Avengers: Doomsday leads trader sentiment at 76% implied probability due to its status as a major MCU crossover event featuring Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom, with strong early box office tracking and anticipation for a record December 18 holiday opening despite competition from Dune: Messiah on the same date. Spider-Man: Brand New Day sits at 27.5% on the strength of Tom Holland's established franchise appeal and its July 31 slot, though prior MCU entries show it unlikely to match Avengers-scale debuts. Family titles like The Super Mario Galaxy Movie and Toy Story 5 trail at 4.5% and 1.9% after their respective April and June releases demonstrated solid but not dominant performance, while Dune: Messiah, The Odyssey, and The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping remain long shots given historical patterns for their genres and release windows.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhich movie has biggest opening week in 2026?
Which movie has biggest opening week in 2026?
Avengers: Doomsday 73%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 14%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie 4.5%
Toy Story 5 1.9%
$21,102 Vol.
$21,102 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Avengers: Doomsday
76%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
29%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
5%
Toy Story 5
2%
Dune: Messiah
1%
The Odyssey
1%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
<1%
Avengers: Doomsday 73%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 14%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie 4.5%
Toy Story 5 1.9%
$21,102 Vol.
$21,102 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Avengers: Doomsday
$1,333 Vol.
76%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
$1,191 Vol.
29%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
$1,333 Vol.
5%
Toy Story 5
$816 Vol.
2%
Dune: Messiah
$1,062 Vol.
1%
The Odyssey
$1,213 Vol.
1%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
$1,116 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Avengers: Doomsday leads trader sentiment at 76% implied probability due to its status as a major MCU crossover event featuring Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom, with strong early box office tracking and anticipation for a record December 18 holiday opening despite competition from Dune: Messiah on the same date. Spider-Man: Brand New Day sits at 27.5% on the strength of Tom Holland's established franchise appeal and its July 31 slot, though prior MCU entries show it unlikely to match Avengers-scale debuts. Family titles like The Super Mario Galaxy Movie and Toy Story 5 trail at 4.5% and 1.9% after their respective April and June releases demonstrated solid but not dominant performance, while Dune: Messiah, The Odyssey, and The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping remain long shots given historical patterns for their genres and release windows.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Apr 16, 2026, 3:17 PM ET
Volume
$21,102End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Avengers: Doomsday leads trader sentiment at 76% implied probability due to its status as a major MCU crossover event featuring Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom, with strong early box office tracking and anticipation for a record December 18 holiday opening despite competition from Dune: Messiah on the same date. Spider-Man: Brand New Day sits at 27.5% on the strength of Tom Holland's established franchise appeal and its July 31 slot, though prior MCU entries show it unlikely to match Avengers-scale debuts. Family titles like The Super Mario Galaxy Movie and Toy Story 5 trail at 4.5% and 1.9% after their respective April and June releases demonstrated solid but not dominant performance, while Dune: Messiah, The Odyssey, and The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping remain long shots given historical patterns for their genres and release windows.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$21,102End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Avengers: Doomsday leads trader sentiment at 76% implied probability due to its status as a major MCU crossover event featuring Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom, with strong early box office tracking and anticipation for a record December 18 holiday opening despite competition from Dune: Messiah on the same date. Spider-Man: Brand New Day sits at 27.5% on the strength of Tom Holland's established franchise appeal and its July 31 slot, though prior MCU entries show it unlikely to match Avengers-scale debuts. Family titles like The Super Mario Galaxy Movie and Toy Story 5 trail at 4.5% and 1.9% after their respective April and June releases demonstrated solid but not dominant performance, while Dune: Messiah, The Odyssey, and The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping remain long shots given historical patterns for their genres and release windows.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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