Trader consensus on Polymarket has coalesced around Google at 100% implied probability for possessing the third-best AI model by April 30, 2026, driven by its Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview model holding the #3 spot on the LMArena Chatbot Arena "Text Arena | Overall" leaderboard with an Elo score around 1493—behind OpenAI's GPT-5.5 and Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7. This positioning stems from recent benchmark demonstrations showcasing Gemini 3.1's superior multi-task reasoning and long-context handling, securing granular score advantages over challengers like xAI's Grok-4 or Meta's Llama models. With resolution imminent at noon ET today, minimal time remains for disruptive releases or leaderboard shifts, though a surprise drop from OpenAI or Anthropic, or an unannounced rival surpassing Gemini, could theoretically upend the top three.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGoogle 100.0%
Anthropic <1%
Mistral <1%
Baidu <1%
$1,102,087 Vol.
$1,102,087 Vol.

100%

Anthropic
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Baidu
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

OpenAI
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Meta
<1%

Microsoft
<1%

xAI
<1%

Meituan
<1%
Google 100.0%
Anthropic <1%
Mistral <1%
Baidu <1%
$1,102,087 Vol.
$1,102,087 Vol.

100%

Anthropic
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Baidu
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

OpenAI
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Meta
<1%

Microsoft
<1%

xAI
<1%

Meituan
<1%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket has coalesced around Google at 100% implied probability for possessing the third-best AI model by April 30, 2026, driven by its Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview model holding the #3 spot on the LMArena Chatbot Arena "Text Arena | Overall" leaderboard with an Elo score around 1493—behind OpenAI's GPT-5.5 and Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7. This positioning stems from recent benchmark demonstrations showcasing Gemini 3.1's superior multi-task reasoning and long-context handling, securing granular score advantages over challengers like xAI's Grok-4 or Meta's Llama models. With resolution imminent at noon ET today, minimal time remains for disruptive releases or leaderboard shifts, though a surprise drop from OpenAI or Anthropic, or an unannounced rival surpassing Gemini, could theoretically upend the top three.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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