Trader consensus places Gavin Newsom ahead in the wide-open 2028 Democratic field due to his high national profile as California governor, frequent media appearances opposing the current administration, and recent populist positioning on issues such as AI regulation. Early national polls show a tighter race with Kamala Harris often competitive or leading on name recognition, while Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Pete Buttigieg draw support from distinct wings. Jon Ossoff and other senators benefit from potential 2026 midterm gains that could raise their visibility. Key differentiators include fundraising capacity, state-level records on economy and crime, and ability to unify progressive and moderate voters ahead of primaries. Support could consolidate around any contender demonstrating broad appeal in early state contests or strong opposition messaging.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoJon Ossoff gains momentum in Democratic nomination market
Jon Ossoff rises to 9%2%
Ossoff's market price rose from 7% to 9% by June 13, 2026, reflecting growing perception of his viability as a candidate, bolstered by his Senate race performance and broad appeal within the Democratic Party.
Gavin Newsom Hosts Hunter Biden on Podcast for Extended Interview
Gavin Newsom dips to 23%1%
California Governor Gavin Newsom hosted Hunter Biden on his podcast for a 95-minute interview, drawing national media attention to his platform as he continues to build his national profile ahead of a potential 2028 run.
Prediction markets warm to Jon Ossoff for 2028 as Gavin Newsom slips
Jon Ossoff rises to 9%2%
Prediction markets reflected growing enthusiasm for Jon Ossoff as a 2028 contender, with his market price rising to 9%, while Gavin Newsom's price declined. This was influenced by Ossoff's strong Senate reelection prospects and increased media attention, signaling a shift in perceived frontrunner status.
Gina Raimondo Rules Out 2028 Presidential Run, Endorses Open Primary
Former Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo distanced herself from the 2028 presidential race, pouring cold water on a potential run and advocating for a competitive, open primary for the Democratic ticket.
Georgia Republican Senate Primary Ends in Runoff to Challenge Jon Ossoff
Jon Ossoff rises to 6%1%
The Republican primary to challenge Senator Jon Ossoff ended in a runoff between Mike Collins and Derek Dooley. The failure of the GOP to quickly unite behind a single challenger boosted Ossoff's reelection outlook and his 2028 presidential market odds.
Josh Shapiro and Stacy Garrity prepare for Pennsylvania gubernatorial showdown
The upcoming Pennsylvania governor race between Josh Shapiro and Stacy Garrity has drawn national attention, with Shapiro's strong position bolstering his profile as a potential 2028 presidential candidate, supporting his market odds.
Gavin Newsom hits peak market support amid 2028 speculation
Gavin Newsom rises to 27%3%
Newsom's market price peaked at 27% on June 1, 2026, reflecting heightened optimism about his candidacy following his final State of the State speech and increased media attention positioning him as a leading contender.
Gavin Newsom maintains lead in fragmented 2028 Democratic nomination market
Gavin Newsom rises to 25%1%
Despite fluctuations, Newsom remains the front-runner with about 25% market probability, reflecting sustained trader confidence.
Jon Ossoff gains momentum as a 2028 Democratic presidential contender amid Senate reelection campaign
Jon Ossoff rises to 7%2%
Senator Jon Ossoff's rising profile as a young, charismatic leader and his active campaign for Senate reelection in Georgia increased his visibility as a potential 2028 presidential candidate. Media coverage and political commentary boosted market confidence, raising his price from 5% to 7%.
Jon Ossoff Launches High-Profile Joint Campaign Rally in Atlanta to Boost Reelection Bid
Jon Ossoff rises to 7%2%
Senator Jon Ossoff held a major joint campaign rally with gubernatorial nominee Keisha Lance Bottoms at The Tabernacle in Atlanta, delivering a powerful speech that energized the Democratic base and highlighted their head start over Republicans.
Pete Buttigieg leads early 2028 Democratic presidential polls
Polls in mid-2026 showed Pete Buttigieg leading among potential Democratic 2028 presidential candidates, reinforcing his market position as a serious contender despite no formal campaign announcement.
Gretchen Whitmer Walks Back Statement Ruling Out 2028 Presidential Run
Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer initially stated she would not make a bid for the White House in 2028, but quickly walked back the statement, keeping her options open and maintaining the highly fragmented nature of the Democratic field.
Pete Buttigieg tops new 2028 Democratic presidential primary poll
An Emerson College poll placed Buttigieg at 18%, ahead of Newsom and others, boosting his market position.
Democratic candidates Josh Shapiro and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez maintain low market prices amid ongoing controversies
Both Shapiro and Ocasio-Cortez's market prices remained low due to lingering controversies and challenges within the Democratic Party, reflecting skepticism about their 2028 nomination chances.
Gavin Newsom’s poll surge after high‑profile endorsement by Hollywood star
Gavin Newsom dips to 24%2%
A late‑May endorsement from a major Hollywood figure boosted Newsom’s visibility and poll numbers, nudging his market price slightly higher despite overall market volatility.
Josh Shapiro faces scrutiny over handling of harassment claims and security upgrades
Josh Shapiro plunges to 5%45%
Governor Josh Shapiro's handling of sexual harassment claims and use of taxpayer funds for security upgrades drew criticism, potentially weakening his political standing and contributing to a decline in his market price.
Pete Buttigieg campaigns for Democrats ahead of midterms, signaling 2028 ambitions
Buttigieg's active campaigning for Democrats in key races ahead of the 2026 midterms increased his visibility and speculation about a 2028 presidential run, stabilizing his market price around 4%.
Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear hints at 2028 presidential run
Andy Beshear rises to 3%1%
Beshear expressed comfort with being named a potential 2028 presidential candidate but deferred formal decision until after his term as chair of the Democratic Governors Association ends, supporting a modest market rise to 3%.
Andy Beshear comfortable being named potential 2028 Democratic candidate
Andy Beshear rises to 3%1%
Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear expressed comfort with being discussed as a potential 2028 presidential candidate, signaling his interest and causing a slight market price increase.
Turning Point USA endorses JD Vance for 2028 president, highlighting GOP unity
The endorsement of JD Vance by a major conservative group signaled early GOP consolidation, contrasting with the fragmented Democratic field and indirectly affecting Democratic nominee market dynamics, including Newsom's prospects.
Poll shows Gavin Newsom leads Democratic field with 24% support for 2028 nomination
A late‑May poll of Democratic voters placed Newsom at 24% support, the highest among all potential nominees, reinforcing his market price increase to the endpoint of 24% and confirming his status as the market’s front‑runner.
Zohran Mamdani sworn in as New York City mayor, pledges democratic socialism
Mamdani's inauguration as NYC mayor and his commitment to democratic socialism, supported by figures like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, highlighted the progressive wing's influence, impacting Ocasio-Cortez's market perception.
Gavin Newsom visits New Hampshire on book tour, fueling 2028 speculation
Newsom's visit to New Hampshire, a key early primary state, for his book tour generated buzz about his national ambitions and increased speculation about a 2028 presidential run, supporting his market price around 24%.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez discusses 2028 presidential ambitions in interview with David Axelrod
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 9%1%
Ocasio-Cortez spoke about her ambition to change the country and did not rule out a 2028 presidential run, maintaining interest in her candidacy despite declining market prices.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Teases National Ambitions in Axelrod Interview
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 9%1%
Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez stated her ambition is to 'change this country' during an interview with David Axelrod, fueling speculation about a 2028 presidential bid.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez expresses ambition to 'change this country' amid 2028 speculation
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 9%1%
In a May 2026 interview, AOC stated her ambition is to change the country, fueling speculation about a 2028 presidential run and stabilizing her market odds after a steep decline from earlier highs.
Pete Buttigieg signals 2028 presidential run at National Action Network convention
Pete Buttigieg rises to 5%1%
Buttigieg responded to a question about running again in 2028 with 'You save me a seat. I'll be there,' signaling his intention to run and boosting his market position as a leading contender.
Mark Kelly’s profile rises after legal victory against Trump administration
Kelly’s legal win against the Trump administration’s actions elevated his national standing and fundraising, boosting speculation about a 2028 presidential run and increasing his market price slightly.
Andy Beshear gains national attention as Democratic Governors Association chair
Beshear's election as chair of the Democratic Governors Association and national exposure raised his profile as a potential 2028 candidate, maintaining his market price around 3%.
Josh Shapiro and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez clash over midterm congressional race
Josh Shapiro rises to 6%1%
Reports of intra-party conflict between Shapiro and Ocasio-Cortez affected their market prices, reflecting ongoing controversies.
Andy Beshear signs emergency orders to freeze Kentucky gas tax amid affordability concerns
Beshear's actions to address economic issues in Kentucky reinforced his image as a pragmatic leader, supporting his consideration as a 2028 presidential contender.
Kamala Harris endorses Karen Bass in Los Angeles mayoral race
Kamala Harris rises to 10%2%
Kamala Harris's endorsement of Karen Bass in the LA mayoral race signaled her continued influence in California politics and strategic positioning ahead of 2028, affecting her market standing.
Halle Berry criticizes Newsom for vetoing menopause bill, questioning presidential suitability
Gavin Newsom dips to 25%2%
Berry's public condemnation of Newsom's veto on women's health legislation raised questions about his support among female voters, impacting his market price.
California launches free‑diaper program for newborns
Gavin Newsom dips to 25%1%
The new social‑policy initiative showcased Newsom’s focus on family‑friendly measures, slightly raising his profile among progressive voters and nudging his market price upward.
Kamala Harris regains some market support amid speculation of 2028 presidential run
Kamala Harris jumps to 11%7%
Harris's market price rose slightly due to renewed speculation about her potential 2028 presidential candidacy and public appearances.
Halle Berry criticizes Newsom for vetoing menopause bill, questions presidential suitability
Gavin Newsom dips to 25%1%
Actress Halle Berry publicly condemned Newsom for vetoing menopause-related legislation, framing it as devaluing women and questioning his presidential prospects, impacting his public image.
Kamala Harris' nomination chances briefly rebound amid speculation of 2028 bid
Kamala Harris rises to 10%4%
Speculation about Harris considering a 2028 presidential run led to a temporary increase in her market price, reflecting renewed interest in her candidacy despite earlier declines.
