Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 98.6% implied probability, driven by the Powerball jackpot resetting to an estimated $20 million for the May 2 drawing after two winning tickets split the $143 million prize on April 29. With roughly 12 drawings remaining through May 31, historical growth patterns—even accelerated by the recent UK expansion boosting ticket sales—make a climb to $1 billion improbable, as jackpots typically require dozens of rollovers to reach that threshold. Realistic upset scenarios include an unprecedented streak of no jackpot winners coupled with record-breaking sales volumes per drawing, though the 1-in-292.2 million odds per ticket render this a long-shot amid heightened player participation. Traders eye upcoming drawings for early momentum signals.