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Elections·Midterms

CT-01 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for CT-01 Democratic Primary Winner
Elections·Midterms

CT-01 Democratic Primary Winner

Luke Bronin 47%

John Larson 36%

Jillian Gilchrest 4.9%

Mark Stewart Greenstein 2.0%

Polymarket
NEW

Luke Bronin 47%

John Larson 36%

Jillian Gilchrest 4.9%

Mark Stewart Greenstein 2.0%

Polymarket
NEW

Luke Bronin

$3,092 Vol.

47%

John Larson

$651 Vol.

38%

Jillian Gilchrest

$1,769 Vol.

5%

Mark Stewart Greenstein

$1,473 Vol.

2%

Ruth Fortune

$800 Vol.

9%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In Connecticut's 1st Congressional District Democratic primary set for August 11, trader consensus favors former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin at 47% implied probability over 14-term incumbent Rep. John Larson at 37.5%, driven by Bronin's superior Q1 2026 fundraising—$511,000 raised and $1.8 million cash on hand versus Larson's $452,000 and $1.1 million—highlighting his organizational strength despite Larson's March internal poll lead (49%-26%). The race stays tight atop due to Larson's endorsements, including House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, and undecided voters amid generational change arguments against the 77-year-old incumbent. Separation could come from independent polls, high-profile endorsements, candidate debates, or shifts in turnout among urban and suburban Democratic voting blocs.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$7,786
End Date
Aug 11, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 5:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In Connecticut's 1st Congressional District Democratic primary set for August 11, trader consensus favors former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin at 47% implied probability over 14-term incumbent Rep. John Larson at 37.5%, driven by Bronin's superior Q1 2026 fundraising—$511,000 raised and $1.8 million cash on hand versus Larson's $452,000 and $1.1 million—highlighting his organizational strength despite Larson's March internal poll lead (49%-26%). The race stays tight atop due to Larson's endorsements, including House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, and undecided voters amid generational change arguments against the 77-year-old incumbent. Separation could come from independent polls, high-profile endorsements, candidate debates, or shifts in turnout among urban and suburban Democratic voting blocs.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$7,786
End Date
Aug 11, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 5:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"CT-01 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Luke Bronin" at 47%, followed by "John Larson" at 38%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 47¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"CT-01 Democratic Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Feb 26, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "CT-01 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "CT-01 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Luke Bronin" at 47%, meaning the market assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "John Larson" at 38%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "CT-01 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.