This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas.
If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton holds a trader consensus edge at 57.5% over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn's 42% to win the May 26 Republican primary runoff for the U.S. Senate seat, driven by recent polls showing Paxton ahead among GOP primary voters. A nonpartisan Texas Public Opinion Research survey on April 17 gave Paxton an 8-point lead, while others like coefficient.org show a tighter Cornyn 1-point margin, reflecting Paxton's appeal as a base-aligned challenger criticizing Cornyn's establishment ties and bipartisan votes. Cornyn counters with superior fundraising, boasting over $8 million cash-on-hand versus Paxton's $2.6 million after the first quarter. Both advanced from the fragmented March 3 primary where neither exceeded 50%; the race remains volatile ahead of early voting, with potential endorsements or turnout tipping the balance.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas.
If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas.
If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton holds a trader consensus edge at 57.5% over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn's 42% to win the May 26 Republican primary runoff for the U.S. Senate seat, driven by recent polls showing Paxton ahead among GOP primary voters. A nonpartisan Texas Public Opinion Research survey on April 17 gave Paxton an 8-point lead, while others like coefficient.org show a tighter Cornyn 1-point margin, reflecting Paxton's appeal as a base-aligned challenger criticizing Cornyn's establishment ties and bipartisan votes. Cornyn counters with superior fundraising, boasting over $8 million cash-on-hand versus Paxton's $2.6 million after the first quarter. Both advanced from the fragmented March 3 primary where neither exceeded 50%; the race remains volatile ahead of early voting, with potential endorsements or turnout tipping the balance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Apr 30 2026
Reports emerge of no Trump endorsement in runoff; Paxton considers ending candidacy if Senate Republicans eliminate filibuster for Save America Act
Ken Paxton dips to 57%3%
Uncertainty over Trump's endorsement and Paxton's conditional campaign stance caused slight market adjustment.
Apr 30 2026
Conservative Political Action Conference officially endorses Ken Paxton in Senate runoff against John Cornyn
Ken Paxton rises to 60%3%
The CPAC endorsement reinforced Paxton's conservative credentials and boosted his runoff prospects.
Apr 29 2026
Polls show tight race between Cornyn and Paxton ahead of May runoff
John Cornyn rises to 42%3%
Recent polling indicated a close contest, with Cornyn slightly recovering as the runoff neared, reflecting ongoing uncertainty in voter preferences.
Mar 27 2026
Paxton speaks at Conservative Political Action Conference, maintaining strong conservative support despite runoff challenges
Ken Paxton surges to 54%16%
His CPAC appearance reaffirmed his base support and helped recover some lost ground.
Mar 26 2026
Runoff campaign intensifies with negative ads and attacks between Cornyn and Paxton
John Cornyn drops to 52%12%
The heated runoff campaign and Paxton’s attacks on Cornyn’s establishment image caused a decline in Cornyn’s.
Mar 8 2026
Trump signals support for both Cornyn and Paxton, refusing to endorse a single candidate
John Cornyn surges to 91%27%
Trump’s ambiguous stance energized Cornyn’s base and fundraising, causing a peak in market.
Mar 4 2026
No new fundraising or poll data emerges;
Wesley Hunt plunges to 0%17%
analysts note Hunt’s campaign has stalled, driving the
Mar 3 2026
Texas Republican primary held; Cornyn and Paxton advance to runoff
John Cornyn surges to 64%51%
Cornyn’s advancement to the runoff with Paxton after the March 3 primary was a major positive catalyst, sharply increasing his market.
Mar 3 2026
Texas Republican primary results: Paxton and Cornyn advance to runoff, Paxton leads initial vote but falls short of majority
Ken Paxton plunges to 38%45%
The primary outcome caused a sharp
Feb 21 2026
Polls show Cornyn trailing significantly behind Paxton and Hunt
John Cornyn plunges to 13%22%
Public and private polling indicated Cornyn was losing ground, reflecting concerns about his electability and the strength of his opponents.
Feb 21 2026
Paxton surges to peak polling (83-85%) after aggressive campaigning and endorsements, including CPAC's official backing
Ken Paxton surges to 83%34%
The CPAC endorsement and campaign efforts boosted Paxton's perceived electability among conservative voters.
