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Politics·United Nations

Who will be the next Secretary-General of the UN?

icon for Who will be the next Secretary-General of the UN?
Politics·United Nations

Who will be the next Secretary-General of the UN?

Rafael Grossi 50%

Michelle Bachelet 26%

Jacinda Ardern 20.6%

Rebeca Grynspan 20.2%

Polymarket

$48,339 Vol.

Rafael Grossi 50%

Michelle Bachelet 26%

Jacinda Ardern 20.6%

Rebeca Grynspan 20.2%

Polymarket

$48,339 Vol.

Rafael Grossi

$18,502 Vol.

50%

Michelle Bachelet

$18,946 Vol.

26%

Jacinda Ardern

$613 Vol.

21%

Rebeca Grynspan

$2,252 Vol.

20%

Maria Fernanda Espinosa Garcés

$718 Vol.

14%

Colombe Cahen-Salvador

$849 Vol.

2%

David Choquehuanca

$740 Vol.

2%

Vuk Jeremić

$703 Vol.

2%

Alicia Bárcena

$574 Vol.

1%

Bruno Donat

$614 Vol.

1%

Amina Mohammed

$2,049 Vol.

1%

Achim Steiner

$725 Vol.

1%

Mia Mottley

$559 Vol.

1%

Kristalina Georgieva

$497 Vol.

<1%

A United Nations Secretary-General selection is expected to be held in 2026 to choose the next Secretary-General of the United Nations. This market will resolve according to the listed person who is officially chosen to be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations in this selection process. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Secretary-Generals appointed before the next Secretary-General selection will not count. If no United Nations Secretary-General selection takes place or the results of this selection are not known by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Rafael Grossi leads trader consensus at 49.5% implied probability for UN Secretary-General, buoyed by his high-profile IAEA Director General role navigating nuclear crises in Iran and Ukraine, Argentina's formal nomination, and a strong April 21 interactive dialogue outlining multilateral reforms. Michelle Bachelet's 27.5% reflects Latin American and Caribbean Group (GRULAC) momentum from Brazil and Mexico after Chile's March withdrawal, despite her human rights expertise. Rebeca Grynspan's 21.4% stems from UNCTAD leadership and crisis diplomacy pledges in recent hearings, while Jacinda Ardern's 21.1% captures speculative buzz on her global stature despite no formal backing. Security Council vetting looms amid regional rotation favoring GRULAC.

A United Nations Secretary-General selection is expected to be held in 2026 to choose the next Secretary-General of the United Nations.

This market will resolve according to the listed person who is officially chosen to be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations in this selection process.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder Secretary-Generals appointed before the next Secretary-General selection will not count.

If no United Nations Secretary-General selection takes place or the results of this selection are not known by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$48,339
End Date
Feb 28, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 11, 2025, 7:30 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A United Nations Secretary-General selection is expected to be held in 2026 to choose the next Secretary-General of the United Nations. This market will resolve according to the listed person who is officially chosen to be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations in this selection process. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Secretary-Generals appointed before the next Secretary-General selection will not count. If no United Nations Secretary-General selection takes place or the results of this selection are not known by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A United Nations Secretary-General selection is expected to be held in 2026 to choose the next Secretary-General of the United Nations. This market will resolve according to the listed person who is officially chosen to be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations in this selection process. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Secretary-Generals appointed before the next Secretary-General selection will not count. If no United Nations Secretary-General selection takes place or the results of this selection are not known by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Rafael Grossi leads trader consensus at 49.5% implied probability for UN Secretary-General, buoyed by his high-profile IAEA Director General role navigating nuclear crises in Iran and Ukraine, Argentina's formal nomination, and a strong April 21 interactive dialogue outlining multilateral reforms. Michelle Bachelet's 27.5% reflects Latin American and Caribbean Group (GRULAC) momentum from Brazil and Mexico after Chile's March withdrawal, despite her human rights expertise. Rebeca Grynspan's 21.4% stems from UNCTAD leadership and crisis diplomacy pledges in recent hearings, while Jacinda Ardern's 21.1% captures speculative buzz on her global stature despite no formal backing. Security Council vetting looms amid regional rotation favoring GRULAC.

A United Nations Secretary-General selection is expected to be held in 2026 to choose the next Secretary-General of the United Nations.

This market will resolve according to the listed person who is officially chosen to be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations in this selection process.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder Secretary-Generals appointed before the next Secretary-General selection will not count.

If no United Nations Secretary-General selection takes place or the results of this selection are not known by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$48,339
End Date
Feb 28, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 11, 2025, 7:30 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A United Nations Secretary-General selection is expected to be held in 2026 to choose the next Secretary-General of the United Nations. This market will resolve according to the listed person who is officially chosen to be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations in this selection process. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Secretary-Generals appointed before the next Secretary-General selection will not count. If no United Nations Secretary-General selection takes place or the results of this selection are not known by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will be the next Secretary-General of the UN?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 14 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Rafael Grossi" at 50%, followed by "Michelle Bachelet" at 26%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 50¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 50% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will be the next Secretary-General of the UN?" has generated $48.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 12, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will be the next Secretary-General of the UN?," browse the 14 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will be the next Secretary-General of the UN?" is "Rafael Grossi" at 50%, meaning the market assigns a 50% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Michelle Bachelet" at 26%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will be the next Secretary-General of the UN?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.