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Politics·United Kingdom

Candidates in next Labour leadership election?

icon for Candidates in next Labour leadership election?
Politics·United Kingdom

Candidates in next Labour leadership election?

NEW
Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$0.00 Vol.

Polymarket

Keir Starmer

$0 Vol.

42%

Wes Streeting

$0 Vol.

43%

Ed Miliband

$0 Vol.

42%

Angela Rayner

$0 Vol.

46%

Al Carns

$0 Vol.

42%

Andy Burnham

$0 Vol.

42%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is an official candidate in the next United Kingdom Labour Party leadership election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Official candidate” refers to the listed individual satisfying all applicable requirements and being officially confirmed by the Labour Party, or a consensus of credible reporting, as a candidate on the ballot for the next Labour Party leadership election. Seeking nominations, announcing an intention to run, or being reported as a potential candidate will not qualify unless the individual is officially confirmed as a candidate on the ballot. If a Labour Party leadership election occurs, or the final candidates are confirmed, and the listed individual is not included as a candidate, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such election is scheduled, or the listed individual is not officially confirmed as a candidate, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed individual becomes the next leader of the Labour Party without any competitive ballot election, that will suffice for a “Yes” resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Kingdom Labour Party; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces an intensifying Labour Party leadership crisis after heavy losses in the May 7, 2026, local elections prompted over 80 MPs to demand his resignation and four ministers—including aides—to quit since May 11. On May 13, Health Secretary Wes Streeting reportedly prepared to resign following a Downing Street meeting, potentially triggering a formal contest where a challenger needs nominations from 20% of the parliamentary party (about 81 MPs) to proceed to member and union votes. Potential candidates include Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham (seeking a by-election to enter Parliament), and Streeting himself; party membership has surged in Starmer's support. Traders monitor MP headcounts, union endorsements, and Starmer's cabinet consolidation efforts, with no challenge yet confirmed.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is an official candidate in the next United Kingdom Labour Party leadership election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

“Official candidate” refers to the listed individual satisfying all applicable requirements and being officially confirmed by the Labour Party, or a consensus of credible reporting, as a candidate on the ballot for the next Labour Party leadership election. Seeking nominations, announcing an intention to run, or being reported as a potential candidate will not qualify unless the individual is officially confirmed as a candidate on the ballot.

If a Labour Party leadership election occurs, or the final candidates are confirmed, and the listed individual is not included as a candidate, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such election is scheduled, or the listed individual is not officially confirmed as a candidate, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the listed individual becomes the next leader of the Labour Party without any competitive ballot election, that will suffice for a “Yes” resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Kingdom Labour Party; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 2:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is an official candidate in the next United Kingdom Labour Party leadership election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Official candidate” refers to the listed individual satisfying all applicable requirements and being officially confirmed by the Labour Party, or a consensus of credible reporting, as a candidate on the ballot for the next Labour Party leadership election. Seeking nominations, announcing an intention to run, or being reported as a potential candidate will not qualify unless the individual is officially confirmed as a candidate on the ballot. If a Labour Party leadership election occurs, or the final candidates are confirmed, and the listed individual is not included as a candidate, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such election is scheduled, or the listed individual is not officially confirmed as a candidate, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed individual becomes the next leader of the Labour Party without any competitive ballot election, that will suffice for a “Yes” resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Kingdom Labour Party; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is an official candidate in the next United Kingdom Labour Party leadership election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Official candidate” refers to the listed individual satisfying all applicable requirements and being officially confirmed by the Labour Party, or a consensus of credible reporting, as a candidate on the ballot for the next Labour Party leadership election. Seeking nominations, announcing an intention to run, or being reported as a potential candidate will not qualify unless the individual is officially confirmed as a candidate on the ballot. If a Labour Party leadership election occurs, or the final candidates are confirmed, and the listed individual is not included as a candidate, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such election is scheduled, or the listed individual is not officially confirmed as a candidate, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed individual becomes the next leader of the Labour Party without any competitive ballot election, that will suffice for a “Yes” resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Kingdom Labour Party; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces an intensifying Labour Party leadership crisis after heavy losses in the May 7, 2026, local elections prompted over 80 MPs to demand his resignation and four ministers—including aides—to quit since May 11. On May 13, Health Secretary Wes Streeting reportedly prepared to resign following a Downing Street meeting, potentially triggering a formal contest where a challenger needs nominations from 20% of the parliamentary party (about 81 MPs) to proceed to member and union votes. Potential candidates include Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham (seeking a by-election to enter Parliament), and Streeting himself; party membership has surged in Starmer's support. Traders monitor MP headcounts, union endorsements, and Starmer's cabinet consolidation efforts, with no challenge yet confirmed.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is an official candidate in the next United Kingdom Labour Party leadership election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

“Official candidate” refers to the listed individual satisfying all applicable requirements and being officially confirmed by the Labour Party, or a consensus of credible reporting, as a candidate on the ballot for the next Labour Party leadership election. Seeking nominations, announcing an intention to run, or being reported as a potential candidate will not qualify unless the individual is officially confirmed as a candidate on the ballot.

If a Labour Party leadership election occurs, or the final candidates are confirmed, and the listed individual is not included as a candidate, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such election is scheduled, or the listed individual is not officially confirmed as a candidate, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the listed individual becomes the next leader of the Labour Party without any competitive ballot election, that will suffice for a “Yes” resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Kingdom Labour Party; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 2:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is an official candidate in the next United Kingdom Labour Party leadership election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Official candidate” refers to the listed individual satisfying all applicable requirements and being officially confirmed by the Labour Party, or a consensus of credible reporting, as a candidate on the ballot for the next Labour Party leadership election. Seeking nominations, announcing an intention to run, or being reported as a potential candidate will not qualify unless the individual is officially confirmed as a candidate on the ballot. If a Labour Party leadership election occurs, or the final candidates are confirmed, and the listed individual is not included as a candidate, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such election is scheduled, or the listed individual is not officially confirmed as a candidate, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed individual becomes the next leader of the Labour Party without any competitive ballot election, that will suffice for a “Yes” resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Kingdom Labour Party; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Candidates in next Labour leadership election?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Angela Rayner" at 46%, followed by "Wes Streeting" at 43%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 46¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 46% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Candidates in next Labour leadership election?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on May 13, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Candidates in next Labour leadership election?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Candidates in next Labour leadership election?" is "Angela Rayner" at 46%, meaning the market assigns a 46% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Wes Streeting" at 43%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Candidates in next Labour leadership election?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.