Trader consensus prices an 85% chance that Missouri Amendment 3—a legislatively referred constitutional amendment certified for the November 3 ballot—will fail, reflecting skepticism after voters narrowly approved reproductive freedom rights including abortion up to fetal viability in 2024. The measure would repeal that provision, limit abortions to medical emergencies, fetal anomalies, rape or incest before 12 weeks, require parental consent for minors, and prohibit gender transition procedures for minors, building on the existing SAFE Act ban upheld by the state Supreme Court in January. A February SLU/YouGov poll of 900 likely voters showed slim support at 47% yes versus 40% no and 12% undecided, with opposition committees raising over $1.8 million compared to supporters' $320,000 through early 2026. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past 30 days beyond Catholic bishops' late-March endorsement and anti-abortion campaign organization, underscoring an uncertain path amid historical voter protection of abortion access.