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Elections·Trump

NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner
Elections·Trump

NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner

Micah Lasher 45%

Alex Bores 34%

Jack Schlossberg 21%

Keith Powers 1.4%

Polymarket

$348,028 Vol.

Micah Lasher 45%

Alex Bores 34%

Jack Schlossberg 21%

Keith Powers 1.4%

Polymarket

$348,028 Vol.

Micah Lasher

$12,644 Vol.

45%

Alex Bores

$7,404 Vol.

34%

Jack Schlossberg

$10,538 Vol.

21%

Keith Powers

$5,754 Vol.

1%

Liam Elkind

$3,985 Vol.

1%

Lina Khan

$40,912 Vol.

<1%

Brad Hoylman-Sigal

$7,046 Vol.

<1%

Liz Krueger

$57,168 Vol.

<1%

Erik Bottcher

$4,154 Vol.

<1%

Carolyn Maloney

$4,412 Vol.

<1%

Gale Brewer

$3,859 Vol.

<1%

Brad Lander

$80,516 Vol.

<1%

Cameron Kasky

$4,797 Vol.

<1%

Julie Menin

$24,989 Vol.

<1%

Chelsea Clinton

$9,810 Vol.

<1%

Scott Stringer

$58,390 Vol.

<1%

Andrew Cuomo

$3,681 Vol.

<1%

Cynthia Nixon

$4,304 Vol.

<1%

George Conway

$3,664 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In the open race for New York's 12th Congressional District Democratic primary after Rep. Jerry Nadler's retirement, trader consensus prices State Assemblymember Micah Lasher as the frontrunner at 44.5% implied probability, bolstered by Gov. Kathy Hochul's April 13 endorsement and up to $5 million from Michael Bloomberg's super PAC. Assemblymember Alex Bores trails at 34%, leveraging union support like DC 37, while Jack Schlossberg holds 20.5% on Kennedy name recognition and social media appeal despite limited experience. A mid-April Bores internal poll showed Schlossberg narrowly leading 22%-19%-14%, but markets favor establishment resources amid recent candidate forums highlighting housing, childcare, and Trump opposition. The June 23 primary hinges on undecided voters and turnout in this safe Democratic Manhattan district.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$348,028
End Date
Jun 23, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 21, 2025, 10:47 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In the open race for New York's 12th Congressional District Democratic primary after Rep. Jerry Nadler's retirement, trader consensus prices State Assemblymember Micah Lasher as the frontrunner at 44.5% implied probability, bolstered by Gov. Kathy Hochul's April 13 endorsement and up to $5 million from Michael Bloomberg's super PAC. Assemblymember Alex Bores trails at 34%, leveraging union support like DC 37, while Jack Schlossberg holds 20.5% on Kennedy name recognition and social media appeal despite limited experience. A mid-April Bores internal poll showed Schlossberg narrowly leading 22%-19%-14%, but markets favor establishment resources amid recent candidate forums highlighting housing, childcare, and Trump opposition. The June 23 primary hinges on undecided voters and turnout in this safe Democratic Manhattan district.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$348,028
End Date
Jun 23, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 21, 2025, 10:47 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 19 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Micah Lasher" at 45%, followed by "Alex Bores" at 34%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 45¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $348K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 21, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 19 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Micah Lasher" at 45%, meaning the market assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Alex Bores" at 34%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.