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Powell predictions & odds

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Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

99%

June 30

$3M Vol.

$143K Liq.

52

Ends in 13 days

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

46%

December 31

$233K Vol.

$21.9K Liq.

12

Ends in 8 months

Jerome Powell departs as Fed Chair by...?

Jerome Powell departs as Fed Chair by...?

99%

June 30

$29.8K Vol.

$8.6K Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

When will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair?

When will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair?

94%

May 15–22

$71.6K Vol.

$33.6K Liq.

Ends in 2 months

Will trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair before he leaves?

Will trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair before he leaves?

6%

$87.1K Vol.

$4.5K Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by...?

Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by...?

21%

December 31

$13.6K Vol.

$6.8K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?

Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?

4%

$263K Vol.

$2.5K Liq.

33

Ends in about 2 months

Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?

Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?

6%

$3.5K Vol.

$3.2K Liq.

1

Ends in 8 months

Will Powell Industries (POWL) beat quarterly earnings?

Will Powell Industries (POWL) beat quarterly earnings?

93%

$333 Vol.

$2.6K Liq.

Ends in 4 days

Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

99%

Kevin Warsh

$47M Vol.

$467K today

$3M Liq.

91

Ends in 6 months

Fed Decision in June?

Fed Decision in June?

96%

No change

$14M Vol.

$1M today

$2M Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

57%

0 (0 bps)

$22M Vol.

$243K today

$961K Liq.

61

Ends in 8 months

Fed Decision in July?

Fed Decision in July?

88%

No change

$4M Vol.

$104K today

$750K Liq.

1

Ends in 3 months

Fed rate cut by...?

Fed rate cut by...?

46%

December Meeting

$2M Vol.

$124K Liq.

17

Ends in about 2 months

Who will Trump publicly insult by April 30?

Who will Trump publicly insult by April 30?

10%

Marjorie Taylor Greene

$357K Vol.

$47.6K Liq.

Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?

Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?

34%

No Next PM in 2026

$5M Vol.

$650K Liq.

52

Ends in 8 months

Who will Trump publicly insult by May 31?

Who will Trump publicly insult by May 31?

88%

Barack Obama

$65.9K Vol.

$26.6K Liq.

Ends in 30 days

Fed Decision in September?

Fed Decision in September?

79%

No change

$3.3K Vol.

$58.0K Liq.

Ends in 5 months

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

55%

3.75%

$6M Vol.

$262K Liq.

6

Ends in 7 months

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Fed rate hike in 2026?

18%

$974K Vol.

$10.6K Liq.

Ends in 7 months

Frequently Asked Questions

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Polymarket currently hosts 151 active markets for Powell that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $105.4M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 99% chance to Kevin Warsh. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on Powell predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.