The United Arab Emirates' announcement on April 28 to exit OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1—citing quota constraints and the need for production flexibility amid Iran war tensions—marks the first departure of 2026, framing trader focus on whether another follows. With "No" at 66.5%, the wisdom of crowds reflects no similar public signals from remaining members like Nigeria, Iraq, or Algeria, bolstered by recent OPEC+ output adjustments in March by Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait to support market stability. Historical precedents, such as Angola's 2024 exit, were isolated quota disputes without cascades, and no upcoming OPEC summits or no-confidence indicators suggest further ruptures before year-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill another country leave OPEC in 2026?
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
NEW
$96,837 Vol.
NEW
$96,837 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
NEW
$96,837 Vol.
NEW
$96,837 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The United Arab Emirates' announcement on April 28 to exit OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1—citing quota constraints and the need for production flexibility amid Iran war tensions—marks the first departure of 2026, framing trader focus on whether another follows. With "No" at 66.5%, the wisdom of crowds reflects no similar public signals from remaining members like Nigeria, Iraq, or Algeria, bolstered by recent OPEC+ output adjustments in March by Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait to support market stability. Historical precedents, such as Angola's 2024 exit, were isolated quota disputes without cascades, and no upcoming OPEC summits or no-confidence indicators suggest further ruptures before year-end resolution.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Volume
$96,837End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The United Arab Emirates' announcement on April 28 to exit OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1—citing quota constraints and the need for production flexibility amid Iran war tensions—marks the first departure of 2026, framing trader focus on whether another follows. With "No" at 66.5%, the wisdom of crowds reflects no similar public signals from remaining members like Nigeria, Iraq, or Algeria, bolstered by recent OPEC+ output adjustments in March by Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait to support market stability. Historical precedents, such as Angola's 2024 exit, were isolated quota disputes without cascades, and no upcoming OPEC summits or no-confidence indicators suggest further ruptures before year-end resolution.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$96,837End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The United Arab Emirates' announcement on April 28 to exit OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1—citing quota constraints and the need for production flexibility amid Iran war tensions—marks the first departure of 2026, framing trader focus on whether another follows. With "No" at 66.5%, the wisdom of crowds reflects no similar public signals from remaining members like Nigeria, Iraq, or Algeria, bolstered by recent OPEC+ output adjustments in March by Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait to support market stability. Historical precedents, such as Angola's 2024 exit, were isolated quota disputes without cascades, and no upcoming OPEC summits or no-confidence indicators suggest further ruptures before year-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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