Skip to main content
icon for Which movie has biggest opening week in 2026?

Which movie has biggest opening week in 2026?

icon for Which movie has biggest opening week in 2026?

Which movie has biggest opening week in 2026?

Spider-Man: Brand New Day 49%

Toy Story 5 47.6%

Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu 47.4%

The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping 45.9%

Polymarket
NEW

Spider-Man: Brand New Day 49%

Toy Story 5 47.6%

Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu 47.4%

The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping 45.9%

Polymarket
NEW

Spider-Man: Brand New Day

$144 Vol.

49%

Toy Story 5

$84 Vol.

48%

Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu

$124 Vol.

47%

The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping

$123 Vol.

46%

The Odyssey

$141 Vol.

46%

Michael

$203 Vol.

43%

Dune: Messiah

$182 Vol.

26%

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie

$196 Vol.

4%

Avengers: Doomsday

$274 Vol.

40%

This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week. If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Spider-Man: Brand New Day holds a slim trader consensus edge at 49% implied probability for 2026's biggest opening weekend, fueled by its record-shattering trailer views and surging presales signaling MCU comeback hype in the prime July 31 slot. Michael Jackson biopic's record $97 million domestic debut last weekend—eclipsing all prior biopics—catapulted it to 45.6%, setting a fierce benchmark after Super Mario Galaxy Movie's $190 million-plus early April launch. Toy Story 5 (46.4%) leverages Pixar family legacy ahead of June 19, while Star Wars: The Mandalorian & Grogu (45.5%) tracks $90-100 million for May 22; Nolan's The Odyssey and Hunger Games prequel keep the pack tight. Upcoming presale surges and review reactions will decide amid stacked summer competition.

This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.

If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.

If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$1,473
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 3:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week. If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week. If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Spider-Man: Brand New Day holds a slim trader consensus edge at 49% implied probability for 2026's biggest opening weekend, fueled by its record-shattering trailer views and surging presales signaling MCU comeback hype in the prime July 31 slot. Michael Jackson biopic's record $97 million domestic debut last weekend—eclipsing all prior biopics—catapulted it to 45.6%, setting a fierce benchmark after Super Mario Galaxy Movie's $190 million-plus early April launch. Toy Story 5 (46.4%) leverages Pixar family legacy ahead of June 19, while Star Wars: The Mandalorian & Grogu (45.5%) tracks $90-100 million for May 22; Nolan's The Odyssey and Hunger Games prequel keep the pack tight. Upcoming presale surges and review reactions will decide amid stacked summer competition.

This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.

If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.

If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$1,473
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 3:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week. If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Related

icon for Will Project Hail Mary be the March film with the highest domestic gross on April 30?

Will Project Hail Mary be the March film with the highest domestic gross on April 30?

100%
icon for Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" be the April film with the highest domestic gross on May 31?

Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" be the April film with the highest domestic gross on May 31?

99%
icon for Will Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday gross more on their opening weekend?

Will Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday gross more on their opening weekend?

7%
Dune 3

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Which movie has biggest opening week in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" at 49%, followed by "Toy Story 5" at 48%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 49¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 49% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Which movie has biggest opening week in 2026?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 16, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Which movie has biggest opening week in 2026?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which movie has biggest opening week in 2026?" is "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" at 49%, meaning the market assigns a 49% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Toy Story 5" at 48%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which movie has biggest opening week in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.