Democratic Party candidate Park Chan-dae holds a commanding 94% implied probability among Polymarket traders for the June 3 Incheon mayoral election, driven by recent polls showing him leading incumbent People Power Party Mayor Yoo Jeong-bok by 13-25 percentage points—54.9% to 29.5% in a May 1 survey and 48.1% to 34.7% the prior week. As President Lee Jae-myung's key ally and a three-term lawmaker, Park secured his party's nomination in March, formally launched his campaign April 22 with pledges for AI, biotech expansion in Songdo's bio cluster, and 100-day livelihood recovery, capitalizing on ruling party momentum. Yoo, seeking a third term, announced April 29 amid opposition struggles. Barring late scandals, voter turnout shifts favoring conservatives, or national political surprises, Park's position remains dominant in this key battleground race.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoYoon Sang‑hyun again calls for “decisive action” at a PPP Supreme Council meeting, but the party’s agenda centers on expanding Yoo Jeong‑bok’s housing project rather than
Yoon Sang‑hyun again calls for “decisive action” at a PPP Supreme Council meeting, but the party’s agenda centers on expanding Yoo Jeong‑bok’s housing project rather than promoting Yoon, confirming his exclusion from the mayoral ticket
PPP’s candidate‑selection process for Incheon stalls;
party focuses on incumbent mayor Yoo Jeong‑bok’s third‑term bid, with no formal nomination of Yoon Sang‑hyun, effectively sidelining him from the race
Yoo Jeong-bok officially launches third-term bid, drawing 7,000 supporters and unveiling key pledges
Yoo Jeong-bok dips to 2%2%
Despite a large campaign launch and pledges for economic growth and welfare, market confidence in Yoo’s victory continued to decline, reflecting entrenched doubts.
Nomination committee announces additional open recruitment for the Gyeyang-B by-election in Incheon, indicating ongoing candidate reshuffling and uncertainty
This reflects continued political maneuvering in Incheon, with no recovery in Kim's market support.
Park Chan‑dae backs the “Kim Yong” nomination fight, positioning himself against political‑prosecutor narratives
Park Chan‑dae backs the “Kim Yong” nomination fight, positioning himself against political‑prosecutor narratives
Park Chan‑dae joins a joint “Peace Zone” press conference with other Democratic candidates, signaling regional cooperation
Park Chan‑dae joins a joint “Peace Zone” press conference with other Democratic candidates, signaling regional cooperation
Follow‑up coverage repeats Yoon’s warning that “public sentiment in Incheon is dire,” contrasting with the ruling Democratic Party’s active campaign tours;
the repeated emphasis on his negative outlook reinforced market belief that he had no realistic path to victory
Park Chan‑dae launches his mayoral bid, unveiling a “biotech capital” platform for Incheon
Park Chan‑dae launches his mayoral bid, unveiling a “biotech capital” platform for Incheon
Park Chan‑dae announces his Incheon mayoral bid, positioning himself as the Democratic Party’s flagship candidate and drawing attention away from Kim Kyo‑heung
Park Chan‑dae announces his Incheon mayoral bid, positioning himself as the Democratic Party’s flagship candidate and drawing attention away from Kim Kyo‑heung
Park Chan-dae, another Democratic Party lawmaker, declares his Incheon mayoral bid with a strong biotech development platform, attracting significant attention and supporters
Kim Kyo-heung dips to 0%2%
The entry of a strong rival candidate from the same party further diminished Kim Kyo-heung's chances.
Park Chan‑dae declares his Incheon mayoral bid, positioning himself as the front‑runner and drawing support away from Kim
Park Chan‑dae declares his Incheon mayoral bid, positioning himself as the front‑runner and drawing support away from Kim
Park Chan-dae launches campaign with a focus on building Incheon as a biotech capital, unveiling seven biotech pledges at a public event
Park Chan-dae rises to 94%1%
Park Chan-dae launches campaign with a focus on building Incheon as a biotech capital, unveiling seven biotech pledges at a public event
Yoon Sang‑hyun repeats harsh criticism of the party’s local standing at another Supreme Council session, reinforcing the view that the PPP cannot recover in Incheon and keeping
Yoon Sang‑hyun repeats harsh criticism of the party’s local standing at another Supreme Council session, reinforcing the view that the PPP cannot recover in Incheon and keeping his outcome at zero
Park Chan‑dae promises to raise the “Eum Card” monthly limit to 1 million won for three months after taking office
Park Chan‑dae rises to 95%2%
Park Chan‑dae promises to raise the “Eum Card” monthly limit to 1 million won for three months after taking office
Democratic Party confirms candidate Park Chan-dae as frontrunner for Incheon mayor, overshadowing Lee Hak-jae
Lee Hak-jae dips to 0%1%
The ruling Democratic Party's candidate Park Chan-dae gained strong polling leads and party support, consolidating the market's expectation that Lee Hak-jae, from the opposition, had no realistic chance, pushing his.