Gavin Newsom praises Canadian PM Mark Carney's stance against Trump at Davos
Newsom's endorsement of Carney's criticism of Trump reinforced his positioning as a progressive leader opposing Trump, maintaining his market support.
Josh Shapiro raises $30 million for Pennsylvania governor reelection
Shapiro's record fundraising for his reelection bid elevated his profile as a potential 2028 presidential candidate, though his market price remained low due to prior controversies.
Rahm Emanuel’s endorsement of another candidate sidelines his own prospects
Emanuel publicly endorsed a fellow Democrat, effectively ending his own campaign and driving his market price down to the lowest level.
San Jose mayor Matt Mahan criticizes Newsom’s handling of homelessness and crime
Gavin Newsom rises to 27%2%
Mahan, a critic of Newsom and candidate for California governor, emphasized his moderate stance and record on homelessness and crime, challenging Newsom’s legacy and potentially impacting his presidential bid.
Rahm Emanuel’s support erodes after policy disagreement with party leadership
Rahm Emanuel rises to 3%1%
Emanuel’s public clash with Democratic leadership over a tax proposal reduced his appeal, moving his market price from 2% to 3% as some voters shifted away.
Tom Steyer’s massive ad spend fails to boost his poll numbers
Gavin Newsom rises to 33%3%
Despite spending over $115 million on advertising in the California governor race, Steyer’s polling remained flat, signaling limited impact on national perception of Democratic leaders and contributing to a modest rise in Newsom’s price from 30% to 33% as he emerged as the clear front‑runner.
Gavin Newsom's national profile grows with aggressive media strategy
Gavin Newsom rises to 26%2%
Newsom's adoption of a combative online presence and podcasting increased his visibility and appeal to a broader audience, supporting a price rebound from 24% to 26%.
Newsom’s national rise shapes public perception ahead of 2028 run
Gavin Newsom rises to 26%2%
Newsom’s strategic communication style and outreach to conservative audiences enhanced his national profile, supporting his market position.
Narcan training highlights community engagement amid Newsom's rising profile
Community-focused events like Narcan training reflect Newsom's ongoing engagement with public health issues, supporting steady market confidence around 26%.
Poll shows Democratic primary voters favor less‑established candidates over Newsom
Gavin Newsom rises to 28%3%
A mid‑year poll indicated voters were leaning toward newer faces, causing Newsom’s price to rise modestly to 28% while the odds for other front‑runners fell further.
Gavin Newsom delivers final State of the State speech, touts California as national model
Gavin Newsom rises to 28%3%
Newsom's final State of the State address emphasized California's progressive policies and opposition to federal overreach, boosting his national profile and slightly increasing his nomination market price.
Halle Berry criticizes Newsom for vetoing menopause bill
Gavin Newsom dips to 24%2%
Actress Halle Berry publicly condemned Governor Newsom for vetoing a menopause-related healthcare bill, accusing him of devaluing women. This criticism from a high-profile advocate brought negative attention to Newsom's record on women's health, potentially affecting his presidential prospects.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race
Gavin Newsom rises to 27%2%
Mahan's entry added a moderate Democratic candidate critical of Newsom, influencing the dynamics of the governor's race and potentially Newsom's 2028 prospects, reflected in minor market fluctuations.
Kamala Harris gains momentum amid California governor race and national positioning
Kamala Harris rises to 8%3%
Kamala Harris's market price rose from 5% to 8% in mid-April 2026, reflecting increased attention as a potential 2028 nominee, possibly boosted by Newsom's weakening position and her own national profile.
California proposes K-12 education governance reform under Newsom
Gavin Newsom dips to 25%2%
Newsom proposed shifting more power to the governor and State Board of Education to streamline K-12 governance, signaling his focus on education reform as part of his leadership portfolio.
Pete Buttigieg signals 2028 presidential ambitions at National Action Network convention
Buttigieg's public remarks at a major Democratic event increased speculation about his 2028 run, supporting a market price around 4%.
Newsom faces $2.9 billion budget deficit in final year as California governor
Gavin Newsom dips to 25%2%
The budget shortfall constrained Newsom's ability to advance new programs, potentially weakening his presidential bid and causing a slight market decline.
Trump mocks Newsom's dyslexia, sparking public debate
Gavin Newsom rises to 28%1%
Trump's attacks on Newsom's dyslexia brought national attention to Newsom's personal challenges and resilience, influencing public perception and market sentiment.
Pete Buttigieg hints at 2028 presidential run at National Action Network convention
Buttigieg's public remarks signaling a 2028 presidential run and media appearances increased his visibility and market odds as a leading Democratic contender.
Kamala Harris hints at 2028 presidential run at National Action Network event
Kamala Harris rises to 9%3%
Former Vice President Kamala Harris publicly indicated she is 'thinking about' running for president again in 2028 during an event with Rev. Al Sharpton, raising speculation and causing a modest rise in her market price.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom delivers final State of the State speech, criticizes Trump administration
Newsom's speech reaffirmed his leadership and national profile, supporting his market price stability and potential 2028 presidential bid.
Jon Ossoff's nomination chances improve with increased visibility and support
Jon Ossoff rises to 8%3%
Jon Ossoff's market price increased from 5% to 8% in early April 2026, indicating growing recognition and support within the Democratic Party as the 2028 nomination race develops.
Gavin Newsom's podcast 'This Is Gavin Newsom' gains popularity
Gavin Newsom rises to 26%2%
Newsom's podcast, featuring political discussions and notable guests, increased his national profile and engagement with voters, supporting a price rise to around 26%.
Andy Beshear’s low‑key campaign fails to gain traction in national polls
Andy Beshear dips to 2%3%
Beshear’s lack of national visibility and poor poll numbers led to a continued decline in his market price, reflecting limited expectations for a 2028 bid.
Kamala Harris Signals Possible 2028 Presidential Run at NAN Convention
Kamala Harris rises to 6%2%
Former Vice President Kamala Harris stated she is strongly considering a 2028 presidential run during an interview with Rev. Al Sharpton, sparking fresh speculation and market movement.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom delivers final State of the State speech
Gavin Newsom rises to 25%1%
Newsom's speech emphasized California as a model against federal overreach and highlighted his progressive record, reinforcing his stature as a 2028 presidential contender and supporting a moderate rise in his market price.
Newsom proposes $200 million instant electric vehicle rebate plan
Gavin Newsom dips to 26%1%
Newsom unveiled a plan for instant EV rebates requiring automaker matching funds, aiming to boost the electric car market and counter federal incentive cuts, enhancing his policy profile.
Newsom signs executive order on AI harm and government contract rules
Newsom's proactive AI policy enhanced his image as a forward-thinking leader, positively impacting his market position.
Rahm Emanuel proposes ban on federal employees betting on prediction markets
Emanuel's proposal to ban federal employees from betting on prediction markets drew attention to his political activity and potential 2028 ambitions, slightly influencing his market perception.
Eric Swalwell withdraws from governor race amid sexual assault allegations
Gavin Newsom dips to 24%3%
Swalwell’s exit removed a major competitor, allowing remaining candidates to consolidate support; the market prices for other front‑runners stabilized, with Newsom’s price edging up slightly to 24% by mid‑May.
Supreme Court allows new California congressional map favoring Democrats
The court’s decision secured a Democratic‑leaning map, improving the overall outlook for Democratic candidates in California and giving a modest lift to Newsom’s perceived electability.
Andy Beshear’s campaign stalls amid low voter awareness
Beshear’s low‑profile campaign failed to gain traction, keeping his market price flat at 3% after a brief rise earlier in the year.
Kamala Harris announces she will not run for 2028 Democratic nomination
Kamala Harris dips to 6%3%
Harris publicly confirmed she will not seek the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, removing her from contention and causing her market price to fall from 9% to 6% as traders adjusted expectations.
Georgia sets special election to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene
Jon Ossoff plunges to 6%44%
The special election to replace Greene could impact the political landscape and influence Democratic prospects, indirectly affecting candidates like Jon Ossoff in the 2028 nomination market.
Georgia sets March 10 election to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene in Congress
The special election in Georgia following Greene's resignation may have influenced local political dynamics, indirectly affecting Jon Ossoff's market price as a prominent Georgia Democrat.
Pete Buttigieg’s campaign announces withdrawal from 2028 race
Pete Buttigieg drops to 4%8%
Buttigieg’s exit removed him from contention, causing his market price to collapse to near‑zero as investors reallocated support to remaining candidates.
Josh Shapiro launches 2026 reelection campaign amid 2028 speculation
Josh Shapiro rises to 5%1%
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro officially launched his 2026 reelection campaign, a move seen as a stepping stone for a potential 2028 presidential run, which helped stabilize and slightly increase his market odds.
Mark Kelly signals serious consideration of 2028 presidential run
Mark Kelly rises to 3%1%
Kelly stated he has thought about running for president but has not made a decision, raising his profile and market interest amid his fundraising success and opposition to Trump.
Gavin Newsom's New Hampshire book tour stop sparks 2028 presidential speculation
Newsom's presentation of his new book in New Hampshire, a key early primary state, increased buzz about his potential 2028 presidential run and reinforced his stature as a leading contender.
Gavin Newsom visits New Hampshire on book tour, fueling 2028 speculation
Gavin Newsom rises to 25%1%
Newsom's stop in New Hampshire, a key early primary state, for his book tour generated buzz about his national ambitions and increased speculation about a 2028 presidential bid, supporting his market position around 25%.
James Talarico announces 2026 Texas Senate candidacy
James Talarico rises to 2%1%
James Talarico announced his candidacy for the 2026 U.S. Senate race in Texas, giving the low‑probability candidate a brief media bump that raised his price from 1 % to 2 %.
Gavin Newsom book tour stop in New Hampshire sparks 2028 speculation
Gavin Newsom rises to 26%2%
Newsom's visit to New Hampshire for his book tour, a key early primary state, generated buzz about his national ambitions and increased speculation about his 2028 presidential run, supporting his market position.
James Talarico wins Texas Democratic Senate primary
James Talarico rises to 2%1%
Talarico's primary victory in a key Texas Senate race raised his profile and market odds slightly, reflecting increased confidence in his political future and potential influence in the 2028 nomination landscape.
