PM
<1%
Lecornu - France PM
<1%
Trump - USA President
<1%
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
<1%
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President
<1%
Sheinbaum - Mexico President
<1%
al-Sharaa - Syria President
<1%
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea
<1%
Newsom - California Governor
<1%
Milei - Argentina President
<1%
Petro - Colombia President 56%
Starmer - UK PM 27%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 9.2%
None before 2027 1.9%
$823,212 Vol.
$823,212 Vol.
Petro - Colombia President
56%
Starmer - UK PM
27%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
9%
None before 2027
2%
Netanyahu - Israel PM
2%
Sánchez - Spanish PM
1%
Putin - Russia President
1%
Merz - German Chancellor
1%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
<1%
Takaichi - Japan PM
<1%
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
<1%
Abbas - President of Palestine
<1%
Macron - France President
<1%
Erdoğan - Türkiye President
<1%
Albanese - Australia PM
<1%
Lecornu - France PM
<1%
Trump - USA President
<1%
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
<1%
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President
<1%
Sheinbaum - Mexico President
<1%
al-Sharaa - Syria President
<1%
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea
<1%
Newsom - California Governor
<1%
Milei - Argentina President
<1%
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Gustavo Petro leads trader sentiment at 56.5% because Colombia’s presidential election cycle places his term end in 2026, with a May 2026 vote already underway to select his successor and recent legislative moves proposing his temporary suspension over alleged meddling. Keir Starmer follows at 26.5% amid sharply negative approval ratings near -57, deepening Labour Party divisions, and multiple reports of MPs urging his resignation after poor local election results. Miguel Díaz-Canel sits at 9.2% due to Cuba’s ongoing economic strains and recent reform announcements, though no immediate leadership transition mechanism exists. Lower probabilities for figures such as Netanyahu, Sánchez, and Putin reflect longer constitutional terms, stronger institutional support, or absence of acute near-term removal triggers before 2027. These odds reflect trader consensus on timing of confirmed office exits rather than forecasts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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