Lionsgate's Michael Jackson biopic Michael crushed expectations with a record-shattering $97 million domestic opening weekend four days ago, eclipsing prior $60-70 million tracking and setting a new benchmark for music biopics amid massive global presales and fan turnout despite mixed reviews. This locked-in haul has driven Polymarket traders to price Michael at 94.4% implied probability to top The Devil Wears Prada 2's bow, as 20th Century Studios' sequel—starring Meryl Streep, Anne Hathaway, and Emily Blunt—tracks for a strong but sub-$95 million debut this May 1 weekend on $20 million in early ticket sales. While DWP2's nostalgia-fueled buzz and counterprogramming could spark walkup surges akin to Michael's overperformance, bridging a 10-20 million gap remains a tall order barring extraordinary word-of-mouth.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedThe Devil Wears Prada 2 vs. Michael Opening Weekend Box Office
The Devil Wears Prada 2 vs. Michael Opening Weekend Box Office
The Devil Wears Prada 2
$48,019 Vol.
$48,019 Vol.
May 4, 2026
The Devil Wears Prada 2
$48,019 Vol.
$48,019 Vol.
May 4, 2026
This market will resolve to "The Devil Wears Prada 2" if the domestic gross for The Devil Wears Prada 2 on its opening weekend is greater than the domestic gross for Michael on its opening weekend.
This market will resolve to "Michael" if the domestic gross for Michael on its opening weekend is greater than the domestic gross for The Devil Wears Prada 2 on its opening weekend.
If the figures for both opening weekends are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50. If either film fails to be released by May 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekends for each movie are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
Lionsgate's Michael Jackson biopic Michael crushed expectations with a record-shattering $97 million domestic opening weekend four days ago, eclipsing prior $60-70 million tracking and setting a new benchmark for music biopics amid massive global presales and fan turnout despite mixed reviews. This locked-in haul has driven Polymarket traders to price Michael at 94.4% implied probability to top The Devil Wears Prada 2's bow, as 20th Century Studios' sequel—starring Meryl Streep, Anne Hathaway, and Emily Blunt—tracks for a strong but sub-$95 million debut this May 1 weekend on $20 million in early ticket sales. While DWP2's nostalgia-fueled buzz and counterprogramming could spark walkup surges akin to Michael's overperformance, bridging a 10-20 million gap remains a tall order barring extraordinary word-of-mouth.
This market will resolve to "The Devil Wears Prada 2" if the domestic gross for The Devil Wears Prada 2 on its opening weekend is greater than the domestic gross for Michael on its opening weekend.
This market will resolve to "Michael" if the domestic gross for Michael on its opening weekend is greater than the domestic gross for The Devil Wears Prada 2 on its opening weekend.
If the figures for both opening weekends are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50. If either film fails to be released by May 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekends for each movie are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
This market will resolve to "Michael" if the domestic gross for Michael on its opening weekend is greater than the domestic gross for The Devil Wears Prada 2 on its opening weekend.
If the figures for both opening weekends are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50. If either film fails to be released by May 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekends for each movie are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
Market Opened: Apr 23, 2026, 5:37 PM ET
Volume
$48,019End Date
May 4, 2026Market Opened
Apr 23, 2026, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "The Devil Wears Prada 2" if the domestic gross for The Devil Wears Prada 2 on its opening weekend is greater than the domestic gross for Michael on its opening weekend.
This market will resolve to "Michael" if the domestic gross for Michael on its opening weekend is greater than the domestic gross for The Devil Wears Prada 2 on its opening weekend.
If the figures for both opening weekends are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50. If either film fails to be released by May 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekends for each movie are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
Lionsgate's Michael Jackson biopic Michael crushed expectations with a record-shattering $97 million domestic opening weekend four days ago, eclipsing prior $60-70 million tracking and setting a new benchmark for music biopics amid massive global presales and fan turnout despite mixed reviews. This locked-in haul has driven Polymarket traders to price Michael at 94.4% implied probability to top The Devil Wears Prada 2's bow, as 20th Century Studios' sequel—starring Meryl Streep, Anne Hathaway, and Emily Blunt—tracks for a strong but sub-$95 million debut this May 1 weekend on $20 million in early ticket sales. While DWP2's nostalgia-fueled buzz and counterprogramming could spark walkup surges akin to Michael's overperformance, bridging a 10-20 million gap remains a tall order barring extraordinary word-of-mouth.
This market will resolve to "The Devil Wears Prada 2" if the domestic gross for The Devil Wears Prada 2 on its opening weekend is greater than the domestic gross for Michael on its opening weekend.
This market will resolve to "Michael" if the domestic gross for Michael on its opening weekend is greater than the domestic gross for The Devil Wears Prada 2 on its opening weekend.
If the figures for both opening weekends are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50. If either film fails to be released by May 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekends for each movie are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
This market will resolve to "Michael" if the domestic gross for Michael on its opening weekend is greater than the domestic gross for The Devil Wears Prada 2 on its opening weekend.
If the figures for both opening weekends are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50. If either film fails to be released by May 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekends for each movie are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
Volume
$48,019End Date
May 4, 2026Market Opened
Apr 23, 2026, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Lionsgate's Michael Jackson biopic Michael crushed expectations with a record-shattering $97 million domestic opening weekend four days ago, eclipsing prior $60-70 million tracking and setting a new benchmark for music biopics amid massive global presales and fan turnout despite mixed reviews. This locked-in haul has driven Polymarket traders to price Michael at 94.4% implied probability to top The Devil Wears Prada 2's bow, as 20th Century Studios' sequel—starring Meryl Streep, Anne Hathaway, and Emily Blunt—tracks for a strong but sub-$95 million debut this May 1 weekend on $20 million in early ticket sales. While DWP2's nostalgia-fueled buzz and counterprogramming could spark walkup surges akin to Michael's overperformance, bridging a 10-20 million gap remains a tall order barring extraordinary word-of-mouth.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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