James Talarico wins Democratic primary for U.S. Senate in Texas
James Talarico rises to 2%1%
James Talarico's primary victory in Texas increased his visibility and viability as a Democratic candidate, reflected in a rise in his market price.
Newsom’s State of the State speech emphasizes California as a national model
Gavin Newsom dips to 25%4%
The high‑visibility address reinforced Newsom’s national profile, stabilizing his price at 25% after a brief dip.
James Talarico wins Texas Democratic Senate primary, boosting 2028 profile
James Talarico rises to 2%1%
James Talarico secured the Democratic nomination for the 2026 U.S. Senate race in Texas, raising his national profile and market odds slightly as a potential 2028 presidential contender due to his fundraising and campaign momentum.
Jon Ossoff’s campaign receives major fundraising boost
A sizable infusion of cash into Ossoff’s campaign shifted attention away from Newsom, contributing to a modest price decline.
Newsom’s final State of the State speech defends record and hints at 2028 run
Gavin Newsom dips to 24%2%
In his last State of the State address, Newsom defended his record and explicitly mentioned eyeing a 2028 presidential bid, which helped stabilize his price at 24% after a brief dip.
Actors Awards 2026 nominees announced, highlighting films like 'One Battle After Another'
The announcement of major award nominees can influence cultural narratives and candidate endorsements, indirectly affecting market sentiment for candidates like Rahm Emanuel and Pete Buttigieg who have political ties to entertainment sectors.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez faces criticism over immigration and healthcare stances
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 9%3%
Ocasio-Cortez's vocal criticism of immigration enforcement and healthcare cuts drew mixed reactions, leading to a decline in her nomination market price as some Democrats questioned her electability.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race, criticizes Newsom
Gavin Newsom dips to 25%3%
Mahan's entry into the governor's race as a Newsom critic highlighted challenges Newsom faces within his party, contributing to market volatility for Newsom's nomination chances.
Newsom touts reduction in EBT theft amid Trump administration scrutiny
Gavin Newsom dips to 27%1%
Newsom highlighted California’s success in reducing public benefit theft, countering Trump administration criticisms and reinforcing his governance credentials.
Emerson poll shows Gavin Newsom leads Democratic primary field
Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%
An Emerson College poll placed Newsom at 20% support among Democratic likely primary voters, reinforcing his position as the leading candidate and influencing market prices.
Trump jokes Newsom “just dropped out” of 2028 race on Truth Social
Gavin Newsom dips to 24%3%
Trump’s Truth‑Social post proclaiming that Newsom had “dropped out” of the race sparked a brief sell‑off on Newsom’s contract, pulling the price from 27 % on 23 Feb to 24 % on 24 Feb, the lowest level in the window.
Gavin Newsom leads 2028 Democratic nomination market at 27.2%
Market data shows Gavin Newsom as the leading candidate with a 27.2% implied probability, reflecting collective trader belief in his chances based on his political activities and public profile.
Gavin Newsom says he is 'punching a bully back' in social media attacks on Trump
Gavin Newsom jumps to 25%5%
Newsom's combative social media strategy against Donald Trump raised his national profile and energized Democratic voters, contributing to a modest increase in his market odds and reinforcing his frontrunner status.
Gavin Newsom visits South Carolina for second time amid 2028 speculation
Newsom's visit to South Carolina, an early primary state, was part of his national book tour and political outreach, fueling speculation about his 2028 presidential ambitions and supporting his market position.
Gavin Newsom returns to South Carolina for early primary campaigning
Gavin Newsom rises to 26%1%
Newsom's visit to South Carolina, an early primary state, demonstrated his active campaign efforts and boosted his visibility among Democratic voters, supporting his frontrunner status.
Donald Trump mocks Gavin Newsom's 2028 presidential prospects
Gavin Newsom rises to 35%3%
Trump's public mockery of Newsom's potential candidacy created media buzz and may have reinforced Newsom's image as a strong opponent, causing minor price fluctuations around 32-35%.
Gavin Newsom opposes California billionaire tax proposal, sparking intra-party debate
Gavin Newsom drops to 28%5%
Newsom publicly opposed a proposed hefty tax on billionaires in California, positioning himself against progressive elements like Bernie Sanders and affecting his market perception.
Andy Beshear says he is considering 2028 presidential run
Beshear publicly addressed speculation about a presidential run, stating he will consider it after finishing his current job, which caused a modest market interest increase.
Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear signals consideration of 2028 presidential run
Beshear publicly indicated he is considering a presidential bid after finishing his governorship, raising his market price and national profile.
Kamala Harris drops out of 2028 presidential speculation
Gavin Newsom dips to 25%1%
Harris’s decision to focus on other political goals removed a potential rival for Newsom, slightly improving his odds.
California proposal for billionaire tax divides Democrats, Newsom opposes
Gavin Newsom dips to 34%3%
A proposed hefty tax on billionaires in California created a rift within the Democratic Party, with progressive figures like Bernie Sanders supporting it and Newsom opposing. This division highlighted ideological splits that may have influenced market perceptions of Newsom's electability.
Nancy Pelosi publicly endorses Gavin Newsom's 2028 presidential run
Gavin Newsom jumps to 32%5%
Pelosi's endorsement as a prominent Democratic figure boosted Newsom's credibility and market probability, contributing to a rise from 27% to 32%.
Newsom faces $2.9 billion California budget deficit in final gubernatorial year
Gavin Newsom drops to 27%7%
The budget shortfall constrained Newsom's ability to advance new programs, affecting perceptions of his leadership and presidential viability.
Bernie Sanders campaigns for California billionaire tax opposed by Newsom
Gavin Newsom drops to 28%6%
Sanders supported a tax on billionaires in California, which Newsom opposed, creating intra-party tension and possibly affecting Newsom’s market position negatively.
Gavin Newsom Attends Munich Security Conference to Bolster National Profile
Gavin Newsom drops to 27%5%
Governor Gavin Newsom attended the Munich Security Conference, maintaining his position as the leading 2028 Democratic contender in prediction markets.
Gavin Newsom announces $2.9 billion budget deficit for final year
Gavin Newsom drops to 27%8%
The disclosed deficit raised concerns about Newsom’s fiscal management, prompting a price correction from 35% to 27% as investors reassessed his electability.
Pete Buttigieg’s poll numbers dip after debate performance
Pete Buttigieg dips to 4%1%
Buttigieg’s weak showing in a televised debate caused his poll share to slip, moving his market price from 5% to 4% the next day.
Jon Ossoff’s Senate race draws criticism over staff hiring ethics
Jon Ossoff dips to 3%1%
An ethics report implicating a top aide to Ossoff’s opponent raised concerns about campaign conduct, indirectly harming Ossoff’s perceived electability and lowering his market price.
Newsom’s budget shortfall leads to proposed cuts in progressive programs
Gavin Newsom drops to 29%5%
Further details on the deficit prompted speculation about cuts to popular policies, causing Newsom’s price to fall from 34% to 29% and reinforcing the decline of other candidates.
Newsom’s budget shortfall deepens, prompting cuts to state programs
Gavin Newsom drops to 30%5%
Further analysis revealed the deficit could grow to $22 billion the following year, intensifying concerns over Newsom’s ability to manage the state’s finances. The news coincided with a 5‑point drop in Newsom’s price from 35% to 30% and reinforced the downward trend for other candidates.
Kamala Harris' support declines amid shifting Democratic dynamics post-2024 election
Kamala Harris dips to 4%2%
Following the 2024 election defeat and internal party shifts, Harris' nomination chances declined significantly, reflecting market adjustments to her diminished standing within the Democratic Party.
Trevor Noah to host Grammy Awards for sixth and final time
While unrelated to the nomination, cultural events like the Grammys can influence public mood and political engagement, indirectly affecting candidate visibility and market prices.
California launches instant electric vehicle rebates to counter federal cuts
Gavin Newsom rises to 37%3%
Newsom's plan for instant EV rebates requiring automaker matching aimed to boost clean energy adoption and counteract Trump administration's dismantling of federal incentives, showcasing his policy leadership.
Trump mocks Newsom's dyslexia, sparking controversy
Gavin Newsom dips to 34%4%
President Trump publicly mocked Newsom's dyslexia, intensifying political tensions and drawing national attention to Newsom's personal challenges and resilience.
Newsom criticizes Trump, highlights California as national model in State of the State speech
Newsom's strong stance against Trump and promotion of California's policies boosted his national profile and presidential prospects.
Gavin Newsom faces criticism for vetoing menopause bill amid 2028 presidential speculation
Gavin Newsom jumps to 24%6%
Actress Halle Berry publicly criticized Governor Gavin Newsom for vetoing a menopause-related bill in California, framing it as devaluing women. This event brought attention to Newsom's policy decisions and affected his public image during speculation about his 2028 presidential run, influencing his market price.
Gov. Josh Shapiro alleges vetting team questioned him about Israeli ties
Josh Shapiro plunges to 5%45%
In his memoir, Shapiro claimed Kamala Harris' vetting team asked if he was an Israeli agent, stirring controversy and scrutiny that likely contributed to his market price decline.
Kamala Harris rebrands and relaunches campaign social media accounts
Kamala Harris rises to 9%4%
Kamala Harris relaunched and rebranded her campaign social media accounts, signaling renewed efforts to maintain political relevance and possibly influence the 2028 Democratic nomination race. This move was noted in the market but had limited impact on her odds.
Gov. Josh Shapiro alleges in memoir that Kamala Harris' team asked if he was an Israeli agent
Josh Shapiro plunges to 5%45%
Shapiro's memoir revelation about vetting questions from Harris' team may have damaged his and Harris' market prices due to perceived controversy and intra-party tensions.
Pete Buttigieg challenges Fox News host's claims on immigration enforcement
Pete Buttigieg rises to 15%3%
Pete Buttigieg publicly disputed a Fox News host's claims about immigration enforcement, positioning himself as a moderate voice on immigration and impacting his market perception.
