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Politics·Mentions

What will Trump say in May?

icon for What will Trump say in May?
Politics·Mentions

What will Trump say in May?

NEW
May 31, 2026
Polymarket

$1,507 Vol.

Polymarket

Pope

$447 Vol.

31%

Barack Hussein Obamacare

$5 Vol.

22%

Bunker

$0 Vol.

46%

Egghead

$2 Vol.

30%

Iwo Jima

$1 Vol.

35%

Six Seven

$615 Vol.

34%

Mar-a-Lago

$3 Vol.

76%

Golden Dome

$0 Vol.

51%

Skedaddle

$1 Vol.

50%

ISIS

$5 Vol.

75%

Pizza

$1 Vol.

43%

Prediction Market

$108 Vol.

25%

Discombobulator / Discombobulated

$0 Vol.

51%

Braggadocious

$0 Vol.

23%

Bitcoin

$3 Vol.

33%

Epstein

$48 Vol.

46%

Asshole

$24 Vol.

24%

Buy Dell Computer / Buy a Dell Computer

$0 Vol.

44%

Pulitzer

$0 Vol.

44%

Favorite Chart

$0 Vol.

43%

Big Bang

$1 Vol.

49%

Darth Vader

$2 Vol.

25%

White House Faith Office

$0 Vol.

46%

Christmas

$0 Vol.

28%

Robot

$6 Vol.

38%

Nuke

$241 Vol.

82%

Terminate the Filibuster

$0 Vol.

50%

Cat

$0 Vol.

44%

America Last

$0 Vol.

41%

Neville / Chamberlain

$0 Vol.

28%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between May 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns high implied probabilities to President Trump verbally mentioning "Nuke" (83%), "Mar-a-Lago" (76%), and "ISIS" (75%) in recorded public speeches or events during May 1-31, 2026, reflecting his frequent rally rhetoric amid Strait of Hormuz tensions and recent Iran threats. An April 25 assassination attempt at the White House Correspondents' Dinner, with suspect charges filed April 27, has elevated odds for security terms like "Bunker" (46%) and escalated nuclear references post-incident. Trump's April 24 criticism of prediction markets as a "global casino" boosts that phrase (27%), while the May 17 National Mall prayer event for rededicating America "one nation under God" favors faith-related outcomes like "Pope" (31%) and "White House Faith Office" (42%). Federal Reserve Chair Powell's May 15 term end and crypto bill markups loom as catalysts.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between May 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Volume
$1,507
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 4:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between May 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between May 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns high implied probabilities to President Trump verbally mentioning "Nuke" (83%), "Mar-a-Lago" (76%), and "ISIS" (75%) in recorded public speeches or events during May 1-31, 2026, reflecting his frequent rally rhetoric amid Strait of Hormuz tensions and recent Iran threats. An April 25 assassination attempt at the White House Correspondents' Dinner, with suspect charges filed April 27, has elevated odds for security terms like "Bunker" (46%) and escalated nuclear references post-incident. Trump's April 24 criticism of prediction markets as a "global casino" boosts that phrase (27%), while the May 17 National Mall prayer event for rededicating America "one nation under God" favors faith-related outcomes like "Pope" (31%) and "White House Faith Office" (42%). Federal Reserve Chair Powell's May 15 term end and crypto bill markups loom as catalysts.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between May 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Volume
$1,507
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 4:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between May 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"What will Trump say in May?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 30 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Nuke" at 82%, followed by "Mar-a-Lago" at 77%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 82¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 82% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"What will Trump say in May?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 27, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "What will Trump say in May?," browse the 30 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "What will Trump say in May?" is "Nuke" at 82%, meaning the market assigns a 82% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Mar-a-Lago" at 77%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "What will Trump say in May?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.