Feb 7 2026
Hunt launches a second statewide TV ad emphasizing his Trump endorsement, briefly lifting his
Wesley Hunt jumps to 17%13%
Hunt launches a second statewide TV ad emphasizing his Trump endorsement, briefly lifting his
Feb 4 2026
Internal poll released by the Senate Leadership Fund shows Cornyn closing the gap on Paxton, marginalizing Hunt’s role and sending his
Wesley Hunt drops to 4%12%
Internal poll released by the Senate Leadership Fund shows Cornyn closing the gap on Paxton, marginalizing Hunt’s role and sending his
Dec 20 2025
Ken Paxton leads his first major campaign rally at Turning Point USA summit, reinforcing his conservative credentials and energizing supporters
Ken Paxton surges to 60%17%
This rally helped Paxton regain momentum by solidifying his base and increasing visibility.
Dec 9 2025
Hunt files official paperwork with the Texas Secretary of State, formally entering the race and prompting a short
Wesley Hunt rises to 16%1%
Hunt files official paperwork with the Texas Secretary of State, formally entering the race and prompting a short
Dec 8 2025
Filing deadline passes with Cornyn, Paxton, and Hunt as main contenders
John Cornyn drops to 27%13%
The official candidate list solidified a competitive three-way race, with Cornyn’s.
Nov 23 2025
Cornyn campaign senior adviser Matt Mackowiak publicly calls Hunt “a legend in his own mind,” intensifying intra‑party criticism and causing a
Wesley Hunt drops to 15%10%
Cornyn campaign senior adviser Matt Mackowiak publicly calls Hunt “a legend in his own mind,” intensifying intra‑party criticism and causing a
Nov 1 2025
Hunt’s campaign rolls out its first statewide TV ad portraying him as the “staunchest Trump ally,” generating a brief rally in the market
Wesley Hunt jumps to 25%14%
Hunt’s campaign rolls out its first statewide TV ad portraying him as the “staunchest Trump ally,” generating a brief rally in the market
Oct 20 2025
Houston‑area poll released in August shows Hunt at 17% in a hypothetical three‑way matchup, giving a modest boost to his perceived viability and lifting the
Wesley Hunt rises to 11%2%
Houston‑area poll released in August shows Hunt at 17% in a hypothetical three‑way matchup, giving a modest boost to his perceived viability and lifting the
Oct 12 2025
National Republican Senate Leadership Fund memo publicly labels Hunt a “weak candidate” and urges support for incumbent John Cornyn, signaling elite GOP opposition and pushing his
Wesley Hunt rises to 9%4%
National Republican Senate Leadership Fund memo publicly labels Hunt a “weak candidate” and urges support for incumbent John Cornyn, signaling elite GOP opposition and pushing his
Oct 6 2025
Wesley Hunt officially announces his Senate bid, turning a two‑person primary into a three‑way race and prompting a surge in his market
Wesley Hunt plunges to 5%45%
Wesley Hunt officially announces his Senate bid, turning a two‑person primary into a three‑way race and prompting a surge in his market
Oct 6 2025
Congressman Wesley Hunt enters the Texas Senate race, complicating the Republican primary and increasing chances of a runoff
Ken Paxton drops to 39%5%
Hunt's entry split the conservative vote, pressuring Paxton's polling numbers downward amid a more crowded field.
Oct 5 2025
Wesley Hunt enters the GOP primary, complicating the race and increasing runoff chances
John Cornyn rises to 46%4%
Hunt’s entry split the anti-Cornyn vote, giving Cornyn a slight boost as the primary field became more crowded and unpredictable.
Sep 21 2025
Ken Paxton attacks Cornyn’s age and establishment ties at San Antonio event
John Cornyn jumps to 47%13%
Paxton’s criticism of Cornyn as out of touch and too old resonated with the GOP base, causing a.
Aug 19 2025
Cornyn’s campaign ads and outreach boost his standing in the Republican primary
John Cornyn jumps to 32%11%
Cornyn’s allies launched a media blitz highlighting his record and support for Trump’s policies, helping him recover some support after a low point in August.
