Trader consensus reflects the Nate Silver Bulletin's April 30 average of 39% approval for President Trump, with late-April polls like Reuters/Ipsos (37% approve) and Economist/YouGov (40%) clustering tightly amid second-term lows driven by inflation and cost-of-living concerns—net -40 in the tracker—and broader economic pessimism, where most Americans rate conditions as fair or poor and worsening. The ongoing Iran conflict adds foreign policy drag, with 60% disapproval per recent surveys. No major catalysts emerged in the past 48 hours, sustaining the razor-thin split between 39.0–39.4% and 39.5–39.9%; fresh polls incorporated into today's update or economic data releases could tip the balance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated39.0–39.4 82%
39.5–39.9 20%
38.5–38.9 3.3%
38.0–38.4 <1%
$24,536 Vol.
$24,536 Vol.
May 1, 2026
<38.0
1%
38.0–38.4
1%
38.5–38.9
3%
39.0–39.4
65%
39.5–39.9
23%
40.0+
1%
39.0–39.4 82%
39.5–39.9 20%
38.5–38.9 3.3%
38.0–38.4 <1%
$24,536 Vol.
$24,536 Vol.
May 1, 2026
<38.0
$2,609 Vol.
1%
38.0–38.4
$2,231 Vol.
1%
38.5–38.9
$3,025 Vol.
3%
39.0–39.4
$7,270 Vol.
65%
39.5–39.9
$4,911 Vol.
23%
40.0+
$4,516 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on May 1, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus reflects the Nate Silver Bulletin's April 30 average of 39% approval for President Trump, with late-April polls like Reuters/Ipsos (37% approve) and Economist/YouGov (40%) clustering tightly amid second-term lows driven by inflation and cost-of-living concerns—net -40 in the tracker—and broader economic pessimism, where most Americans rate conditions as fair or poor and worsening. The ongoing Iran conflict adds foreign policy drag, with 60% disapproval per recent surveys. No major catalysts emerged in the past 48 hours, sustaining the razor-thin split between 39.0–39.4% and 39.5–39.9%; fresh polls incorporated into today's update or economic data releases could tip the balance.
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on May 1, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Apr 24, 2026, 11:19 AM ET
Volume
$24,536End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 24, 2026, 11:19 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on May 1, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus reflects the Nate Silver Bulletin's April 30 average of 39% approval for President Trump, with late-April polls like Reuters/Ipsos (37% approve) and Economist/YouGov (40%) clustering tightly amid second-term lows driven by inflation and cost-of-living concerns—net -40 in the tracker—and broader economic pessimism, where most Americans rate conditions as fair or poor and worsening. The ongoing Iran conflict adds foreign policy drag, with 60% disapproval per recent surveys. No major catalysts emerged in the past 48 hours, sustaining the razor-thin split between 39.0–39.4% and 39.5–39.9%; fresh polls incorporated into today's update or economic data releases could tip the balance.
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on May 1, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$24,536End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 24, 2026, 11:19 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus reflects the Nate Silver Bulletin's April 30 average of 39% approval for President Trump, with late-April polls like Reuters/Ipsos (37% approve) and Economist/YouGov (40%) clustering tightly amid second-term lows driven by inflation and cost-of-living concerns—net -40 in the tracker—and broader economic pessimism, where most Americans rate conditions as fair or poor and worsening. The ongoing Iran conflict adds foreign policy drag, with 60% disapproval per recent surveys. No major catalysts emerged in the past 48 hours, sustaining the razor-thin split between 39.0–39.4% and 39.5–39.9%; fresh polls incorporated into today's update or economic data releases could tip the balance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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