Traders assign a 65.5% implied probability to zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 because large explosive events remain statistically infrequent, with global averages historically below one per year according to Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records. Current mid-year monitoring from USGS and GVP shows dozens of confirmed eruptions dominated by effusive or low-explosivity activity at sites like Kilauea and Great Sitkin, alongside ash plumes at Semeru and Ibu that have not yet reached VEI 4 thresholds of 0.1 km³ ejecta and 10+ km plumes. Ongoing submarine activity, including the largest explosive event noted so far this year, appears limited in scale and may resolve below the index cutoff. Model consensus and absence of major unrest signals at high-risk calderas reinforce expectations of at most one qualifying eruption before year-end, with new weekly GVP updates and satellite plume data likely to influence odds next.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántas erupciones volcánicas grandes (VEI ≥4) en 2026?
¿Cuántas erupciones volcánicas grandes (VEI ≥4) en 2026?
0 66%
1 20%
2 4.6%
3 1.1%
$1,145,718 Vol.
$1,145,718 Vol.
31 dic 2026
0
66%
1
20%
2
5%
3
1%
4
1%
5+
1%
0 66%
1 20%
2 4.6%
3 1.1%
$1,145,718 Vol.
$1,145,718 Vol.
31 dic 2026
0
$498,131 Vol.
66%
1
$270,864 Vol.
20%
2
$38,832 Vol.
5%
3
$30,748 Vol.
1%
4
$33,045 Vol.
1%
5+
$274,098 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Traders assign a 65.5% implied probability to zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 because large explosive events remain statistically infrequent, with global averages historically below one per year according to Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records. Current mid-year monitoring from USGS and GVP shows dozens of confirmed eruptions dominated by effusive or low-explosivity activity at sites like Kilauea and Great Sitkin, alongside ash plumes at Semeru and Ibu that have not yet reached VEI 4 thresholds of 0.1 km³ ejecta and 10+ km plumes. Ongoing submarine activity, including the largest explosive event noted so far this year, appears limited in scale and may resolve below the index cutoff. Model consensus and absence of major unrest signals at high-risk calderas reinforce expectations of at most one qualifying eruption before year-end, with new weekly GVP updates and satellite plume data likely to influence odds next.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volumen
$1,145,718Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Traders assign a 65.5% implied probability to zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 because large explosive events remain statistically infrequent, with global averages historically below one per year according to Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records. Current mid-year monitoring from USGS and GVP shows dozens of confirmed eruptions dominated by effusive or low-explosivity activity at sites like Kilauea and Great Sitkin, alongside ash plumes at Semeru and Ibu that have not yet reached VEI 4 thresholds of 0.1 km³ ejecta and 10+ km plumes. Ongoing submarine activity, including the largest explosive event noted so far this year, appears limited in scale and may resolve below the index cutoff. Model consensus and absence of major unrest signals at high-risk calderas reinforce expectations of at most one qualifying eruption before year-end, with new weekly GVP updates and satellite plume data likely to influence odds next.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volumen
$1,145,718Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders assign a 65.5% implied probability to zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 because large explosive events remain statistically infrequent, with global averages historically below one per year according to Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records. Current mid-year monitoring from USGS and GVP shows dozens of confirmed eruptions dominated by effusive or low-explosivity activity at sites like Kilauea and Great Sitkin, alongside ash plumes at Semeru and Ibu that have not yet reached VEI 4 thresholds of 0.1 km³ ejecta and 10+ km plumes. Ongoing submarine activity, including the largest explosive event noted so far this year, appears limited in scale and may resolve below the index cutoff. Model consensus and absence of major unrest signals at high-risk calderas reinforce expectations of at most one qualifying eruption before year-end, with new weekly GVP updates and satellite plume data likely to influence odds next.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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