SpaceX's confidential S-1 filing on April 1 and detailed IPO roadmap targeting a late-May prospectus release and early-June roadshow have solidified trader consensus at 96.7% implied probability for it outpacing OpenAI, reflecting concrete progress toward a potential listing by mid-2026 amid $1.7 trillion-plus valuations from recent tenders. OpenAI, despite Sam Altman's ambitions for a late-2026 debut, faces headwinds including CFO Sarah Friar's public reservations over missed revenue targets, $600 billion in spending commitments, and internal restructuring, delaying any filing. While SpaceX's Starship milestones bolster momentum, realistic risks like SEC review delays, volatile markets, Elon Musk's pivots, or OpenAI's surprise acceleration could still shift outcomes before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSpaceX
$73,907 Vol.
$73,907 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
SpaceX
$73,907 Vol.
$73,907 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
This market will resolve to "SpaceX" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.SpaceX's confidential S-1 filing on April 1 and detailed IPO roadmap targeting a late-May prospectus release and early-June roadshow have solidified trader consensus at 96.7% implied probability for it outpacing OpenAI, reflecting concrete progress toward a potential listing by mid-2026 amid $1.7 trillion-plus valuations from recent tenders. OpenAI, despite Sam Altman's ambitions for a late-2026 debut, faces headwinds including CFO Sarah Friar's public reservations over missed revenue targets, $600 billion in spending commitments, and internal restructuring, delaying any filing. While SpaceX's Starship milestones bolster momentum, realistic risks like SEC review delays, volatile markets, Elon Musk's pivots, or OpenAI's surprise acceleration could still shift outcomes before resolution.
This market will resolve to "SpaceX" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 30, 2026, 3:06 PM ET
Volume
$73,907End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 3:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "SpaceX" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.SpaceX's confidential S-1 filing on April 1 and detailed IPO roadmap targeting a late-May prospectus release and early-June roadshow have solidified trader consensus at 96.7% implied probability for it outpacing OpenAI, reflecting concrete progress toward a potential listing by mid-2026 amid $1.7 trillion-plus valuations from recent tenders. OpenAI, despite Sam Altman's ambitions for a late-2026 debut, faces headwinds including CFO Sarah Friar's public reservations over missed revenue targets, $600 billion in spending commitments, and internal restructuring, delaying any filing. While SpaceX's Starship milestones bolster momentum, realistic risks like SEC review delays, volatile markets, Elon Musk's pivots, or OpenAI's surprise acceleration could still shift outcomes before resolution.
This market will resolve to "SpaceX" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$73,907End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 3:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...SpaceX's confidential S-1 filing on April 1 and detailed IPO roadmap targeting a late-May prospectus release and early-June roadshow have solidified trader consensus at 96.7% implied probability for it outpacing OpenAI, reflecting concrete progress toward a potential listing by mid-2026 amid $1.7 trillion-plus valuations from recent tenders. OpenAI, despite Sam Altman's ambitions for a late-2026 debut, faces headwinds including CFO Sarah Friar's public reservations over missed revenue targets, $600 billion in spending commitments, and internal restructuring, delaying any filing. While SpaceX's Starship milestones bolster momentum, realistic risks like SEC review delays, volatile markets, Elon Musk's pivots, or OpenAI's surprise acceleration could still shift outcomes before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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