Trader consensus implies a 65.5% probability of House impeachment against President Trump before January 20, 2029, driven primarily by Democratic leaders' public vows to pursue articles of impeachment on "day one" if they regain House control following the November 2026 midterms. Recent filings, including H.Res. 939 and others introduced in April 2026 by Rep. John Larson citing high crimes and misdemeanors, gained traction after Trump's April 7 Truth Social post threatening Iran, sparking bipartisan removal calls and 25th Amendment discussions. With Republicans holding a slim current House majority, markets hinge on midterm polling trends favoring Democrats in battleground districts, historical midterm losses for the president's party, and procedural feasibility of a simple majority House vote absent Senate conviction.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$60,672 Vol.
$60,672 Vol.
Jan 20, 2029
$60,672 Vol.
$60,672 Vol.
Jan 20, 2029
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Trader consensus implies a 65.5% probability of House impeachment against President Trump before January 20, 2029, driven primarily by Democratic leaders' public vows to pursue articles of impeachment on "day one" if they regain House control following the November 2026 midterms. Recent filings, including H.Res. 939 and others introduced in April 2026 by Rep. John Larson citing high crimes and misdemeanors, gained traction after Trump's April 7 Truth Social post threatening Iran, sparking bipartisan removal calls and 25th Amendment discussions. With Republicans holding a slim current House majority, markets hinge on midterm polling trends favoring Democrats in battleground districts, historical midterm losses for the president's party, and procedural feasibility of a simple majority House vote absent Senate conviction.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Market Opened: Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Volume
$60,672End Date
Jan 20, 2029Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Trader consensus implies a 65.5% probability of House impeachment against President Trump before January 20, 2029, driven primarily by Democratic leaders' public vows to pursue articles of impeachment on "day one" if they regain House control following the November 2026 midterms. Recent filings, including H.Res. 939 and others introduced in April 2026 by Rep. John Larson citing high crimes and misdemeanors, gained traction after Trump's April 7 Truth Social post threatening Iran, sparking bipartisan removal calls and 25th Amendment discussions. With Republicans holding a slim current House majority, markets hinge on midterm polling trends favoring Democrats in battleground districts, historical midterm losses for the president's party, and procedural feasibility of a simple majority House vote absent Senate conviction.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Volume
$60,672End Date
Jan 20, 2029Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implies a 65.5% probability of House impeachment against President Trump before January 20, 2029, driven primarily by Democratic leaders' public vows to pursue articles of impeachment on "day one" if they regain House control following the November 2026 midterms. Recent filings, including H.Res. 939 and others introduced in April 2026 by Rep. John Larson citing high crimes and misdemeanors, gained traction after Trump's April 7 Truth Social post threatening Iran, sparking bipartisan removal calls and 25th Amendment discussions. With Republicans holding a slim current House majority, markets hinge on midterm polling trends favoring Democrats in battleground districts, historical midterm losses for the president's party, and procedural feasibility of a simple majority House vote absent Senate conviction.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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