The Senate Banking Committee's 13-11 party-line vote on April 29 advanced Kevin Warsh's nomination as Federal Reserve chair to the full Senate, resolving a GOP holdout from Sen. Thom Tillis after the DOJ ended its Powell probe and signaling momentum with a May floor vote eyed before Jerome Powell's May 15 term end. Amid Republicans' 53-47 majority, trader consensus reflects tight odds—no vote by Dec. 31 or withdrawal at 31%, ≤49 yes votes at 27%—driven by Democratic filibuster threats needing 60 for cloture, Warsh's hawkish views raising independence concerns, and potential delays despite Fetterman crossover support. Senate Majority Leader Thune's cloture push or further senator pledges could tip toward 51-55 yes votes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSin votación antes del 31 de diciembre/Retirado 30.2%
60 o más 15%
52 10.7%
51 10%
$64,650 Vol.
$64,650 Vol.
31 dic 2026
≤49
27%
50
5%
51
15%
52
11%
53
9%
54
8%
55
25%
56
2%
57
5%
58
6%
59
2%
60 o más
15%
Sin votación antes del 31 de diciembre/Retirado
30%
Sin votación antes del 31 de diciembre/Retirado 30.2%
60 o más 15%
52 10.7%
51 10%
$64,650 Vol.
$64,650 Vol.
31 dic 2026
≤49
$21,077 Vol.
27%
50
$0 Vol.
5%
51
$232 Vol.
15%
52
$549 Vol.
11%
53
$372 Vol.
9%
54
$321 Vol.
8%
55
$0 Vol.
25%
56
$52 Vol.
2%
57
$0 Vol.
5%
58
$0 Vol.
6%
59
$388 Vol.
2%
60 o más
$41,478 Vol.
15%
Sin votación antes del 31 de diciembre/Retirado
$182 Vol.
30%
This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.The Senate Banking Committee's 13-11 party-line vote on April 29 advanced Kevin Warsh's nomination as Federal Reserve chair to the full Senate, resolving a GOP holdout from Sen. Thom Tillis after the DOJ ended its Powell probe and signaling momentum with a May floor vote eyed before Jerome Powell's May 15 term end. Amid Republicans' 53-47 majority, trader consensus reflects tight odds—no vote by Dec. 31 or withdrawal at 31%, ≤49 yes votes at 27%—driven by Democratic filibuster threats needing 60 for cloture, Warsh's hawkish views raising independence concerns, and potential delays despite Fetterman crossover support. Senate Majority Leader Thune's cloture push or further senator pledges could tip toward 51-55 yes votes.
This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Jan 13, 2026, 6:13 PM ET
Volumen
$64,650Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 13, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.The Senate Banking Committee's 13-11 party-line vote on April 29 advanced Kevin Warsh's nomination as Federal Reserve chair to the full Senate, resolving a GOP holdout from Sen. Thom Tillis after the DOJ ended its Powell probe and signaling momentum with a May floor vote eyed before Jerome Powell's May 15 term end. Amid Republicans' 53-47 majority, trader consensus reflects tight odds—no vote by Dec. 31 or withdrawal at 31%, ≤49 yes votes at 27%—driven by Democratic filibuster threats needing 60 for cloture, Warsh's hawkish views raising independence concerns, and potential delays despite Fetterman crossover support. Senate Majority Leader Thune's cloture push or further senator pledges could tip toward 51-55 yes votes.
This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$64,650Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 13, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Senate Banking Committee's 13-11 party-line vote on April 29 advanced Kevin Warsh's nomination as Federal Reserve chair to the full Senate, resolving a GOP holdout from Sen. Thom Tillis after the DOJ ended its Powell probe and signaling momentum with a May floor vote eyed before Jerome Powell's May 15 term end. Amid Republicans' 53-47 majority, trader consensus reflects tight odds—no vote by Dec. 31 or withdrawal at 31%, ≤49 yes votes at 27%—driven by Democratic filibuster threats needing 60 for cloture, Warsh's hawkish views raising independence concerns, and potential delays despite Fetterman crossover support. Senate Majority Leader Thune's cloture push or further senator pledges could tip toward 51-55 yes votes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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