Gustavo Petro leads trader sentiment at 56.5% because Colombia’s presidential election cycle places his term end in 2026, with a May 2026 vote already underway to select his successor and recent legislative moves proposing his temporary suspension over alleged meddling. Keir Starmer follows at 26.5% amid sharply negative approval ratings near -57, deepening Labour Party divisions, and multiple reports of MPs urging his resignation after poor local election results. Miguel Díaz-Canel sits at 9.2% due to Cuba’s ongoing economic strains and recent reform announcements, though no immediate leadership transition mechanism exists. Lower probabilities for figures such as Netanyahu, Sánchez, and Putin reflect longer constitutional terms, stronger institutional support, or absence of acute near-term removal triggers before 2027. These odds reflect trader consensus on timing of confirmed office exits rather than forecasts.