Trader consensus heavily favors President Trump completing his term at least through 2026, with "No" implying an 86.5% probability, anchored by Republican majorities in the House and Senate that block impeachment conviction requiring a two-thirds Senate vote or 25th Amendment invocation needing Cabinet consensus. Recent Democratic escalations—NAACP's April 7 call for 25th Amendment action citing health concerns, alongside party demands for removal after Trump's Iran Strait of Hormuz rhetoric—have stirred speculation but gained no procedural traction, as GOP leadership holds firm. Broader markets price higher impeachment risk before 2028 (around 68%) tied to November 2026 midterms, yet no fresh catalysts in the past week elevate near-term exit odds amid stable administration actions like college sports policy.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$8,442,404 Vol.
$8,442,404 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$8,442,404 Vol.
$8,442,404 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors President Trump completing his term at least through 2026, with "No" implying an 86.5% probability, anchored by Republican majorities in the House and Senate that block impeachment conviction requiring a two-thirds Senate vote or 25th Amendment invocation needing Cabinet consensus. Recent Democratic escalations—NAACP's April 7 call for 25th Amendment action citing health concerns, alongside party demands for removal after Trump's Iran Strait of Hormuz rhetoric—have stirred speculation but gained no procedural traction, as GOP leadership holds firm. Broader markets price higher impeachment risk before 2028 (around 68%) tied to November 2026 midterms, yet no fresh catalysts in the past week elevate near-term exit odds amid stable administration actions like college sports policy.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ET
Volume
$8,442,404End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors President Trump completing his term at least through 2026, with "No" implying an 86.5% probability, anchored by Republican majorities in the House and Senate that block impeachment conviction requiring a two-thirds Senate vote or 25th Amendment invocation needing Cabinet consensus. Recent Democratic escalations—NAACP's April 7 call for 25th Amendment action citing health concerns, alongside party demands for removal after Trump's Iran Strait of Hormuz rhetoric—have stirred speculation but gained no procedural traction, as GOP leadership holds firm. Broader markets price higher impeachment risk before 2028 (around 68%) tied to November 2026 midterms, yet no fresh catalysts in the past week elevate near-term exit odds amid stable administration actions like college sports policy.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$8,442,404End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors President Trump completing his term at least through 2026, with "No" implying an 86.5% probability, anchored by Republican majorities in the House and Senate that block impeachment conviction requiring a two-thirds Senate vote or 25th Amendment invocation needing Cabinet consensus. Recent Democratic escalations—NAACP's April 7 call for 25th Amendment action citing health concerns, alongside party demands for removal after Trump's Iran Strait of Hormuz rhetoric—have stirred speculation but gained no procedural traction, as GOP leadership holds firm. Broader markets price higher impeachment risk before 2028 (around 68%) tied to November 2026 midterms, yet no fresh catalysts in the past week elevate near-term exit odds amid stable administration actions like college sports policy.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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