Eurostat's flash estimate on April 30 revealed Eurozone Q1 2026 GDP growth of just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, missing consensus expectations of 0.2% and signaling a sharp slowdown from Q4 2025's 0.3%, which has anchored trader consensus around subdued annual expansion with 1.0-2.0% priced at 35% implied probability. This closely contested positioning—versus <0% recession odds at 27.5% and 0-1.0% at 23.4%—reflects ECB March staff projections of 0.9% full-year growth amid sticky inflation rebounding to 3% in April, stable 6.2% unemployment, and tumbling economic sentiment. Upside tail risks in 6-7% (19.1%) and 7%+ (21.4%) bins price potential fiscal stimuli like German expansion or ECB easing, with Q2 data and June policy meeting as key differentiators.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado0-1,0% 38.5%
1,0-2,0% 30%
<0% 27.9%
2,0-3,0% 9%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 ene 2027
<0%
28%
0-1,0%
23%
1,0-2,0%
34%
2,0-3,0%
9%
3,0-4,0%
4%
4,0-5,0%
4%
5,0-6,0%
4%
6,0-7,0%
32%
7.0%+
17%
0-1,0% 38.5%
1,0-2,0% 30%
<0% 27.9%
2,0-3,0% 9%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 ene 2027
<0%
$770 Vol.
28%
0-1,0%
$605 Vol.
23%
1,0-2,0%
$1,417 Vol.
34%
2,0-3,0%
$617 Vol.
9%
3,0-4,0%
$533 Vol.
4%
4,0-5,0%
$1,448 Vol.
4%
5,0-6,0%
$610 Vol.
4%
6,0-7,0%
$1,280 Vol.
32%
7.0%+
$1,033 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Eurostat's flash estimate on April 30 revealed Eurozone Q1 2026 GDP growth of just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, missing consensus expectations of 0.2% and signaling a sharp slowdown from Q4 2025's 0.3%, which has anchored trader consensus around subdued annual expansion with 1.0-2.0% priced at 35% implied probability. This closely contested positioning—versus <0% recession odds at 27.5% and 0-1.0% at 23.4%—reflects ECB March staff projections of 0.9% full-year growth amid sticky inflation rebounding to 3% in April, stable 6.2% unemployment, and tumbling economic sentiment. Upside tail risks in 6-7% (19.1%) and 7%+ (21.4%) bins price potential fiscal stimuli like German expansion or ECB easing, with Q2 data and June policy meeting as key differentiators.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volumen
$8,312Fecha de finalización
31 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Eurostat's flash estimate on April 30 revealed Eurozone Q1 2026 GDP growth of just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, missing consensus expectations of 0.2% and signaling a sharp slowdown from Q4 2025's 0.3%, which has anchored trader consensus around subdued annual expansion with 1.0-2.0% priced at 35% implied probability. This closely contested positioning—versus <0% recession odds at 27.5% and 0-1.0% at 23.4%—reflects ECB March staff projections of 0.9% full-year growth amid sticky inflation rebounding to 3% in April, stable 6.2% unemployment, and tumbling economic sentiment. Upside tail risks in 6-7% (19.1%) and 7%+ (21.4%) bins price potential fiscal stimuli like German expansion or ECB easing, with Q2 data and June policy meeting as key differentiators.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$8,312Fecha de finalización
31 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Eurostat's flash estimate on April 30 revealed Eurozone Q1 2026 GDP growth of just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, missing consensus expectations of 0.2% and signaling a sharp slowdown from Q4 2025's 0.3%, which has anchored trader consensus around subdued annual expansion with 1.0-2.0% priced at 35% implied probability. This closely contested positioning—versus <0% recession odds at 27.5% and 0-1.0% at 23.4%—reflects ECB March staff projections of 0.9% full-year growth amid sticky inflation rebounding to 3% in April, stable 6.2% unemployment, and tumbling economic sentiment. Upside tail risks in 6-7% (19.1%) and 7%+ (21.4%) bins price potential fiscal stimuli like German expansion or ECB easing, with Q2 data and June policy meeting as key differentiators.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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