Polymarket traders' consensus, backed by real capital, prices a tight race for Canada's 2026 annual CPI inflation between the 2.5–2.9% bin at 46.3% implied probability and 2.0–2.4% at 37.2%, reflecting March 2026 CPI's surge to 2.4% year-over-year—driven by Middle East conflict-spiked gasoline costs—against the Bank of Canada's upgraded April forecast of 2.3% average for the year amid steady 2.25% policy rate. Key differentiators include persistent energy volatility and US tariff risks pushing upside potential, versus cooling core inflation and moderate 1.2% GDP growth anchoring expectations near the 2% target. Swing factors hinge on April CPI data and the June 10 Bank of Canada meeting, with oil prices as the pivotal catalyst.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoInflación anual de Canadá 2026
Inflación anual de Canadá 2026
2.5–2.9% 46.2%
2.0–2.4% 37.1%
3,5-3,9% 23.9%
4.0%+ 10.6%
$16,118 Vol.
$16,118 Vol.
<1,0%
1%
1.0–1.4%
14%
1.5–1.9%
7%
2.0–2.4%
37%
2.5–2.9%
46%
3,0-3,4%
6%
3,5-3,9%
15%
4.0%+
10%
2.5–2.9% 46.2%
2.0–2.4% 37.1%
3,5-3,9% 23.9%
4.0%+ 10.6%
$16,118 Vol.
$16,118 Vol.
<1,0%
1%
1.0–1.4%
14%
1.5–1.9%
7%
2.0–2.4%
37%
2.5–2.9%
46%
3,0-3,4%
6%
3,5-3,9%
15%
4.0%+
10%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
Mercado abierto: Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders' consensus, backed by real capital, prices a tight race for Canada's 2026 annual CPI inflation between the 2.5–2.9% bin at 46.3% implied probability and 2.0–2.4% at 37.2%, reflecting March 2026 CPI's surge to 2.4% year-over-year—driven by Middle East conflict-spiked gasoline costs—against the Bank of Canada's upgraded April forecast of 2.3% average for the year amid steady 2.25% policy rate. Key differentiators include persistent energy volatility and US tariff risks pushing upside potential, versus cooling core inflation and moderate 1.2% GDP growth anchoring expectations near the 2% target. Swing factors hinge on April CPI data and the June 10 Bank of Canada meeting, with oil prices as the pivotal catalyst.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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