Democratic Party candidate Park Chan-dae gained commanding leads in polls over incumbent People Power Party Mayor Yoo Jeong-bok in Incheon, reinforcing the market's low confidence
Democratic Party candidate Park Chan-dae gained commanding leads in polls over incumbent People Power Party Mayor Yoo Jeong-bok in Incheon, reinforcing the market's low confidence in Yoon Sang-hyun's chances as the opposition consolidated support
Report of the same council meeting notes Yoon Sang‑hyun’s criticism of the party’s falling approval rating and warns that “public sentiment in the Seoul metropolitan area is
Yoon Sang‑hyun dips to 0%2%
Report of the same council meeting notes Yoon Sang‑hyun’s criticism of the party’s falling approval rating and warns that “public sentiment in the Seoul metropolitan area is turning against us,” underscoring the PPP’s weakening position in Incheon
Democratic Party confirms four Incheon district candidates, highlighting former aide Ku Jae‑yong (Kim Kyo‑heung’s former aide) as a district‑chief contender, further marginalizing
Democratic Party confirms four Incheon district candidates, highlighting former aide Ku Jae‑yong (Kim Kyo‑heung’s former aide) as a district‑chief contender, further marginalizing Kim’s mayoral prospects
Yoon Sang-hyun urged decisive action from party leadership at a PPP Supreme Council meeting in Incheon, lamenting that candidates were left to fend for themselves and that voters
Yoon Sang-hyun urged decisive action from party leadership at a PPP Supreme Council meeting in Incheon, lamenting that candidates were left to fend for themselves and that voters were not receptive to the party's policies, reflecting continued internal disarray
At a PPP Supreme Council meeting in Incheon, Yoon Sang‑hyun urged “decisive action” from party leadership, highlighting that “party candidates are effectively fending for
Yoon Sang‑hyun dips to 2%2%
At a PPP Supreme Council meeting in Incheon, Yoon Sang‑hyun urged “decisive action” from party leadership, highlighting that “party candidates are effectively fending for themselves” and signalling internal disarray
People Power Party scrambles in capital region; Yoo delays candidate registration to maximize incumbent advantage
Yoo Jeong-bok dips to 4%1%
Strategic delays in registration reflected campaign difficulties, with minimal effect on improving Yoo’s market position.
Democratic Party candidates including Park Chan-dae meet to coordinate campaign strategies, reinforcing party unity and boosting market confidence
Park Chan-dae rises to 95%2%
Democratic Party candidates including Park Chan-dae meet to coordinate campaign strategies, reinforcing party unity and boosting market confidence
Democratic Party nominates Chong Won-o for Seoul mayor, consolidating party strength in key metropolitan races
While not directly about Incheon, the Democratic Party's consolidation in major races like Seoul indicated a broader trend of strong opposition candidates, reinforcing the market's view that Bae June-young's chances were minimal.
Yoon Sang-hyun voiced blunt criticism of the People Power Party's leadership at a Supreme Council meeting in Incheon, emphasizing dire public sentiment and the need for party
Yoon Sang-hyun voiced blunt criticism of the People Power Party's leadership at a Supreme Council meeting in Incheon, emphasizing dire public sentiment and the need for party innovation amid growing challenges from the ruling Democratic Party
At a People Power Party Supreme Council meeting in Incheon, Yoon Sang‑hyun delivers a blunt critique that “public sentiment in Incheon is dire,” prompting traders to push his
At a People Power Party Supreme Council meeting in Incheon, Yoon Sang‑hyun delivers a blunt critique that “public sentiment in Incheon is dire,” prompting traders to push his outcome to zero as the party’s internal rift deepens
Park Chan‑dae pledges job creation and Songdo development, attacking stalled projects
Park Chan‑dae jumps to 84%5%
Park Chan‑dae pledges job creation and Songdo development, attacking stalled projects
Opposition Democratic Party lawmaker Park Chan-dae confirmed as Yoo’s main rival in Incheon mayoral race
Yoo Jeong-bok dips to 5%2%
The confirmation of a strong opponent with growing popularity further pressured Yoo’s market odds downward.
