Polymarket traders assign an 83% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate target range of 3.50%-3.75% across the April, June, and July 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting strong consensus for a sustained pause amid resurgent inflation pressures. The April 29 decision to hold rates steady—despite a rare 8-4 dissent—came after March CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year, driven by a 10.9% energy surge tied to the Iran conflict, underscoring sticky inflation and economic resilience. Fed funds futures corroborate this steady path around 3.6%, with "Other" outcomes at 13% capturing tail risks. Key catalysts ahead include May 12 CPI data and early-May nonfarm payrolls, which could influence June 17-18 expectations before Chair Powell's May 15 departure.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoPause–Pause–Pause 83%
Other 13%
Pause–Pause–Cut 10%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$46,984 Vol.
$46,984 Vol.
29 jul 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
83%
Pause–Pause–Cut
10%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
13%
Pause–Pause–Pause 83%
Other 13%
Pause–Pause–Cut 10%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$46,984 Vol.
$46,984 Vol.
29 jul 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$1,941 Vol.
83%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$1,327 Vol.
10%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$1,157 Vol.
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$1,092 Vol.
<1%
Other
$1,481 Vol.
13%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders assign an 83% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate target range of 3.50%-3.75% across the April, June, and July 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting strong consensus for a sustained pause amid resurgent inflation pressures. The April 29 decision to hold rates steady—despite a rare 8-4 dissent—came after March CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year, driven by a 10.9% energy surge tied to the Iran conflict, underscoring sticky inflation and economic resilience. Fed funds futures corroborate this steady path around 3.6%, with "Other" outcomes at 13% capturing tail risks. Key catalysts ahead include May 12 CPI data and early-May nonfarm payrolls, which could influence June 17-18 expectations before Chair Powell's May 15 departure.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
Volumen
$46,984Fecha de finalización
29 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders assign an 83% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate target range of 3.50%-3.75% across the April, June, and July 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting strong consensus for a sustained pause amid resurgent inflation pressures. The April 29 decision to hold rates steady—despite a rare 8-4 dissent—came after March CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year, driven by a 10.9% energy surge tied to the Iran conflict, underscoring sticky inflation and economic resilience. Fed funds futures corroborate this steady path around 3.6%, with "Other" outcomes at 13% capturing tail risks. Key catalysts ahead include May 12 CPI data and early-May nonfarm payrolls, which could influence June 17-18 expectations before Chair Powell's May 15 departure.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$46,984Fecha de finalización
29 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders assign an 83% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate target range of 3.50%-3.75% across the April, June, and July 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting strong consensus for a sustained pause amid resurgent inflation pressures. The April 29 decision to hold rates steady—despite a rare 8-4 dissent—came after March CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year, driven by a 10.9% energy surge tied to the Iran conflict, underscoring sticky inflation and economic resilience. Fed funds futures corroborate this steady path around 3.6%, with "Other" outcomes at 13% capturing tail risks. Key catalysts ahead include May 12 CPI data and early-May nonfarm payrolls, which could influence June 17-18 expectations before Chair Powell's May 15 departure.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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