Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, with April 2026 headline PCE at 3.8% and core measures remaining elevated amid energy price pressures and tariff effects, has anchored trader expectations for a steady federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. Recent FOMC meetings in March and April delivered pauses, consistent with official projections showing only one potential 25-basis-point cut for the year and market-implied odds near 99% for no change at the June 16-17 gathering. Stable labor market conditions, with unemployment near its longer-run rate and moderating wage growth, further reinforce the higher-for-longer policy stance priced into futures. A sharp deterioration in employment data or a rapid disinflation surprise could still introduce volatility, though such shifts appear limited in current consensus forecasts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoPausar–pausar–pausar 99.7%
Otro <1%
Pausa–Pausa–Recorte <1%
$1,852,866 Vol.
$1,852,866 Vol.
17 jun 2026
Pausar–pausar–pausar
100%
Otro
<1%
Pausa–Pausa–Recorte
<1%
Pausar–pausar–pausar 99.7%
Otro <1%
Pausa–Pausa–Recorte <1%
$1,852,866 Vol.
$1,852,866 Vol.
17 jun 2026
Pausar–pausar–pausar
$380,703 Vol.
100%
Otro
$367,160 Vol.
<1%
Pausa–Pausa–Recorte
$366,867 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, with April 2026 headline PCE at 3.8% and core measures remaining elevated amid energy price pressures and tariff effects, has anchored trader expectations for a steady federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. Recent FOMC meetings in March and April delivered pauses, consistent with official projections showing only one potential 25-basis-point cut for the year and market-implied odds near 99% for no change at the June 16-17 gathering. Stable labor market conditions, with unemployment near its longer-run rate and moderating wage growth, further reinforce the higher-for-longer policy stance priced into futures. A sharp deterioration in employment data or a rapid disinflation surprise could still introduce volatility, though such shifts appear limited in current consensus forecasts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercado abierto: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volumen
$1,852,866Fecha de finalización
17 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, with April 2026 headline PCE at 3.8% and core measures remaining elevated amid energy price pressures and tariff effects, has anchored trader expectations for a steady federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. Recent FOMC meetings in March and April delivered pauses, consistent with official projections showing only one potential 25-basis-point cut for the year and market-implied odds near 99% for no change at the June 16-17 gathering. Stable labor market conditions, with unemployment near its longer-run rate and moderating wage growth, further reinforce the higher-for-longer policy stance priced into futures. A sharp deterioration in employment data or a rapid disinflation surprise could still introduce volatility, though such shifts appear limited in current consensus forecasts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$1,852,866Fecha de finalización
17 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, with April 2026 headline PCE at 3.8% and core measures remaining elevated amid energy price pressures and tariff effects, has anchored trader expectations for a steady federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. Recent FOMC meetings in March and April delivered pauses, consistent with official projections showing only one potential 25-basis-point cut for the year and market-implied odds near 99% for no change at the June 16-17 gathering. Stable labor market conditions, with unemployment near its longer-run rate and moderating wage growth, further reinforce the higher-for-longer policy stance priced into futures. A sharp deterioration in employment data or a rapid disinflation surprise could still introduce volatility, though such shifts appear limited in current consensus forecasts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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