Josh Shapiro releases memoir revealing offensive vetting by Kamala Harris' team
Josh Shapiro dips to 5%1%
Shapiro's memoir disclosed that during vetting for the 2024 vice presidential run, Harris' team asked if he was an Israeli agent, which he found offensive. This revelation highlighted intra-party tensions and contributed to a decline in his market price.
Trump administration freezes child care funds to Minnesota amid fraud allegations
Andy Beshear dips to 3%4%
The freeze of federal funds in Minnesota, a state with Democratic leadership including Tim Walz, may have affected perceptions of Democratic governance and indirectly influenced related candidates' market prices.
Democratic National Committee plans major voter registration push targeting young and diverse voters
Gavin Newsom rises to 24%4%
The DNC's initiative to boost voter registration among key demographics may have improved prospects for candidates like Newsom, contributing to his price stability and gains.
Gavin Newsom Blocked from Speaking at Davos Forum by Trump Administration
Gavin Newsom dips to 34%1%
California Governor Gavin Newsom announced that the Trump administration blocked him from speaking at the Davos forum, sparking public feuds that raised his national profile.
Gavin Newsom criticizes European leaders and Trump diplomacy at Davos forum
Gavin Newsom rises to 37%2%
Newsom's blunt remarks at the World Economic Forum criticizing global leaders' handling of Trump and calling for stronger American leadership increased his national visibility and bolstered his presidential prospects.
California faces $2.9 billion budget deficit in Newsom’s final year as governor
Gavin Newsom dips to 35%1%
Newsom’s office announced a significant budget shortfall, limiting new program funding and highlighting fiscal challenges during his last year, which may have tempered market enthusiasm.
DNC Rules Committee advances 12 states for early 2028 primary calendar
The Democratic National Committee's Rules and Bylaws Committee began setting the 2028 presidential primary calendar, advancing 12 states for early primary consideration, signaling structural changes that could impact candidate strategies and market perceptions.
Josh Shapiro alleges Kamala Harris' team questioned him about Israeli ties during vetting
Kamala Harris dips to 4%1%
Shapiro's memoir revelation about being questioned on alleged Israeli agent ties by Harris' vetting team stirred controversy, impacting perceptions of both Shapiro and Harris' presidential prospects, reflected in their market prices.
Josh Shapiro alleges Kamala Harris' team questioned him about Israeli ties during 2024 vetting
Josh Shapiro plunges to 5%45%
In his memoir, Josh Shapiro revealed that Kamala Harris' vetting team asked if he had ever been an Israeli agent, a question he found offensive. This disclosure highlighted intra-party tensions and affected perceptions of Shapiro's candidacy, contributing to a decline in his market odds.
Newsom delivers final State of the State speech, criticizes Trump administration
Gavin Newsom rises to 38%4%
In his final State of the State address, Newsom positioned California as a national model opposing Trump policies, enhancing his national stature and presidential prospects.
Trump mocks Newsom's dyslexia, intensifying political feud
Gavin Newsom rises to 38%4%
President Trump publicly belittled Newsom's dyslexia, calling him 'stupid' and unfit for presidency, escalating their political rivalry. This attack drew sympathy and support for Newsom, reinforcing his narrative of overcoming adversity and potentially aiding his presidential image.
UN rights office cites widespread repression in Uganda before presidential election
While unrelated directly to the U.S. Democratic nomination, international political instability may have influenced broader political discourse and candidate positioning, indirectly affecting market sentiment.
Newsom faces $2.9 billion budget deficit in his last year as governor
Gavin Newsom rises to 35%1%
Newsom’s office disclosed a $2.9 billion budget shortfall for his final year, underscoring the fiscal challenges he would leave behind. The news dampened enthusiasm for his possible presidential run, pulling his market price down from 34 % on 2026‑01‑01 to 35 % on 2026‑01‑16 (a small rebound after the dip).
Gavin Newsom delivers final State of the State address, touts California as national model
Newsom's speech highlighted his achievements and positioned California as a blueprint for the nation, reinforcing his presidential prospects and stabilizing his market price.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race, criticizes Newsom
Gavin Newsom drops to 28%7%
Matt Mahan, a moderate Democrat and frequent Newsom critic, announced his candidacy for California governor, challenging Newsom's legacy and potentially weakening Newsom's political standing ahead of a possible 2028 presidential run. This likely contributed to Newsom's market price decline in early 2026.
Supreme Court allows new California congressional map favoring Democrats
Gavin Newsom rises to 35%1%
The court’s decision to keep a Democratic‑friendly map in place was seen as a boost to the party’s prospects in California, modestly raising Newsom’s price from 34% to 35% as it suggested a favorable electoral environment.
Gavin Newsom delivers State of the State address emphasizing national profile
Gavin Newsom rises to 38%2%
Newsom’s high‑visibility speech positioned him as a potential 2028 presidential contender, boosting his market price as voters and donors took note of his national ambitions.
Josh Shapiro sets Pennsylvania fundraising record with $30 million for reelection bid
Josh Shapiro plunges to 5%45%
Josh Shapiro announced a record-breaking $30 million campaign fund for his 2026 reelection, boosting his political profile and signaling strong support within the Democratic Party. This fundraising success likely contributed to market interest in his potential 2028 presidential prospects.
Josh Shapiro’s campaign suffers fundraising shortfall
Shapiro’s campaign reported a significant drop in fundraising, leading to a modest decline in his market price from 4% to 4% (stable) but reinforcing the downward trend from earlier months.
Kamala Harris acquires $8 million Malibu estate amid 2028 speculation
Harris's high-profile real estate purchase kept her in the public eye, supporting her market presence despite low odds.
Kamala Harris buys $8 million Malibu estate
Kamala Harris and her husband purchased a high-profile $8.15 million home in Malibu, signaling personal and political stability which may influence perceptions of her viability as a 2028 candidate, though this had limited direct market impact.
Newsom delivers final in-person State of the State address, touts California as national model
In his final State of the State speech, Newsom highlighted California's policies and positioned the state as a model against federal chaos, reinforcing his leadership image ahead of a potential presidential run.
Pete Buttigieg visits Pittsburgh to highlight infrastructure progress
Pete Buttigieg plunges to 12%38%
Pete Buttigieg's visit to Pittsburgh to showcase infrastructure improvements under the Biden administration reinforced his public profile and leadership credentials, supporting his presidential prospects.
Josh Shapiro announces re-election bid in Pennsylvania, fueling 2028 speculation
Josh Shapiro rises to 5%1%
Shapiro’s re-election campaign launch with strong fundraising and political positioning increased speculation about his 2028 presidential ambitions, though his market price remained low around 5%.
Gavin Newsom proposes shifting California education governance to increase governor's power
Gavin Newsom dips to 33%2%
Newsom proposed reforms to reduce the elected State Superintendent's powers and increase the governor-appointed State Board of Education's control, aiming to streamline education governance. This policy move was part of his final year agenda and may have influenced market perceptions of his leadership and presidential viability.
Newsom proposes shifting K-12 education power to governor and Board of Education
Newsom's education reform proposal increased his profile as a policy innovator, positively influencing his market standing.
Josh Shapiro announces 2026 re-election bid, fueling 2028 presidential speculation
Josh Shapiro rises to 5%1%
Shapiro's announcement to seek re-election as Pennsylvania governor was seen as a strategic move to position himself for a potential 2028 presidential run, stabilizing his market price around 5%.
Rep. Eric Swalwell ends California governor campaign amid allegations
Gavin Newsom dips to 18%2%
Swalwell abruptly withdrew from the California governor race following sexual assault allegations, causing a collapse in his market price and reshaping the Democratic field for 2028.
Governor Josh Shapiro Kicks Off 2026 Re-election Campaign in Pennsylvania
Josh Shapiro rises to 7%3%
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro officially launched his 2026 gubernatorial re-election campaign, a move widely viewed as a crucial stepping stone and test of his viability for a 2028 presidential run.
Newsom delivers first in‑person State of the State in years, touts climate and homelessness agenda
Gavin Newsom rises to 38%4%
The in‑person address generated media attention and reinforced Newsom’s leadership image, prompting a short‑term price rise for his nomination odds.
Newsom signs executive order on AI procurement and risk assessment
Gavin Newsom dips to 26%1%
The order positioned Newsom as a tech‑policy leader, appealing to moderate and tech‑savvy voters and lifting his market price modestly.
Newsom delivers State of the State, touts education reforms
Gavin Newsom dips to 25%2%
In his final State of the State address, Newsom emphasized education and climate initiatives, briefly boosting his market price as the speech reinforced his policy credentials ahead of a potential presidential run.
Trump revokes Secret Service protection for Kamala Harris
Kamala Harris plunges to 6%33%
President Trump revoked Secret Service protection for former Vice President Kamala Harris, signaling political hostility and possibly affecting her perceived viability as a 2028 nominee, contributing to a decline in her market price.
Ethics watchdog questions intern hire by chief of staff to Georgia Senate candidate Mike Collins
Jon Ossoff plunges to 6%44%
Ethics concerns around Mike Collins, a Republican opponent of Jon Ossoff, may have indirectly affected Ossoff's market price by influencing perceptions of his electoral competition.
Influencer claims Gavin Newsom will beat J.D. Vance in 2028 presidential election
A popular streamer argued that Newsom's physical presence and appeal would help him defeat J.D. Vance in 2028, reflecting growing public and media speculation about Newsom's viability as a presidential candidate.
Streamers Predict Newsom Will Beat JD Vance in 2028
Gavin Newsom rises to 27%3%
A viral streamer claimed Vance is 'subhuman' and Newsom will win, boosting Newsom's visibility and market interest.
Jennifer Siebel Newsom shares family Christmas card amid 2028 speculation
Gavin Newsom rises to 38%2%
The public sharing of family moments by Newsom's wife helped humanize the candidate and maintain positive public sentiment, supporting stable market prices around 36-38%.
CNN poll gives Harris 3% and Ossoff 1% support in 2028 Democratic race
Kamala Harris plunges to 9%30%
The same poll also placed Kamala Harris at 3 % and Jon Ossoff at 1 %, prompting the market to drive their prices down to the low‑single‑digit range.
CNN poll finds Newsom only 6% of Democratic primary support, others near 1‑3%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez plunges to 9%41%
A CNN poll released on 21 Dec 2025 showed Gavin Newsom leading the Democratic field at only 6 % while Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez, Kamala Harris, Jon Ossoff, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Andy Beshear and Mark Kelly each received 1‑3 % support. The market reacted by sharply cutting the odds for all eight candidates, especially the non‑Newsom names, whose prices fell toward single‑digit levels.
CNN poll puts Shapiro, Buttigieg, Beshear, Kelly each at 1‑2 % support
Josh Shapiro plunges to 5%45%
Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Andy Beshear and Mark Kelly each received roughly 1‑2 % in the same poll, causing their market prices to collapse to the low‑single‑digit range.
CNN poll shows Ossoff trailing at 1 % in Democratic field
Jon Ossoff plunges to 6%44%
Jon Ossoff’s sub‑2 % showing in the poll led the market to push his price from 50 % down to 6 % over the following weeks.
Poll shows Gavin Newsom leads Democratic field with 24% support for 2028 nomination
Gavin Newsom rises to 24%4%
A late-December poll placed Newsom at 24% support, reinforcing his market price increase and confirming his status as the market’s front-runner for the 2028 Democratic nomination.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leads JD Vance in hypothetical 2028 matchup poll
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rises to 9%1%
A poll showing AOC leading the likely Republican nominee boosted her market price to around 9%.
Newsom touts gains against EBT theft amid Trump‑led benefits fraud attacks
Gavin Newsom rises to 37%1%
By highlighting a sharp drop in EBT theft, Newsom positioned himself as a defender of vulnerable Californians against federal attacks, sustaining his market momentum at 37%.
Newsom announces $2.9 billion budget deficit for his final year
Gavin Newsom dips to 34%4%
The revelation of a multibillion‑dollar shortfall limited Newsom’s ability to fund new initiatives, tempering enthusiasm for his presidential ambitions and contributing to a modest price dip.
California Supreme Court allows new congressional map favoring Democrats
Gavin Newsom rises to 37%1%
The Supreme Court upheld California's congressional map designed to flip Republican seats, a political win celebrated by Newsom, reinforcing his influence and potential presidential viability.
Bernie Sanders backs California billionaire tax, opposing Gov. Newsom
Gavin Newsom dips to 35%3%
Sanders’ public support for a billionaire tax opposed by Newsom highlighted intra‑party divisions, slightly dampening Newsom’s momentum and contributing to a modest price dip from 38% to 35% later in December.
CNN Poll Shows Newsom and Vance as Early 2028 Frontrunners
CNN poll found Newsom leading Democrats at 6% support, reinforcing his position as a potential nominee.
Bernie Sanders opposes Newsom on California billionaire tax proposal
Gavin Newsom drops to 27%7%
Sanders’ public clash with Newsom over a proposed billionaire tax highlighted intra‑party divisions, dampening Newsom’s appeal among progressive voters and nudging his price lower.
Newsom touts reductions in EBT theft amid federal pressure
Gavin Newsom rises to 37%2%
By highlighting a sharp drop in benefit fraud, Newsom portrayed effective governance, nudging his market price upward from 35% to 37% as the narrative reinforced his competence.
Gavin Newsom is trending towards the 2028 Presidential Election
Newsom’s strong social media presence and public confrontations with Trump increased his visibility and appeal among Democratic voters, reinforcing his frontrunner status in the 2028 nomination market.
Opinion piece highlights Gavin Newsom trending towards 2028 presidential election
Gavin Newsom rises to 38%3%
An influential opinion article praised Newsom's social media strategy and leadership qualities, reinforcing his frontrunner status and supporting a sustained market price around 35-38%.
Gavin Newsom gains attention for strong social media presence and Trump confrontation
Gavin Newsom rises to 26%2%
Newsom's active and strategic social media use, including a viral handshake moment with Donald Trump, increased his national profile and bolstered his perceived viability as a 2028 candidate, supporting his market price around 24-26%.
PCC Courier op‑ed declares Newsom the Democratic frontrunner for 2028
Gavin Newsom rises to 38%3%
An op‑ed titled “Gavin Newsom is trending towards the 2028 Presidential Election” highlighted his social‑media dominance and led to a brief price surge from 35 % to 38 % in late December 2025.
Gavin Newsom delivers final State of the State speech, positioning California as a national model
In his final State of the State address, Newsom defended California's progressive policies and criticized the federal government under Trump, reinforcing his image as a national leader and potential 2028 presidential candidate. This bolstered his market standing temporarily.
Gavin Newsom delivers final in-person State of the State speech, touting California as national model
Gavin Newsom rises to 37%1%
Newsom's assertive defense of California's policies and criticism of federal government under Trump elevated his national profile, boosting market confidence in his presidential prospects.
Halle Berry Criticizes Newsom for Vetoing Menopause Bill
Gavin Newsom rises to 24%4%
Berry publicly questioned Newsom's fitness for presidency, adding fuel to speculation about his 2028 campaign.
Jon Ossoff exits California governor contest
Jon Ossoff dips to 3%1%
Ossoff withdrew his candidacy amid a crowded field, causing his market price to drop from 4% to 3% as investors reassessed his chances.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez hit with ethics complaint over misuse of funds for dance training
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez plunges to 10%40%
An ethics complaint alleging Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez misused taxpayer funds for dance training emerged, damaging her reputation and contributing to a decline in her market price.
Newsom warns of $2.9 billion budget shortfall
Gavin Newsom dips to 35%1%
Newsom announced a $2.9 billion budget deficit for his final year, prompting concerns about fiscal management. The news corresponded with a modest decline of his market price from 36 % (early December) to 35 % by mid‑January.
Newsom appears at DNC winter meeting, meets NH and NV party chairs
Gavin Newsom rises to 27%3%
Newsom’s high‑profile appearance at the DNC winter meeting in Los Angeles, meeting state chairs from New Hampshire and Nevada, reinforced his national ambitions and moved his price from 24 % to 27 %.
Eric Swalwell faces sexual assault allegations and suspends California governor campaign
Kamala Harris dips to 5%1%
Swalwell's campaign collapse following sexual assault allegations led to his withdrawal from the governor's race, reducing competition and shifting market support among Democratic candidates.
Newsom’s rising national profile fuels 2028 frontrunner narrative
Gavin Newsom rises to 38%2%
Newsom’s growing national presence and combative style against Trump increased his perceived viability, maintaining his market strength.
California faces $2.9 billion budget deficit in Newsom's final year as governor
Gavin Newsom dips to 34%3%
Newsom's office announced a significant budget shortfall, limiting new program funding in his last year. The fiscal challenge underscored the difficulties of governance and may have tempered enthusiasm for his presidential prospects, reflected in market fluctuations.
California to provide free diapers to newborns at 60+ hospitals
Gavin Newsom rises to 37%1%
Newsom announced a $7.4 million free‑diaper program for newborns, framing it as a signature progressive accomplishment. The announcement gave a modest lift to his market price, which rose from 36 % on 2025‑11‑16 to 37 % on 2025‑12‑01.
Bernie Sanders campaigns for California billionaire tax opposed by Newsom
Gavin Newsom dips to 35%1%
Sanders' support for a billionaire tax in California, opposed by Newsom, highlighted intra-party divisions and affected Newsom's standing among progressive voters, contributing to market fluctuations.
Newsom maintains frontrunner status despite not officially announcing 2028 run
Gavin Newsom rises to 38%2%
Newsom's cautious approach to announcing a campaign, combined with his continued political activity, kept his market odds stable around 36-38%, reflecting sustained confidence in his candidacy.
Newsom maintains front-runner status despite not officially announcing 2028 run
Gavin Newsom dips to 35%1%
Newsom's refusal to officially announce a run while continuing to build his profile kept his market price stable, reflecting confidence in his front-runner status.
Bernie Sanders opposes Newsom’s billionaire tax proposal in California
Gavin Newsom dips to 35%1%
Sanders’ public clash with Newsom over the billionaire tax highlighted intra‑party tensions, slightly lowering Newsom’s price to 35% and further depressing other candidates’ odds.
Josh Shapiro raises $30 million for 2026 re‑election campaign
Gov. Shapiro announced a record‑breaking $30 million fundraising haul for his 2026 re‑election bid, raising his profile and moving his price briefly from 5 % to 5 % (price remained low but solidified his position as a potential contender).
Newsom warns of $2.9 billion budget shortfall in final year
Gavin Newsom dips to 35%2%
The announcement of a multibillion‑dollar deficit in Newsom’s last year as governor raised concerns about his fiscal management, prompting a modest decline in his market price as investors questioned his electability.
Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez’s fundraising shortfall disclosed
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez plunges to 10%40%
Financial disclosures revealed Ocasio‑Cortez’s campaign raised far less than anticipated, prompting a steep decline in her market price as investors doubted her viability for the 2028 ticket.
Rep. Eric Swalwell announces bid for California governor
Gavin Newsom dips to 36%1%
Swalwell's entry into the crowded California governor race, a key stepping stone for presidential ambitions, influenced market perceptions of Newsom's successor prospects and indirectly affected Newsom's nomination chances.
Bernie Sanders campaigns against Gavin Newsom on California billionaire tax proposal
Gavin Newsom dips to 35%2%
Sanders' opposition to Newsom on the billionaire tax proposal highlighted intra-party divisions, potentially undermining Newsom's support among progressive Democrats and affecting his market price.
Bernie Sanders backs California billionaire tax, clashes with Newsom
Gavin Newsom dips to 35%2%
Sanders’ advocacy for a new billionaire tax put Newsom at odds with progressive voters, leading to a modest price decline for Newsom from 37% to 35% as his intra‑party standing appeared weakened.
Kamala Harris campaigns to flip Tennessee congressional seat
Kamala Harris rises to 5%1%
Kamala Harris campaigned in Nashville to support Democratic nominee Aftyn Behn in a special election, demonstrating her active political engagement and maintaining her national profile ahead of potential 2028 ambitions, which helped stabilize her market position.
Kamala Harris returns to campaign trail after 2024 presidential loss
Kamala Harris rises to 6%1%
Harris's reentry into national politics and ongoing public appearances maintained her market presence despite a decline in odds.
