**Persistent inflation pressures above the 3% target, with the annual rate accelerating to 5.84% in May 2026 from 5.68% in April—the highest reading since August 2024—are the dominant driver behind the 80.5% market-implied probability of a rate hike at the Banco de la República’s June 30 meeting.** The policy rate has been held at 11.25% since the April 30 decision, following earlier 2026 hikes that reversed prior easing. Rising price pressures in categories such as transport, health, and housing, alongside broader evidence of excess demand and elevated inflation expectations, have reinforced trader expectations for tighter policy. The low 0.3% probability assigned to a cut reflects the central bank’s focus on returning inflation to target amid these conditions, while the 17.5% odds of no change capture residual uncertainty around the exact timing and magnitude of any adjustment. Upcoming data releases and the June 30 announcement itself remain the key near-term catalysts shaping these probabilities.