Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 95.5% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining steady fed funds rates across its March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings—Pause–Pause–Pause—reflecting real capital backing amid persistent inflation above the 2% target. This strong positioning stems from the April 28-29 FOMC's decision to hold the 3.50%-3.75% range, echoing March's pause, as Chair Powell highlighted sticky price pressures evidenced by March CPI's 3.3% year-over-year rise—the hottest since mid-2024—and resilient nonfarm payroll gains. Markets price in caution against premature easing given elevated energy costs and solid labor data. Realistic challenges include softer-than-expected April CPI (due May 12) or weakening May jobs report ahead of the June 16-17 meeting, potentially reviving cut odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoPausar–pausar–pausar 96%
Pausa–Pausa–Recorte 3.9%
Otro 1.6%
$1,028,523 Vol.
$1,028,523 Vol.
17 jun 2026
Pausar–pausar–pausar
96%
Pausa–Pausa–Recorte
4%
Otro
2%
Pausar–pausar–pausar 96%
Pausa–Pausa–Recorte 3.9%
Otro 1.6%
$1,028,523 Vol.
$1,028,523 Vol.
17 jun 2026
Pausar–pausar–pausar
$41,891 Vol.
96%
Pausa–Pausa–Recorte
$20,114 Vol.
4%
Otro
$221,176 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 95.5% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining steady fed funds rates across its March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings—Pause–Pause–Pause—reflecting real capital backing amid persistent inflation above the 2% target. This strong positioning stems from the April 28-29 FOMC's decision to hold the 3.50%-3.75% range, echoing March's pause, as Chair Powell highlighted sticky price pressures evidenced by March CPI's 3.3% year-over-year rise—the hottest since mid-2024—and resilient nonfarm payroll gains. Markets price in caution against premature easing given elevated energy costs and solid labor data. Realistic challenges include softer-than-expected April CPI (due May 12) or weakening May jobs report ahead of the June 16-17 meeting, potentially reviving cut odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercado abierto: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volumen
$1,028,523Fecha de finalización
17 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 95.5% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining steady fed funds rates across its March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings—Pause–Pause–Pause—reflecting real capital backing amid persistent inflation above the 2% target. This strong positioning stems from the April 28-29 FOMC's decision to hold the 3.50%-3.75% range, echoing March's pause, as Chair Powell highlighted sticky price pressures evidenced by March CPI's 3.3% year-over-year rise—the hottest since mid-2024—and resilient nonfarm payroll gains. Markets price in caution against premature easing given elevated energy costs and solid labor data. Realistic challenges include softer-than-expected April CPI (due May 12) or weakening May jobs report ahead of the June 16-17 meeting, potentially reviving cut odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$1,028,523Fecha de finalización
17 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 95.5% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining steady fed funds rates across its March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings—Pause–Pause–Pause—reflecting real capital backing amid persistent inflation above the 2% target. This strong positioning stems from the April 28-29 FOMC's decision to hold the 3.50%-3.75% range, echoing March's pause, as Chair Powell highlighted sticky price pressures evidenced by March CPI's 3.3% year-over-year rise—the hottest since mid-2024—and resilient nonfarm payroll gains. Markets price in caution against premature easing given elevated energy costs and solid labor data. Realistic challenges include softer-than-expected April CPI (due May 12) or weakening May jobs report ahead of the June 16-17 meeting, potentially reviving cut odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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