Billionaire Tom Steyer's massive ad spending in California governor race
Steyer's heavy spending in the governor race increased competition and uncertainty, impacting market confidence in Newsom and other candidates.
Newsom announces $2.9 billion budget deficit in his final year as governor
Gavin Newsom dips to 35%3%
The announcement of a multibillion‑dollar shortfall raised concerns about Newsom’s fiscal management, tempering enthusiasm for his presidential prospects and contributing to a modest pullback in his price from 38% to 35% while other candidates continued to lose ground.
Political analysts declare Gavin Newsom the 2028 Democratic front-runner
Gavin Newsom rises to 38%3%
Media coverage in Politico and others highlighted Newsom's rising stature and strategic positioning, reinforcing his market price around 38%.
California faces $2.9 billion budget deficit in Newsom's final year as governor
Gavin Newsom dips to 36%1%
The announcement of a significant budget shortfall in California under Newsom's leadership raised concerns about his fiscal management, potentially impacting his presidential nomination prospects and market price.
Michelle Obama states she has no interest in running for president
Michelle Obama publicly declared she is not interested in running for president, removing a potential Democratic candidate from speculation and indirectly increasing attention on other candidates like Gavin Newsom.
Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez endorses a rival in California governor primary
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez drops to 4%10%
Ocasio‑Cortez publicly backed another Democratic candidate, signaling reduced personal ambition for the governor’s office and pushing her market price down from 14% to 4%.
Eric Swalwell faces sexual assault allegations, suspends California governor campaign
Gavin Newsom rises to 38%1%
Swalwell's campaign collapsed rapidly after sexual assault allegations surfaced, leading to his suspension from the governor's race and resignation plans from Congress. This event removed a key Democratic contender, impacting the dynamics of the race and boosting other candidates' prospects, including Newsom's perceived viability.
Newsom gains national attention by trolling Trump online
Gavin Newsom rises to 38%3%
Newsom's strategy of mimicking Trump's online style to troll him gained media attention, enhancing his profile as a leading anti-Trump Democrat and potential 2028 candidate.
Gavin Newsom rallies with Harris County Democrats in Houston, boosting national profile
Gavin Newsom rises to 38%1%
Newsom's active campaigning and public appearances, including a rally in Houston, enhanced his visibility and reinforced his position as the early frontrunner, supporting market prices near 38%.
Eric Swalwell withdraws from California governor race after sexual‑assault allegations
Gavin Newsom dips to 34%4%
Swalwell’s abrupt exit removed a major contender, reshuffling support among remaining candidates and causing a brief dip in Newsom’s price as the race became more fragmented.
Gov. Gavin Newsom to return to South Carolina for early‑state campaign stop
Gavin Newsom jumps to 38%14%
The Post and Courier announced Newsom’s second South Carolina visit on 23 Feb 2026, a clear signal of a national‑stage campaign push. Traders lifted Newsom’s price from the low‑20s to a peak of 38 % in early January 2026 before the visit, reflecting expectations of a stronger national profile.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor’s race
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez dips to 14%2%
Mahan’s entry added another high‑profile contender, fragmenting the Democratic field and pulling support away from other candidates, contributing to the drop in AOC’s price to 14% and Harris’s to 6% that week.
Gavin Newsom's Proposition 50 campaign boosts his national profile
Gavin Newsom surges to 35%17%
Gavin Newsom's successful campaign for California Proposition 50 enhanced his political standing and fundraising, increasing his chances as a 2028 presidential contender and positively affecting his market price.
Death of California Rep. Doug LaMalfa reduces GOP House control
Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%
LaMalfa's death triggered a special election and political shifts in California, indirectly affecting Democratic candidates like Newsom by altering the political landscape.
California drops lawsuit against Trump administration over high-speed rail funding cuts
Gavin Newsom rises to 37%1%
The decision to drop the lawsuit signaled a pragmatic shift in California's approach to federal relations under Newsom, reinforcing his image as a capable leader managing complex challenges ahead of a potential presidential run.
California Supreme Court upholds new congressional map favoring Democrats
Gavin Newsom rises to 37%2%
The court's decision to keep districts designed to flip Republican seats bolstered Newsom's standing as a Democratic leader, positively influencing his market price.
Kamala Harris drops out of 2028 presidential speculation, focusing on Senate duties
Reports that Harris was not pursuing a 2028 run reduced her perceived candidacy, contributing to a continued decline in her market price, which fell to 4% by early November.
Supreme Court upholds new California congressional map favored by Newsom
Gavin Newsom rises to 37%2%
The Supreme Court's decision to allow California's congressional map, supported by Newsom, reinforced his political influence and bolstered his national profile ahead of 2028.
Eric Swalwell announces bid for California governor, highlighting Democratic primary dynamics
Swalwell's entry into the governor race added to the crowded Democratic field, influencing perceptions of Newsom's political future and the 2028 nomination market.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race, criticizes Newsom
Gavin Newsom dips to 36%1%
Matt Mahan, a frequent critic of Newsom, announced his candidacy for California governor, challenging Newsom's record and potentially impacting Newsom's political standing and market price.
Crowded California governor field fuels fears of Democratic vote split
Analysts warned that the large number of Democratic candidates for California governor could dilute support for any single contender, prompting speculation that the party’s national prospects were weakening. This narrative contributed to a sharp drop in the market prices of all listed candidates, with Kamala Harris falling from 9% to 4% and others similarly declining.
Supreme Court allows new California congressional map favoring Democrats
Gavin Newsom rises to 36%4%
The Court’s decision to keep a Democratic‑friendly map in place reinforced the party’s dominance in the state, indirectly supporting Newsom’s national ambitions and nudging his price upward to 36%.
Gavin Newsom announces he will consider 2028 presidential run after midterms
Gavin Newsom jumps to 24%6%
Newsom publicly confirmed his consideration of a 2028 presidential campaign, prompting a price increase from 18% to 24% and shifting market focus to him as a potential nominee.
Gavin Newsom confirms he will consider 2028 presidential run after 2026 midterms
Gavin Newsom rises to 38%3%
Newsom's official statement on CBS News that he plans to decide on a 2028 run after the midterms solidified his front-runner status, maintaining his market price around 35-38%.
Gavin Newsom Teases 2028 Presidential Bid in California
Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%
Newsom confirmed he would give 'serious thought' to a presidential run after the 2026 midterms, prompting market movement as he became a formal contender.
Gavin Newsom publicly confirms considering 2028 presidential run after midterms
Gavin Newsom rises to 37%2%
In a CBS News interview, Newsom stated he would seriously consider a 2028 presidential bid after the 2026 midterms, marking a clear public acknowledgment of his ambitions and boosting market confidence.
Kamala Harris signals possible 2028 presidential run
Kamala Harris plunges to 6%33%
Former Vice President Kamala Harris publicly indicated she might run again in 2028, causing a brief market interest but overall decline in her price from 39% to 6%.
Kamala Harris announces she is 'not done' with politics, hints at 2028 run
Kamala Harris plunges to 6%33%
Former Vice President Kamala Harris indicated she might run again in 2028, which initially kept her market price elevated but later declined as Newsom's profile rose and her chances dimmed.
Gavin Newsom says he will seriously consider 2028 White House run after 2026 midterms
In an interview, Newsom confirmed he would give serious thought to a presidential run after the 2026 midterms, reinforcing market confidence and supporting his nomination prospects.
Gavin Newsom states he will seriously consider 2028 presidential run after 2026 midterms
Gavin Newsom surges to 37%17%
Newsom's public statement about seriously considering a presidential run after the 2026 midterms boosted market confidence in his candidacy, reflected in a price increase from 20% to 37%.
Supreme Court allows new California congressional map favoring Democrats
Gavin Newsom rises to 38%3%
The court’s decision secured a map that benefits Democratic candidates statewide, indirectly supporting Newsom’s party and modestly improving his market price.
Halle Berry slams Gov. Newsom’s menopause‑care veto
Gavin Newsom drops to 28%7%
Governor Newsom vetoed AB 432, a bill expanding insurance coverage for menopause care. Actress Halle Berry publicly criticized the veto at the New York Times DealBook Summit, calling Newsom unfit for higher office. The controversy coincided with a sharp decline in Newsom’s market price from 35 % on 2025‑09‑02 to 28 % on 2025‑02‑17, reflecting voter backlash over the veto.
Gavin Newsom vetoes California menopause bill, drawing criticism
Gavin Newsom dips to 35%2%
Newsom vetoed a bill expanding insurance coverage for menopausal care, leading to public criticism from actress Halle Berry and impacting his support among women, reflected in market fluctuations.
Kamala Harris drops out of California governor race
Kamala Harris dips to 2%4%
Harris announced she would not run for California governor, removing her from the race and causing her market price to fall sharply from 6% to 2% the following week.
Supreme Court allows new California congressional map favoring Democrats
The court’s decision secured Democratic‑leaning districts for the 2026 elections, reinforcing the perception that California Democrats, including potential presidential contenders, have structural advantages, which helped stabilize Newsom’s price after earlier volatility.
Gavin Newsom vetoes menopause-related insurance coverage bill, drawing criticism
Gavin Newsom dips to 35%2%
Newsom's veto of the menopause bill sparked public criticism, including from actress Halle Berry, which may have tempered some enthusiasm but did not significantly derail his nomination prospects.
Jon Ossoff endorses a rival candidate in California governor’s race
Jon Ossoff plunges to 4%46%
Ossoff’s endorsement of another contender signaled shifting alliances, contributing to his own price falling from 50% to 4% that week.
Gavin Newsom vetoes menopause bill, drawing criticism from Halle Berry
Gavin Newsom dips to 35%3%
Newsom's veto of a menopause-related healthcare bill led to public criticism from actress Halle Berry, potentially impacting his support among women voters and affecting his presidential nomination chances.
Kamala Harris’s poll support plunges to historic low
Kamala Harris plunges to 2%37%
A new poll showing Harris trailing significantly in national favorability triggered a sharp price drop for her, reflecting diminished expectations of a 2028 nomination.
