Recent polls, including Yanhaas tracking on May 9 and Atlas Intel late April, place Iván Cepeda Castro atop first-round voting intention at 35-38%, with Paloma Valencia and Abelardo de la Espriella vying for second at 19-30%, their combined right-wing support splitting the opposition vote and blocking any outright majority under Colombia's two-round system. This fragmentation drives trader consensus, pricing a 42% chance of a first-round winner against near-equal 41% odds for top-two pairs like de la Espriella-Valencia or Cepeda with either right-winger advancing to the June runoff. A debunked AI-generated poll last week claiming Cepeda's outright victory heightened volatility; upcoming debates and endorsements could consolidate the field before the May 31 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedColombia Election: Who will advance to 2nd round?
Colombia Election: Who will advance to 2nd round?
Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro 57%
Paloma Valencia & Iván Cepeda Castro 37%
Abelardo de la Espriella & Paloma Valencia 25%
1st Round Outright Winner 15%
NEW
NEW
May 31, 2026
Abelardo de la Espriella & Paloma Valencia
25%
Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro
57%
Paloma Valencia & Iván Cepeda Castro
37%
Other
13%
1st Round Outright Winner
15%
Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro 57%
Paloma Valencia & Iván Cepeda Castro 37%
Abelardo de la Espriella & Paloma Valencia 25%
1st Round Outright Winner 15%
NEW
NEW
May 31, 2026
Abelardo de la Espriella & Paloma Valencia
$0 Vol.
25%
Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro
$0 Vol.
57%
Paloma Valencia & Iván Cepeda Castro
$0 Vol.
37%
Other
$0 Vol.
13%
1st Round Outright Winner
$0 Vol.
15%
Colombia's presidential election first round is scheduled for May 31, 2026, with two candidates advancing to a second round on June 21, 2026 if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”.
If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Recent polls, including Yanhaas tracking on May 9 and Atlas Intel late April, place Iván Cepeda Castro atop first-round voting intention at 35-38%, with Paloma Valencia and Abelardo de la Espriella vying for second at 19-30%, their combined right-wing support splitting the opposition vote and blocking any outright majority under Colombia's two-round system. This fragmentation drives trader consensus, pricing a 42% chance of a first-round winner against near-equal 41% odds for top-two pairs like de la Espriella-Valencia or Cepeda with either right-winger advancing to the June runoff. A debunked AI-generated poll last week claiming Cepeda's outright victory heightened volatility; upcoming debates and endorsements could consolidate the field before the May 31 vote.
Colombia's presidential election first round is scheduled for May 31, 2026, with two candidates advancing to a second round on June 21, 2026 if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”.
If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”.
If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Market Opened: May 13, 2026, 2:51 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Colombia's presidential election first round is scheduled for May 31, 2026, with two candidates advancing to a second round on June 21, 2026 if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”.
If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Recent polls, including Yanhaas tracking on May 9 and Atlas Intel late April, place Iván Cepeda Castro atop first-round voting intention at 35-38%, with Paloma Valencia and Abelardo de la Espriella vying for second at 19-30%, their combined right-wing support splitting the opposition vote and blocking any outright majority under Colombia's two-round system. This fragmentation drives trader consensus, pricing a 42% chance of a first-round winner against near-equal 41% odds for top-two pairs like de la Espriella-Valencia or Cepeda with either right-winger advancing to the June runoff. A debunked AI-generated poll last week claiming Cepeda's outright victory heightened volatility; upcoming debates and endorsements could consolidate the field before the May 31 vote.
Colombia's presidential election first round is scheduled for May 31, 2026, with two candidates advancing to a second round on June 21, 2026 if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”.
If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
This market will resolve according to the listed pair of candidates that advance to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
If any candidate wins this election outright in the first round, this market will resolve to “1st Round Outright Winner”.
If any candidate pair other than the listed pairs advances to the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Volume
$0End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls, including Yanhaas tracking on May 9 and Atlas Intel late April, place Iván Cepeda Castro atop first-round voting intention at 35-38%, with Paloma Valencia and Abelardo de la Espriella vying for second at 19-30%, their combined right-wing support splitting the opposition vote and blocking any outright majority under Colombia's two-round system. This fragmentation drives trader consensus, pricing a 42% chance of a first-round winner against near-equal 41% odds for top-two pairs like de la Espriella-Valencia or Cepeda with either right-winger advancing to the June runoff. A debunked AI-generated poll last week claiming Cepeda's outright victory heightened volatility; upcoming debates and endorsements could consolidate the field before the May 31 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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