Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the absence of any confirmed Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥4 eruptions in 2026 to date, per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program (GVP) data through late April, with 47 total eruptions all below this threshold requiring at least 0.1 km³ tephra volume. This positions zero eruptions at 53.5% implied probability and one at 41.5%, consistent with the historical global average of ~0.6 VEI ≥4 events annually amid typical monitoring by USGS and GVP. Recent weekly reports highlight ongoing but subdued activity—episodic fountaining at Kīlauea (VEI 0-1), pyroclastic flows at Semeru—without escalation to larger explosions. Eight months remain, with seismic and gas monitoring key to potential shifts; next GVP updates expected weekly.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántas erupciones volcánicas grandes (VEI ≥4) en 2026?
¿Cuántas erupciones volcánicas grandes (VEI ≥4) en 2026?
0 54%
1 42%
2 4.8%
3 1.2%
$1,065,525 Vol.
$1,065,525 Vol.
31 dic 2026
0
54%
1
42%
2
5%
3
1%
4
1%
5+
1%
0 54%
1 42%
2 4.8%
3 1.2%
$1,065,525 Vol.
$1,065,525 Vol.
31 dic 2026
0
$476,379 Vol.
54%
1
$260,389 Vol.
42%
2
$32,618 Vol.
5%
3
$24,369 Vol.
1%
4
$21,497 Vol.
1%
5+
$250,273 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the absence of any confirmed Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥4 eruptions in 2026 to date, per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program (GVP) data through late April, with 47 total eruptions all below this threshold requiring at least 0.1 km³ tephra volume. This positions zero eruptions at 53.5% implied probability and one at 41.5%, consistent with the historical global average of ~0.6 VEI ≥4 events annually amid typical monitoring by USGS and GVP. Recent weekly reports highlight ongoing but subdued activity—episodic fountaining at Kīlauea (VEI 0-1), pyroclastic flows at Semeru—without escalation to larger explosions. Eight months remain, with seismic and gas monitoring key to potential shifts; next GVP updates expected weekly.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volumen
$1,065,525Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the absence of any confirmed Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥4 eruptions in 2026 to date, per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program (GVP) data through late April, with 47 total eruptions all below this threshold requiring at least 0.1 km³ tephra volume. This positions zero eruptions at 53.5% implied probability and one at 41.5%, consistent with the historical global average of ~0.6 VEI ≥4 events annually amid typical monitoring by USGS and GVP. Recent weekly reports highlight ongoing but subdued activity—episodic fountaining at Kīlauea (VEI 0-1), pyroclastic flows at Semeru—without escalation to larger explosions. Eight months remain, with seismic and gas monitoring key to potential shifts; next GVP updates expected weekly.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volumen
$1,065,525Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the absence of any confirmed Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥4 eruptions in 2026 to date, per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program (GVP) data through late April, with 47 total eruptions all below this threshold requiring at least 0.1 km³ tephra volume. This positions zero eruptions at 53.5% implied probability and one at 41.5%, consistent with the historical global average of ~0.6 VEI ≥4 events annually amid typical monitoring by USGS and GVP. Recent weekly reports highlight ongoing but subdued activity—episodic fountaining at Kīlauea (VEI 0-1), pyroclastic flows at Semeru—without escalation to larger explosions. Eight months remain, with seismic and gas monitoring key to potential shifts; next GVP updates expected weekly.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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