Polymarket traders' skin-in-the-game consensus prices a 31% implied probability for April's unemployment rate holding at March's 4.3% level, with 4.2% (25%) and 4.4% (23%) in tight contention amid mixed labor signals. March's BLS report showed nonfarm payrolls beating lowered expectations at +178,000 jobs alongside a steady 4.3% rate, but recent initial jobless claims ticked up to 214,000 for the week ending April 18 before easing to 189,000, ADP private payrolls averaged a tepid 39,000 weekly in early April, and ISM manufacturing employment contracted to 48.7. These crosscurrents highlight household survey volatility and subdued hiring as key swing factors ahead of tomorrow's BLS release.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoTasa de desempleo de abril
Tasa de desempleo de abril
4,3% 31%
4,2% 25%
4.4% 21%
4,5% 8.1%
$40,765 Vol.
$40,765 Vol.
8 may 2026
≤3,9%
2%
4,0%
3%
4,1%
6%
4,2%
25%
4,3%
31%
4.4%
21%
4,5%
8%
4,6%
3%
≥4.7%
2%
4,3% 31%
4,2% 25%
4.4% 21%
4,5% 8.1%
$40,765 Vol.
$40,765 Vol.
8 may 2026
≤3,9%
$2,704 Vol.
2%
4,0%
$2,887 Vol.
3%
4,1%
$3,656 Vol.
6%
4,2%
$4,810 Vol.
25%
4,3%
$3,173 Vol.
31%
4.4%
$11,263 Vol.
21%
4,5%
$2,287 Vol.
8%
4,6%
$3,105 Vol.
3%
≥4.7%
$6,879 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for April 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders' skin-in-the-game consensus prices a 31% implied probability for April's unemployment rate holding at March's 4.3% level, with 4.2% (25%) and 4.4% (23%) in tight contention amid mixed labor signals. March's BLS report showed nonfarm payrolls beating lowered expectations at +178,000 jobs alongside a steady 4.3% rate, but recent initial jobless claims ticked up to 214,000 for the week ending April 18 before easing to 189,000, ADP private payrolls averaged a tepid 39,000 weekly in early April, and ISM manufacturing employment contracted to 48.7. These crosscurrents highlight household survey volatility and subdued hiring as key swing factors ahead of tomorrow's BLS release.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for April 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Mercado abierto: Apr 3, 2026, 6:55 PM ET
Volumen
$40,765Fecha de finalización
8 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 3, 2026, 6:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for April 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders' skin-in-the-game consensus prices a 31% implied probability for April's unemployment rate holding at March's 4.3% level, with 4.2% (25%) and 4.4% (23%) in tight contention amid mixed labor signals. March's BLS report showed nonfarm payrolls beating lowered expectations at +178,000 jobs alongside a steady 4.3% rate, but recent initial jobless claims ticked up to 214,000 for the week ending April 18 before easing to 189,000, ADP private payrolls averaged a tepid 39,000 weekly in early April, and ISM manufacturing employment contracted to 48.7. These crosscurrents highlight household survey volatility and subdued hiring as key swing factors ahead of tomorrow's BLS release.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for April 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volumen
$40,765Fecha de finalización
8 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 3, 2026, 6:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders' skin-in-the-game consensus prices a 31% implied probability for April's unemployment rate holding at March's 4.3% level, with 4.2% (25%) and 4.4% (23%) in tight contention amid mixed labor signals. March's BLS report showed nonfarm payrolls beating lowered expectations at +178,000 jobs alongside a steady 4.3% rate, but recent initial jobless claims ticked up to 214,000 for the week ending April 18 before easing to 189,000, ADP private payrolls averaged a tepid 39,000 weekly in early April, and ISM manufacturing employment contracted to 48.7. These crosscurrents highlight household survey volatility and subdued hiring as key swing factors ahead of tomorrow's BLS release.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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