President Trump's state visit to China, confirmed by the Chinese foreign ministry and White House schedule, runs from May 13 to 15, with his arrival in Beijing today via Air Force One and key bilateral meetings with Xi Jinping planned through Friday. Trader consensus reflects 98% implied probability on a May 15 departure, anchored in the published itinerary showing no events beyond that date amid discussions on trade, Iran tensions, Taiwan, and technology. This commanding lead stems from advance logistics already in place and no signals of extension. Realistic challenges include unexpected diplomatic breakthroughs prompting an extra day, flight delays, security issues, or health events altering the timeline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhen will Trump leave China?
When will Trump leave China?
May 15 97.6%
May 16 1.1%
May 14 <1%
After May 18 <1%
NEW
$69,971 Vol.
NEW
$69,971 Vol.
May 20, 2026
May 14
1%
May 15
98%
May 16
1%
May 17
<1%
May 18
<1%
After May 18
1%
May 15 97.6%
May 16 1.1%
May 14 <1%
After May 18 <1%
NEW
$69,971 Vol.
NEW
$69,971 Vol.
May 20, 2026
May 14
$16,034 Vol.
1%
May 15
$14,472 Vol.
98%
May 16
$13,212 Vol.
1%
May 17
$4,775 Vol.
<1%
May 18
$1,050 Vol.
<1%
After May 18
$2,474 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the calendar day, in China Standard Time, on which Donald Trump physically leaves China during his first visit to China that begins by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time.
A "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Trump will be considered to leave China once he physically leaves the terrestrial and maritime territory of China. Trump’s presence in Chinese airspace will not be considered as being physically present in China.
If Donald Trump begins visits China before May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, but does not leave China by that time, this market will resolve to “After May 18”.
If Donald Trump does not visit China by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No visit by May 18”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts, and a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's state visit to China, confirmed by the Chinese foreign ministry and White House schedule, runs from May 13 to 15, with his arrival in Beijing today via Air Force One and key bilateral meetings with Xi Jinping planned through Friday. Trader consensus reflects 98% implied probability on a May 15 departure, anchored in the published itinerary showing no events beyond that date amid discussions on trade, Iran tensions, Taiwan, and technology. This commanding lead stems from advance logistics already in place and no signals of extension. Realistic challenges include unexpected diplomatic breakthroughs prompting an extra day, flight delays, security issues, or health events altering the timeline.
This market will resolve according to the calendar day, in China Standard Time, on which Donald Trump physically leaves China during his first visit to China that begins by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time.
A "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Trump will be considered to leave China once he physically leaves the terrestrial and maritime territory of China. Trump’s presence in Chinese airspace will not be considered as being physically present in China.
If Donald Trump begins visits China before May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, but does not leave China by that time, this market will resolve to “After May 18”.
If Donald Trump does not visit China by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No visit by May 18”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Trump will be considered to leave China once he physically leaves the terrestrial and maritime territory of China. Trump’s presence in Chinese airspace will not be considered as being physically present in China.
If Donald Trump begins visits China before May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, but does not leave China by that time, this market will resolve to “After May 18”.
If Donald Trump does not visit China by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No visit by May 18”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: May 11, 2026, 4:26 PM ET
Volume
$69,971End Date
May 20, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 4:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar day, in China Standard Time, on which Donald Trump physically leaves China during his first visit to China that begins by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time.
A "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Trump will be considered to leave China once he physically leaves the terrestrial and maritime territory of China. Trump’s presence in Chinese airspace will not be considered as being physically present in China.
If Donald Trump begins visits China before May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, but does not leave China by that time, this market will resolve to “After May 18”.
If Donald Trump does not visit China by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No visit by May 18”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts, and a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's state visit to China, confirmed by the Chinese foreign ministry and White House schedule, runs from May 13 to 15, with his arrival in Beijing today via Air Force One and key bilateral meetings with Xi Jinping planned through Friday. Trader consensus reflects 98% implied probability on a May 15 departure, anchored in the published itinerary showing no events beyond that date amid discussions on trade, Iran tensions, Taiwan, and technology. This commanding lead stems from advance logistics already in place and no signals of extension. Realistic challenges include unexpected diplomatic breakthroughs prompting an extra day, flight delays, security issues, or health events altering the timeline.
This market will resolve according to the calendar day, in China Standard Time, on which Donald Trump physically leaves China during his first visit to China that begins by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time.
A "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Trump will be considered to leave China once he physically leaves the terrestrial and maritime territory of China. Trump’s presence in Chinese airspace will not be considered as being physically present in China.
If Donald Trump begins visits China before May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, but does not leave China by that time, this market will resolve to “After May 18”.
If Donald Trump does not visit China by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No visit by May 18”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Trump will be considered to leave China once he physically leaves the terrestrial and maritime territory of China. Trump’s presence in Chinese airspace will not be considered as being physically present in China.
If Donald Trump begins visits China before May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, but does not leave China by that time, this market will resolve to “After May 18”.
If Donald Trump does not visit China by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No visit by May 18”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$69,971End Date
May 20, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 4:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...President Trump's state visit to China, confirmed by the Chinese foreign ministry and White House schedule, runs from May 13 to 15, with his arrival in Beijing today via Air Force One and key bilateral meetings with Xi Jinping planned through Friday. Trader consensus reflects 98% implied probability on a May 15 departure, anchored in the published itinerary showing no events beyond that date amid discussions on trade, Iran tensions, Taiwan, and technology. This commanding lead stems from advance logistics already in place and no signals of extension. Realistic challenges include unexpected diplomatic breakthroughs prompting an extra day, flight delays, security issues, or health events altering the timeline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions