Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects Elon's variable X posting patterns, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 100-159 tweets for May 15-22, driven by recent weekly tallies hovering near 90-140 amid quieter days (9-23 posts) punctuated by bursts like 36-40. His surprise mid-flight tweeting spree en route to Beijing with President Trump's delegation—confirmed via Starlink on Air Force One—has recalibrated sentiment, blending travel constraints with potential live updates from high-stakes Xi Jinping meetings. Key differentiators include event-driven spikes from Tesla China developments or political viral moments versus lulls during diplomacy; watch for engagement surges as the trip unfolds, with no clear frontrunner due to Elon's unpredictable pop culture rhythm.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated120-139 19%
140-159 16%
100-119 16%
160-179 11%
$515,255 Vol.
$515,255 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
1%
60-79
3%
80-99
10%
100-119
16%
120-139
19%
140-159
16%
160-179
11%
180-199
8%
200-219
6%
220-239
4%
240-259
3%
260-279
2%
280-299
1%
300-319
1%
320-339
1%
340-359
1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
120-139 19%
140-159 16%
100-119 16%
160-179 11%
$515,255 Vol.
$515,255 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
1%
60-79
3%
80-99
10%
100-119
16%
120-139
19%
140-159
16%
160-179
11%
180-199
8%
200-219
6%
220-239
4%
240-259
3%
260-279
2%
280-299
1%
300-319
1%
320-339
1%
340-359
1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: May 12, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects Elon's variable X posting patterns, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 100-159 tweets for May 15-22, driven by recent weekly tallies hovering near 90-140 amid quieter days (9-23 posts) punctuated by bursts like 36-40. His surprise mid-flight tweeting spree en route to Beijing with President Trump's delegation—confirmed via Starlink on Air Force One—has recalibrated sentiment, blending travel constraints with potential live updates from high-stakes Xi Jinping meetings. Key differentiators include event-driven spikes from Tesla China developments or political viral moments versus lulls during diplomacy; watch for engagement surges as the trip unfolds, with no clear frontrunner due to Elon's unpredictable pop culture rhythm.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
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