Opposition parties finalize match‑ups;
Park Chan‑dae jumps to 79%6%
Park Chan‑dae set to face incumbent Yoo Jeong‑bok in a one‑on‑one race
Analysis highlights the fierce competition between Park Chan-dae and incumbent Yoo Jeong-bok, with Park's strong local roots and political experience noted
Park Chan-dae rises to 95%2%
Analysis highlights the fierce competition between Park Chan-dae and incumbent Yoo Jeong-bok, with Park's strong local roots and political experience noted
Park Chan‑dae formally announces his candidacy at Incheon City Hall, emphasizing his local roots
Park Chan‑dae rises to 70%2%
Park Chan‑dae formally announces his candidacy at Incheon City Hall, emphasizing his local roots
Park Chan-dae formally announces candidacy at Incheon City Hall, pledging development of four strategic industries including biotechnology and AI
Park Chan-dae rises to 93%1%
Park Chan-dae formally announces candidacy at Incheon City Hall, pledging development of four strategic industries including biotechnology and AI
Democratic Party officially nominates Rep.
Park Chan‑dae jumps to 68%9%
Park Chan‑dae as its Incheon mayoral candidate
Democratic Party officially nominates Park Chan-dae as Incheon mayor candidate, highlighting his leadership and frontline political experience
Park Chan-dae jumps to 92%5%
Democratic Party officially nominates Park Chan-dae as Incheon mayor candidate, highlighting his leadership and frontline political experience
Yoon Sang‑hyun appears on stage at mayor Yoo Jeong‑bok’s autobiography launch, publicly endorsing the incumbent and signaling no independent bid, which depresses market confidence
Yoon Sang‑hyun dips to 0%2%
Yoon Sang‑hyun appears on stage at mayor Yoo Jeong‑bok’s autobiography launch, publicly endorsing the incumbent and signaling no independent bid, which depresses market confidence in his own prospects
Democratic Party confirms Park Chan-dae as sole Incheon mayoral candidate
Park Nam-choon dips to 0%1%
The Democratic Party's reaffirmation of Park Chan-dae as the only candidate for mayor confirmed Park Nam-choon's non-participation, leading to his market
Yoo Jeong-bok signals historic third-term bid as Incheon mayor
Yoo Jeong-bok dips to 7%1%
Yoo publicly raised his flag for a third term, but this had limited positive impact on market
Park Chan‑dae signals intent to run for Incheon mayor, vowing “everything for Incheon”
Park Chan‑dae drops to 43%6%
Park Chan‑dae signals intent to run for Incheon mayor, vowing “everything for Incheon”
Lee Hak-jae resigns as Incheon Airport CEO to run for mayor amid government conflicts
Lee Hak-jae dips to 1%4%
Lee Hak-jae announced his resignation from the airport corporation to pursue the mayoral race, amid public clashes with President Lee Jae-myung and government audits accusing his management of irregularities, which damaged his political standing and caused a sharp.
Park holds a publication ceremony at the National Assembly Library, effectively beginning his mayoral campaign and gaining media attention
Park Chan-dae jumps to 87%9%
Park holds a publication ceremony at the National Assembly Library, effectively beginning his mayoral campaign and gaining media attention
Democratic Party surge lifts its mayoral candidates in polls, including Kim Kyo‑heung – A Chosun English report highlighted a nationwide swing toward the DP, briefly raising
Kim Kyo‑heung rises to 4%2%
Democratic Party surge lifts its mayoral candidates in polls, including Kim Kyo‑heung – A Chosun English report highlighted a nationwide swing toward the DP, briefly raising expectations for all its mayoral hopefuls and nudging Kim’s.
Democratic Party surge in Seoul, Gyeonggi and Incheon lifts DP‑aligned candidates, giving Kim a modest bump in support
Kim Kyo‑heung rises to 4%2%
Democratic Party surge in Seoul, Gyeonggi and Incheon lifts DP‑aligned candidates, giving Kim a modest bump in support
News of a Democratic Party surge in Incheon and other key battlegrounds lifts the party’s overall profile but does not translate into support for Kim Kyo‑heung, keeping his odds
News of a Democratic Party surge in Incheon and other key battlegrounds lifts the party’s overall profile but does not translate into support for Kim Kyo‑heung, keeping his odds near the floor
Reports highlight a surge in Democratic Party candidates in Seoul, Gyeonggi, and Incheon contrasting with People Power Party shortages, indicating increased competition within the party
Kim Kyo-heung dips to 2%4%
This suggests internal party dynamics and competition may have weakened Kim's standing.
People Power Party's Yoo Jeong-bok declares third bid for Incheon mayor
Park Nam-choon dips to 1%1%
Incumbent Mayor Yoo Jeong-bok's official declaration for re-election strengthened his campaign, making it harder for Park Nam-choon to regain relevance in the race.
Park Chan-dae confirmed as the sole Democratic Party candidate for Incheon mayor, solidifying party support and increasing market confidence
Park Chan-dae jumps to 90%11%
Park Chan-dae confirmed as the sole Democratic Party candidate for Incheon mayor, solidifying party support and increasing market confidence
People Power Party officially nominates Yoo Jeong-bok as candidate for Incheon mayor
Yoo Jeong-bok dips to 8%3%
Despite the nomination, Yoo’s market
Kim Kyo-heung holds a publication ceremony with strong party support including former Prime Minister Chung Se-kyun and other lawmakers
Kim Kyo-heung jumps to 6%5%
The event briefly boosted his perceived viability as a candidate due to high-profile endorsements.
At a People's Power Supreme Council meeting in Incheon, Yoon Sang-hyun publicly criticized party leadership for failing to address declining approval and urged emergency reforms,
Yoon Sang-hyun dips to 0%3%
At a People's Power Supreme Council meeting in Incheon, Yoon Sang-hyun publicly criticized party leadership for failing to address declining approval and urged emergency reforms, highlighting the party's vulnerability in the upcoming local elections
People's Power Party Supreme Council meeting highlights internal challenges and calls for unity in Incheon ahead of local elections
Bae June-young dips to 0%1%
At a party meeting, Bae June-young acknowledged the difficulty of winning in Incheon, reflecting internal party concerns and signaling diminished chances for his candidacy.
Park Chan-dae officially announces Incheon mayoral candidacy with biotech development pledge
Park Nam-choon rises to 2%1%
Park Chan-dae's formal announcement and detailed campaign plan focusing on biotechnology industry development solidified his position as the Democratic candidate, further diminishing Park Nam-choon's prospects.
Realmeter poll shows Kim Kyo‑heung trailing incumbent Mayor Yoo Jung‑bok in Incheon – A Realmeter survey cited in the same MK article placed Kim well behind the incumbent,
Kim Kyo‑heung rises to 2%1%
Realmeter poll shows Kim Kyo‑heung trailing incumbent Mayor Yoo Jung‑bok in Incheon – A Realmeter survey cited in the same MK article placed Kim well behind the incumbent, reinforcing market doubts and keeping his.
Polls show Democratic candidates leading against incumbent Yoo Jeong-bok in Incheon mayoral race
Bae June-young dips to 1%2%
Polling data indicated that Democratic Party candidates were leading in head-to-head matchups against Yoo Jeong-bok, signaling a competitive race that further weakened Bae June-young's prospects.
Park Chan-dae officially announces candidacy for Incheon mayor, emphasizing Incheon's biotech industry and pledging emergency public welfare recovery and local currency expansion
Park Chan-dae jumps to 68%11%
Park Chan-dae officially announces candidacy for Incheon mayor, emphasizing Incheon's biotech industry and pledging emergency public welfare recovery and local currency expansion
Democratic Party nominates Park Chan-dae as sole candidate for Incheon mayor
Park Nam-choon dips to 1%2%
The Democratic Party officially selected Park Chan-dae as their sole candidate for Incheon mayor, effectively sidelining Park Nam-choon and reducing his chances of winning, reflected in the market
Prosecutors allege illegal campaign activities by Yoo Jeong-bok; mayor calls indictment politically motivated
Yoo Jeong-bok dips to 16%3%
Further details on the indictment emerged, reinforcing negative sentiment and causing a continued decline in market confidence.