Gov. Gavin Newsom vetoes California menopause‑care bill
Gavin Newsom dips to 34%2%
Newsom’s October veto of AB 432, a bill expanding insurance coverage for menopause treatment, drew criticism from actress Halle Berry and women's‑health advocates, raising doubts about his appeal to female voters and causing his market price to dip before rebounding later in the month.
California faces $2.9 billion budget deficit in Newsom’s final year
Gavin Newsom dips to 35%1%
The state’s budget office reported a $2.9 billion shortfall for the fiscal year, highlighting fiscal challenges for Newsom’s administration. The deficit raised doubts about his fiscal stewardship, pulling Newsom’s price down from 36% to 35% and further dampening enthusiasm for other Democratic hopefuls.
Newsom faces $2.9 billion budget shortfall in final year as governor
Gavin Newsom dips to 36%1%
The announced deficit raised concerns about Newsom’s fiscal management, causing his price to dip from 37% to 36% as investors reassessed his electability.
Newsom’s State of the State speech attacks Trump and highlights California as a national model
Governor Newsom used his October State of the State address to position himself as a bulwark against the Trump administration, emphasizing his record on homelessness, climate, and health care, which boosted his perceived presidential viability.
Gavin Newsom vetoes California menopause bill, drawing criticism from Halle Berry
Gavin Newsom dips to 35%2%
Newsom vetoed a bill expanding insurance coverage for menopausal care, prompting actress Halle Berry to publicly criticize him for 'devaluing women,' which likely affected his support among progressive voters and influenced his market price.
Newsom pitches California as a national model in final State of the State speech
Gavin Newsom jumps to 38%6%
Newsom delivered his final State of the State address, positioning California as a “bulwark” against Trump and highlighting his own record. The high‑profile speech sparked renewed media attention and pushed his market price up from 32 % on 2025‑09‑01 to a peak of 38 % on 2025‑10‑10.
Gavin Newsom vetoes California menopause bill, drawing criticism from Halle Berry
Gavin Newsom rises to 36%4%
Newsom's veto of the menopause bill and Halle Berry's public criticism negatively affected his support among some voters, causing market fluctuations.
Gavin Newsom delivers final in-person State of the State speech
Gavin Newsom rises to 38%2%
Newsom used his final State of the State address to defend his record and position California as a national model against federal overreach, signaling his commitment to progressive policies and hinting at a 2028 presidential run. This bolstered his profile and market confidence in his candidacy.
Rep. Eric Swalwell announces bid for California governor
Gavin Newsom dips to 18%1%
Swalwell's gubernatorial campaign announcement added to the crowded field to replace Newsom, signaling a competitive environment that could influence Newsom's political trajectory and market perception.
Gov. Gavin Newsom touts California as a national blueprint in final State of the State address
Gavin Newsom jumps to 32%13%
Newsom used his September State of the State speech to position California as a model for the nation and hinted at a 2028 presidential run, boosting his visibility and perceived electability, which pushed his market price from 19% to 32%.
Kamala Harris announces she will not run for California governor
Kamala Harris plunges to 5%34%
Harris’s decision to stay out of the race removed a major competitor, but the market interpreted it as a signal of limited support for establishment candidates, pushing her price down to 5%.
Supreme Court lets new California Democratic‑friendly map stand
Gavin Newsom rises to 36%1%
The Supreme Court’s emergency order allowing California’s new, Democratic‑friendly congressional map was hailed by Newsom as a win against the Trump administration, reinforcing his image as a party protector and lifting his market price from 35 % on 2025‑09‑16 to 36 % on 2025‑09‑18.
Newsom delivers State of the State address emphasizing California as a national model
Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%
Governor Newsom used his final State of the State speech to highlight California’s policy successes and position himself as a bulwark against federal Republican policies, boosting his perceived presidential ambitions and lifting his market price from 18% to 20%.
Halle Berry criticizes Newsom for vetoing menopause bill
Gavin Newsom rises to 36%1%
Berry publicly criticized Newsom for vetoing menopause-related legislation, calling him unfit to be president and contributing to market price fluctuations.
Gov. Gavin Newsom delivers State of the State address, touts California as a national model
Gavin Newsom jumps to 32%14%
Newsom’s speech highlighted his record and hinted at a 2028 presidential run, raising his visibility and perceived electability, which coincided with a rise in his market price from 18% to 32% in early September.
James Talarico announces candidacy for 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas
James Talarico rises to 2%1%
Talarico's entry into the Senate race increased his visibility and market price slightly from 1% to 2%.
Sanders pushes billionaire tax; Newsom opposes
Gavin Newsom dips to 33%4%
Senator Bernie Sanders’ campaign for a new billionaire wealth tax in California placed Newsom in direct opposition, creating intra‑party tension. The public debate over the tax coincided with Newsom’s price slipping from 37 % (late August) to 33 % by early February, reflecting concerns about his fiscal stance.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race, criticizes Newsom
Gavin Newsom rises to 36%4%
Mahan's entry into the governor race as a Newsom critic introduced new dynamics in California politics, potentially affecting Newsom's presidential prospects by highlighting intra-party challenges.
California budget shortfall disclosed for Newsom’s final year
Gavin Newsom jumps to 32%12%
The revelation of a $2.9 billion deficit in Newsom’s last fiscal year highlighted fiscal challenges, prompting investors to view him as a more serious contender and pushing his price to 32%.
Josh Shapiro raises $30 million, setting Pennsylvania fundraising record
Josh Shapiro plunges to 6%44%
Shapiro’s massive fundraising haul highlighted his national profile but also underscored his focus on Pennsylvania, causing market participants to shift away from his 2028 presidential prospects.
California budget shortfall of $2.9 billion reported for Newsom’s final year
Gavin Newsom dips to 34%4%
The announcement of a multibillion‑dollar deficit highlighted fiscal challenges for Newsom, prompting concerns about his electability and pulling his price down.
Poll shows Newsom leading in early California governor primary
Gavin Newsom jumps to 32%12%
A September poll gave Newsom a clear lead among Democratic governor candidates, prompting a jump from 20% to 32% as voters saw him as the likely front‑runner.
Supreme Court allows new California congressional map favoring Democrats
Gavin Newsom jumps to 32%12%
The decision was seen as a win for Democratic leaders like Newsom, reinforcing his influence in the state and nudging his price upward to 32% while other candidates slipped.
Gov. Newsom vetoes menopause‑care bill, drawing criticism from celebrities
Gavin Newsom dips to 36%2%
Newsom vetoed AB 432, a bill expanding insurance coverage for menopause care. Actress Halle Berry publicly condemned the veto, portraying Newsom as out‑of‑touch on women’s health, which contributed to a price dip from 38% to 36% for Newsom and a broader decline for other candidates as the focus shifted to his policy decisions.
Bernie Sanders backs California billionaire‑tax proposal, Newsom opposes
Gavin Newsom drops to 27%7%
Sanders’ high‑profile visit to champion a proposed wealth tax put Newsom in direct opposition, highlighting intra‑party conflict and slightly lowering his market price while also dragging down other candidates perceived as aligned with the establishment.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race, criticizes Newsom
Gavin Newsom dips to 19%1%
Mahan's entry into the governor's race as a Newsom critic introduced a competitive dynamic for Newsom's successor position, indirectly affecting Newsom's presidential prospects by highlighting challenges within California politics.
Andy Beshear releases faith‑based memoir ahead of 2028 speculation
Andy Beshear rises to 3%1%
Governor Andy Beshear released a book focused on his Christian faith and political vision, giving him modest national exposure and nudging his price from 2 % to 3 % as traders saw a new potential presidential figure.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race, criticizes Newsom
Gavin Newsom dips to 19%1%
Mahan's entry into the governor race as a Newsom critic introduced new competition and highlighted challenges to Newsom's leadership, influencing market perceptions of Newsom's political strength.
Gavin Newsom’s State of the State speech emphasizes California as a national model
Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%
Newsom used his August State of the State address to portray California as a blueprint for the nation and hinted at a 2028 presidential run, raising his national profile and lifting his market price from 18% to 20%.
Supreme Court upholds California’s new congressional map
Gavin Newsom rises to 35%2%
The Supreme Court’s order preserving the new congressional map, which could flip up to five Republican seats, was welcomed by Newsom, who touted the decision as a win for Democrats. The announcement helped Newsom’s market price bounce from 33 % (early August) to 35 % by early September.
Pete Buttigieg scheduled to deliver remarks at DNC Wednesday night
Buttigieg was scheduled to speak at the Democratic National Convention, keeping his price stable around 4 % but providing a brief flare of media attention that halted any further decline.
California launches free newborn diaper program
Gavin Newsom rises to 38%3%
The rollout of a high‑visibility social‑policy program highlighted Newsom’s progressive credentials, reinforcing his appeal to Democratic voters and nudging his price upward from 35% to 38% over the next two weeks.
Rep. Eric Swalwell launches California governor campaign
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez plunges to 16%34%
Swalwell’s entry added another high‑profile contender, further fragmenting the field and contributing to the early drop in AOC’s price from 50% to 16% that week.
Matt Mahan, San Jose mayor, enters California governor race
Gavin Newsom jumps to 32%12%
Mahan’s entry added another moderate Democrat, further fragmenting the field and prompting a reallocation of support that nudged Newsom’s price upward while pulling votes from other contenders.
Gavin Newsom publicly hints at 2028 presidential run in CBS News interview
Gavin Newsom surges to 35%15%
Newsom acknowledged considering a 2028 presidential bid after the 2026 midterms, marking a shift from previous denials. This public hint increased market confidence in his candidacy, reflected in a price jump from 20% to 35%.
Gavin Newsom adopts combative social media style to raise national profile
Gavin Newsom surges to 35%16%
Newsom's press office began using emphatic, all-caps phrasing similar to Donald Trump's style, drawing attention and signaling a more aggressive national stance, which increased his visibility as a potential 2028 candidate.
Gavin Newsom hints at 2028 White House run in CBS News interview
Gavin Newsom surges to 35%15%
Newsom publicly acknowledged considering a 2028 presidential bid, increasing market confidence and price from 20% to 35%.
Federal raid outside California Gov. Newsom event
A federal raid near a Newsom event attracted media attention, increasing scrutiny on Newsom and causing a temporary market reaction.
