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Politics·Primaries

UT-01 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for UT-01 Democratic Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

UT-01 Democratic Primary Winner

Ben McAdams 73%

Nate Blouin 26%

Brian King 2.9%

Caroline Gleich 2.8%

Polymarket

$26,657 Vol.

Ben McAdams 73%

Nate Blouin 26%

Brian King 2.9%

Caroline Gleich 2.8%

Polymarket

$26,657 Vol.

Ben McAdams

$7,399 Vol.

73%

Nate Blouin

$3,807 Vol.

26%

Brian King

$974 Vol.

3%

Caroline Gleich

$959 Vol.

3%

Luz Escamilla

$5,614 Vol.

1%

Kathleen Riebe

$1,421 Vol.

<1%

Kael Weston

$979 Vol.

<1%

Erin Mendenhall

$4,293 Vol.

<1%

Jenny Wilson

$1,211 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former U.S. Rep. Ben McAdams leads trader consensus at 73% implied probability for Utah's 1st Congressional District Democratic primary on June 23, driven by his top polling (36% in late March Data for Progress survey), superior fundraising ($1.5 million raised, $863,000 cash on hand), and prior name recognition from his 2019-2021 House service and Salt Lake County mayoralty. State Sen. Nate Blouin's 25% share reflects progressive endorsements like Bernie Sanders' but is weighed down by mid-April resurfacing of decade-old offensive social media posts mocking Mormons and joking about sexual assault. Liban Mohamed's narrow ranked-choice convention endorsement win on April 25 boosted activists but failed to sway broader primary odds, as delegates differ from voters; low-fundraised challengers like Caroline Gleich trail. No new polls have emerged post-convention.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$26,657
End Date
Jun 23, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 4:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former U.S. Rep. Ben McAdams leads trader consensus at 73% implied probability for Utah's 1st Congressional District Democratic primary on June 23, driven by his top polling (36% in late March Data for Progress survey), superior fundraising ($1.5 million raised, $863,000 cash on hand), and prior name recognition from his 2019-2021 House service and Salt Lake County mayoralty. State Sen. Nate Blouin's 25% share reflects progressive endorsements like Bernie Sanders' but is weighed down by mid-April resurfacing of decade-old offensive social media posts mocking Mormons and joking about sexual assault. Liban Mohamed's narrow ranked-choice convention endorsement win on April 25 boosted activists but failed to sway broader primary odds, as delegates differ from voters; low-fundraised challengers like Caroline Gleich trail. No new polls have emerged post-convention.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$26,657
End Date
Jun 23, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 4:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"UT-01 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Ben McAdams" at 73%, followed by "Nate Blouin" at 26%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 73¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 73% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "UT-01 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $26.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "UT-01 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "UT-01 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Ben McAdams" at 73%, meaning the market assigns a 73% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Nate Blouin" at 26%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "UT-01 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.