Rep. Park Chan-dae resigns from National Assembly to run for Incheon mayor, proposing the "Incheon Institute of Bioscience and Technology Act" as a key initiative
Park Chan-dae surges to 57%15%
Rep. Park Chan-dae resigns from National Assembly to run for Incheon mayor, proposing the "Incheon Institute of Bioscience and Technology Act" as a key initiative
Incheon Mayor Yoo Jeong-bok indicted on election law violations, casting doubt on his re-election bid
Yoo Jeong-bok plunges to 24%25%
The Incheon District Prosecutors’ Office indicted Mayor Yoo and seven others for violating the Public Official Election Act, severely damaging his political standing and triggering a steep market
Kim Kyo-heung officially declares candidacy for Incheon mayor, pledging to correct the previous mayor's lost four years and proposing five key pledges for Incheon's development
Kim Kyo-heung plunges to 1%46%
This announcement marked the initial peak in market interest, but the immediate sharp drop suggests skepticism or rapid reassessment by traders.
Kim Kyo‑heung officially declares his candidacy for Incheon mayor, pledging to “correct Mayor Yoo Jung‑bok’s lost four years”
Kim Kyo‑heung plunges to 1%46%
Kim Kyo‑heung officially declares his candidacy for Incheon mayor, pledging to “correct Mayor Yoo Jung‑bok’s lost four years”
Kim Kyo‑heung officially announces his candidacy for Incheon mayor – The lawmaker’s formal launch was reported by MK, confirming his entry and immediately prompting traders to
Kim Kyo‑heung plunges to 1%46%
Kim Kyo‑heung officially announces his candidacy for Incheon mayor – The lawmaker’s formal launch was reported by MK, confirming his entry and immediately prompting traders to slash his win probability as the field widened .
Kim Kyo‑heung officially declares his candidacy for Incheon mayor, vowing to “correct Mayor Yoo Jung‑bok’s lost four years”
Kim Kyo‑heung plunges to 1%46%
Kim Kyo‑heung officially declares his candidacy for Incheon mayor, vowing to “correct Mayor Yoo Jung‑bok’s lost four years”
Sharp decline in Yoon Sang-hyun's market
Yoon Sang-hyun plunges to 4%44%
Sharp decline in Yoon Sang-hyun's market
People Power Party Yoo Jeong-bok officially declares third Incheon mayoral bid, emphasizing his record and vision for Incheon
Bae June-young plunges to 4%46%
Yoo Jeong-bok, a prominent People Power Party candidate and incumbent mayor, announced his candidacy for a third term, positioning himself as a strong contender and diminishing market confidence in Bae June-young.
Political insiders report Kim Kyo‑heung will hold a press conference on the 22nd to announce his mayoral run
Kim Kyo‑heung plunges to 1%46%
Political insiders report Kim Kyo‑heung will hold a press conference on the 22nd to announce his mayoral run
Political insiders report Kim will hold a press conference on the 22nd to announce his run, prompting traders to anticipate a crowded field
Kim Kyo‑heung dips to 45%2%
Political insiders report Kim will hold a press conference on the 22nd to announce his run, prompting traders to anticipate a crowded field
Park Nam-choon leans toward parliamentary by-elections instead of mayoral run
Park Nam-choon plunges to 3%47%
Former Incheon Mayor Park Nam-choon reportedly decided against running for mayor again and considered running in parliamentary by-elections instead, signaling his withdrawal from the mayoral race and causing a sharp drop in market confidence.
Lee Hak-jae appointed president of Incheon International Airport Corporation, signaling his potential candidacy for Incheon mayor
Lee Hak-jae, a former three-term lawmaker of the People Power Party, was appointed in June 2023 as president of Incheon International Airport Corporation and was seen as a strong candidate for the 2026 Incheon mayoral election, initially supporting his market.
Yoon Sang‑hyun listed as a leading PPP contender for Incheon mayoral race in early candidate‑field reports, giving the outcome a near‑50 % implied probability
Yoon Sang‑hyun dips to 45%3%
Yoon Sang‑hyun listed as a leading PPP contender for Incheon mayoral race in early candidate‑field reports, giving the outcome a near‑50 % implied probability
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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