Recent Q1 2026 GDP data at a 1.6% annualized rate, revised lower from the advance estimate, combined with fiscal stimulus from the 2025 reconciliation act and AI-driven investment, underpin the 45% market-implied probability for full-year growth above 2.5%. Offsetting these positives are elevated energy prices from the Middle East conflict, tariff effects weighing on consumption and imports, and moderating consumer spending amid higher inflation. Official projections from the CBO at 2.2% and Philadelphia Fed survey at 2.5% reflect this balance, with trader positioning also pricing meaningful odds on the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% ranges given labor market softening and policy uncertainties ahead of further data releases.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCrecimiento del PIB en 2026
Crecimiento del PIB en 2026
>2,5% 45%
1,5–2,0% 17.7%
2.0–2.5% 14%
1.0–1.5% 12.0%
$30,014 Vol.
$30,014 Vol.
29 ene 2027
<0.5%
5%
0.5–1.0%
5%
1.0–1.5%
12%
1,5–2,0%
18%
2.0–2.5%
14%
>2,5%
45%
>2,5% 45%
1,5–2,0% 17.7%
2.0–2.5% 14%
1.0–1.5% 12.0%
$30,014 Vol.
$30,014 Vol.
29 ene 2027
<0.5%
$4,111 Vol.
5%
0.5–1.0%
$15,519 Vol.
5%
1.0–1.5%
$1,936 Vol.
12%
1,5–2,0%
$1,978 Vol.
18%
2.0–2.5%
$2,150 Vol.
14%
>2,5%
$4,320 Vol.
45%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q1 2026 GDP data at a 1.6% annualized rate, revised lower from the advance estimate, combined with fiscal stimulus from the 2025 reconciliation act and AI-driven investment, underpin the 45% market-implied probability for full-year growth above 2.5%. Offsetting these positives are elevated energy prices from the Middle East conflict, tariff effects weighing on consumption and imports, and moderating consumer spending amid higher inflation. Official projections from the CBO at 2.2% and Philadelphia Fed survey at 2.5% reflect this balance, with trader positioning also pricing meaningful odds on the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% ranges given labor market softening and policy uncertainties ahead of further data releases.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Volumen
$30,014Fecha de finalización
29 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q1 2026 GDP data at a 1.6% annualized rate, revised lower from the advance estimate, combined with fiscal stimulus from the 2025 reconciliation act and AI-driven investment, underpin the 45% market-implied probability for full-year growth above 2.5%. Offsetting these positives are elevated energy prices from the Middle East conflict, tariff effects weighing on consumption and imports, and moderating consumer spending amid higher inflation. Official projections from the CBO at 2.2% and Philadelphia Fed survey at 2.5% reflect this balance, with trader positioning also pricing meaningful odds on the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% ranges given labor market softening and policy uncertainties ahead of further data releases.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$30,014Fecha de finalización
29 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Q1 2026 GDP data at a 1.6% annualized rate, revised lower from the advance estimate, combined with fiscal stimulus from the 2025 reconciliation act and AI-driven investment, underpin the 45% market-implied probability for full-year growth above 2.5%. Offsetting these positives are elevated energy prices from the Middle East conflict, tariff effects weighing on consumption and imports, and moderating consumer spending amid higher inflation. Official projections from the CBO at 2.2% and Philadelphia Fed survey at 2.5% reflect this balance, with trader positioning also pricing meaningful odds on the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% ranges given labor market softening and policy uncertainties ahead of further data releases.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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