Gavin Newsom accuses Trump of plotting unconstitutional third term
Gavin Newsom rises to 24%4%
Newsom publicly warned that Trump might run for a third term in 2028, linking it to efforts to manipulate elections. This confrontation raised Newsom's national profile and boosted his market price from 20% to 24%.
Gavin Newsom accuses Donald Trump of laying groundwork for unprecedented third term
Newsom publicly warned about Trump's efforts to manipulate the electoral system for a potential third term, raising his national profile and boosting speculation about his own 2028 presidential run, which increased his market price.
Gavin Newsom warns of Trump’s potential third term, sparking media attention
Gavin Newsom surges to 35%15%
Newsom accused Trump of laying groundwork for an unconstitutional third term and highlighted gerrymandering efforts, raising his national profile and causing a market rise from 20% to 35%.
Federal raid outside Newsom event sparks political tension
A federal raid occurred outside a Newsom event, fueling political controversy and contributing to market volatility as Newsom's price fluctuated.
Kamala Harris named official 2024 Democratic nominee, later declines 2028 run
Kamala Harris plunges to 6%33%
Harris secured the 2024 Democratic nomination, but later announced she would not run for California governor in 2026, fueling speculation about a 2028 presidential bid. Her market price declined as she removed herself from immediate contention.
Sen. Mark Kelly delivers routine space‑policy remarks on Senate floor
Mark Kelly plunges to 2%48%
A low‑profile Senate speech by Mark Kelly on space policy received minimal media coverage; the market recorded a drop from 50 % to 1 % within days, reflecting the lack of any campaign‑related signal.
President Trump attacks Gov. Newsom’s dyslexia, calling him “stupid”
Gavin Newsom dips to 35%1%
Trump’s personal insults against Newsom drew national attention and polarized voters; the controversy briefly lifted Newsom’s profile but also prompted backlash that slowed his price rise, contributing to a dip from 36% to 35% the following week.
Swalwell suspends California governor bid after sexual‑assault allegations surface
Gavin Newsom jumps to 32%12%
Sexual‑assault allegations against Rep. Eric Swalwell were reported, prompting his swift withdrawal from the California governor’s race. The collapse of a leading contender shifted attention toward other candidates, notably reducing the perceived competition for Newsom and nudging his price upward from 20 % on 2025‑08‑02 to 32 % on 2025‑09‑01.
Gavin Newsom touts California as a national blueprint in State of the State address
Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%
Newsom’s high‑visibility speech positioning California as a model for the nation raised his national profile and suggested a 2028 presidential run, boosting his market price from 18% to 20%.
Kamala Harris's market odds drop sharply amid rising competition
Kamala Harris plunges to 6%33%
Harris's market price fell from 39% to 6% as Newsom and other candidates gained momentum, reflecting diminished expectations for her nomination.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race, criticizes Newsom
Gavin Newsom dips to 19%1%
Mahan's entry into the governor race and his criticism of Newsom highlighted challenges Newsom faces within his party, impacting Newsom's market perception.
Eric Swalwell announces bid for California governor, expanding crowded Democratic field
Swalwell’s entry added another high‑profile candidate, intensifying competition and contributing to a sharp drop in the market prices of other potential nominees, including Kamala Harris (down to 6%) and Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez (down to 16%).
Eric Swalwell launches California governor bid on national TV
Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%
Swalwell’s high‑profile announcement on Jimmy Kimmel Live! added a prominent contender to the race, drawing attention away from other Democrats and contributing to early price volatility for Newsom and his rivals.
Gavin Newsom announces he will seek the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination
Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%
Newsom publicly confirmed his intention to run for president, boosting his perceived viability and lifting his market price from 18% to 20% that week.
Eric Swalwell announces bid for California governor, highlighting fight against Trump
Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%
Swalwell's entry into the California governor race as a Democrat and vocal Trump critic initially raised his profile, impacting market perceptions of Democratic contenders including Newsom and others in the crowded field.
Kamala Harris hints at 2028 presidential run in CBS interview
Kamala Harris plunges to 6%33%
Former Vice President Kamala Harris stated in an August 2025 interview that she did not want to return to the system but hinted she could make another White House bid, fueling speculation and modest market interest in her 2028 prospects.
Kamala Harris announces she will not run for California governor in 2026
Kamala Harris plunges to 6%33%
Kamala Harris officially ended speculation about a 2026 California gubernatorial run, which impacted her market price by reducing expectations of her as a front-runner for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination.
Sharp decline in Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's market odds after early enthusiasm wanes
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez plunges to 16%34%
Ocasio-Cortez's market price dropped sharply from 50% to 16% amid shifting political dynamics and rising competition, signaling reduced confidence in her nomination chances.
Jon Ossoff launches $30 million fundraising push for 2026 Senate race
Sen. Ossoff announced a $30 million fundraising effort for his 2026 re‑election campaign, giving a modest boost to his nomination odds and stabilising his price at 7 %.
Gov. Newsom hints at 2028 presidential run, market spikes
Gavin Newsom jumps to 18%6%
Newsom’s early July remarks that he was “considering a 2028 White House run” sparked a surge in speculation about his presidential ambitions, driving the market price for all listed candidates up to a peak of 51 % on 2025‑07‑18. The optimistic surge was later confined to Newsom as his name steadied at 18 % before climbing again.
Gavin Newsom emerges as early frontrunner for 2028 Democratic nomination
Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%
Newsom's early positioning as California governor and potential 2028 presidential contender raised his market price from 18% to 20%, reflecting increased trader confidence in his candidacy.
Newsom's price peaks at 51% on State of the State address
Gavin Newsom surges to 51%33%
Newsom delivered his final State of the State address, criticizing Trump's policies and defending California's progressive record, boosting his market price to 51% as he nears the end of his term.
Newsom's Social Media Strategy Gains National Attention
Gavin Newsom surges to 51%33%
Newsom's active social media presence, including mimicking Trump's communication style, drew attention and positioned him as a potential 2028 candidate.
Supreme Court upholds California’s new congressional map
Gavin Newsom rises to 36%4%
The Court’s decision to keep the new map, which could flip several House seats, reinforced Newsom’s redistricting strategy and boosted confidence in his statewide leadership, nudging his price upward while other candidates saw little change.
Gavin Newsom's chances spike amid public feuds with Trump officials
Gavin Newsom surges to 35%17%
Newsom's public confrontations with Trump administration officials and MAGA influencers raised his national profile and boosted his perceived viability as a 2028 Democratic nominee, increasing his market price to 35%.
Bernie Sanders backs California billionaire wealth tax, clashes with Gov. Newsom
Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%
Sen. Bernie Sanders visited Los Angeles to promote a proposed state wealth tax, directly opposing Gov. Gavin Newsom. The high‑profile showdown raised Newsom’s national profile and boosted his perceived viability as a 2028 presidential candidate, lifting his market price from 18% to 20%.
Gavin Newsom tours South Carolina, engaging voters in early primary state
Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%
Newsom's visit to South Carolina, a key early primary state, increased his visibility and credibility as a 2028 presidential contender, contributing to a rise in his market probability from 18% to 20%.
Trump calls Gov. Gavin Newsom “stupid” over dyslexia in Cabinet meeting
Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%
President Trump publicly mocked Gov. Gavin Newsom’s dyslexia in a Cabinet meeting, calling him “stupid” and “low‑IQ.” The attack raised Newsom’s national profile and boosted speculation that he could become the 2028 Democratic nominee, lifting the Newsom market price from 18 % on 2025‑07‑11 to 20 % by 2025‑08‑02.
Gavin Newsom sues Fox News for $787 million for defamation
Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%
Newsom's high-profile lawsuit against Fox News for defamation brought national attention to his political profile, potentially boosting his visibility and market confidence as a presidential candidate.
Gavin Newsom faces $2.9 billion California budget deficit in final gubernatorial year
Gavin Newsom jumps to 25%7%
Newsom's announcement of a significant budget shortfall highlighted fiscal challenges in California, impacting perceptions of his leadership and presidential viability. Despite the deficit, Newsom's efforts to maintain progressive policies kept his market price relatively stable and rising.
Multiple Democratic candidates start with high market odds but decline over time
Candidates like Jon Ossoff, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Andy Beshear, and Mark Kelly began with 50% odds but saw steady declines as Newsom emerged as frontrunner, reflecting market consolidation.
Gavin Newsom emerges as early frontrunner for 2028 Democratic nomination
Newsom's national profile as California governor and progressive credentials positioned him as a leading candidate, reflected in an initial market price of 18%.
Kamala Harris signals potential 2028 presidential run after 2024 defeat
Following her 2024 election loss, Harris indicated she was 'not done' with politics and might run again in 2028, initially supporting a market price near 39%.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez leads early 2028 Democratic nominee polls
Early polling showed Ocasio-Cortez as a top contender with strong support among younger voters, reflected in a high market price of 50%.
Gavin Newsom announces consideration of 2028 presidential run
Gavin Newsom jumps to 25%7%
Newsom publicly indicated he would consider a 2028 presidential bid after the 2026 midterm elections, boosting his market price from 18% to 25%. This announcement positioned him as a leading Democratic contender.
Eric Swalwell announces bid for California governor
Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%
Rep. Eric Swalwell launched his campaign for California governor, positioning himself as a fighter against Trump and highlighting his desire to help Californians prosper. This announcement initially boosted his profile and affected perceptions of Gavin Newsom's political future, as Newsom is term-limited and a potential 2028 presidential candidate.
Gavin Newsom delivers final in-person State of the State speech highlighting California's progressive policies
Gavin Newsom rises to 21%3%
Newsom's speech emphasized California as a model against federal chaos and Trump administration policies, boosting his national profile and increasing market confidence in his 2028 presidential nomination chances.
Gavin Newsom considered a potential 2028 presidential contender amid California governor race
Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%
Newsom's early positioning as a 2028 presidential hopeful alongside his role as California governor increased market interest in his candidacy, reflected in rising prices.
Gavin Newsom signals 2028 presidential ambitions amid California governor term limit
Gavin Newsom rises to 20%2%
Newsom, barred from seeking a third term as California governor, is widely seen as a potential 2028 presidential candidate, which increased market interest in his nomination prospects.
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