Jul 10 2025
Senator John Cornyn begins critical summer campaign push amid tough primary challenge from Ken Paxton
John Cornyn plunges to 34%16%
Cornyn’s campaign intensified during the Senate’s summer recess to regain ground against Paxton, who was leading in polls. The lack of Trump’s endorsement and Paxton’s strong MAGA appeal pressured Cornyn’s market.
Jul 10 2025
Angela Paxton files for divorce citing adultery, raising questions about Ken Paxton's personal stability during the campaign
Ken Paxton drops to 48%13%
The divorce filing introduced personal scandal concerns that likely dampened Paxton's support temporarily.
Apr 8 2025
Ken Paxton officially announces U.S. Senate candidacy challenging incumbent John Cornyn on Fox News, marking the start of a high-profile primary battle
Ken Paxton jumps to 61%11%
Paxton's formal entry energized his base and shifted early polling in his favor as he positioned himself as a conservative alternative to Cornyn.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas.
If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton holds a trader consensus edge at 57.5% over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn's 42% to win the May 26 Republican primary runoff for the U.S. Senate seat, driven by recent polls showing Paxton ahead among GOP primary voters. A nonpartisan Texas Public Opinion Research survey on April 17 gave Paxton an 8-point lead, while others like coefficient.org show a tighter Cornyn 1-point margin, reflecting Paxton's appeal as a base-aligned challenger criticizing Cornyn's establishment ties and bipartisan votes. Cornyn counters with superior fundraising, boasting over $8 million cash-on-hand versus Paxton's $2.6 million after the first quarter. Both advanced from the fragmented March 3 primary where neither exceeded 50%; the race remains volatile ahead of early voting, with potential endorsements or turnout tipping the balance.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas.
If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas.
If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton holds a trader consensus edge at 57.5% over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn's 42% to win the May 26 Republican primary runoff for the U.S. Senate seat, driven by recent polls showing Paxton ahead among GOP primary voters. A nonpartisan Texas Public Opinion Research survey on April 17 gave Paxton an 8-point lead, while others like coefficient.org show a tighter Cornyn 1-point margin, reflecting Paxton's appeal as a base-aligned challenger criticizing Cornyn's establishment ties and bipartisan votes. Cornyn counters with superior fundraising, boasting over $8 million cash-on-hand versus Paxton's $2.6 million after the first quarter. Both advanced from the fragmented March 3 primary where neither exceeded 50%; the race remains volatile ahead of early voting, with potential endorsements or turnout tipping the balance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Apr 30 2026
Reports emerge of no Trump endorsement in runoff; Paxton considers ending candidacy if Senate Republicans eliminate filibuster for Save America Act
Ken Paxton dips to 57%3%
Uncertainty over Trump's endorsement and Paxton's conditional campaign stance caused slight market adjustment.
Apr 30 2026
Conservative Political Action Conference officially endorses Ken Paxton in Senate runoff against John Cornyn
Ken Paxton rises to 60%3%
The CPAC endorsement reinforced Paxton's conservative credentials and boosted his runoff prospects.
Apr 29 2026
Polls show tight race between Cornyn and Paxton ahead of May runoff
John Cornyn rises to 42%3%
Recent polling indicated a close contest, with Cornyn slightly recovering as the runoff neared, reflecting ongoing uncertainty in voter preferences.
Mar 27 2026
Paxton speaks at Conservative Political Action Conference, maintaining strong conservative support despite runoff challenges
Ken Paxton surges to 54%16%
His CPAC appearance reaffirmed his base support and helped recover some lost ground.
Mar 26 2026
Runoff campaign intensifies with negative ads and attacks between Cornyn and Paxton
John Cornyn drops to 52%12%
The heated runoff campaign and Paxton’s attacks on Cornyn’s establishment image caused a decline in Cornyn’s.
Mar 8 2026
Trump signals support for both Cornyn and Paxton, refusing to endorse a single candidate
John Cornyn surges to 91%27%
Trump’s ambiguous stance energized Cornyn’s base and fundraising, causing a peak in market.
Mar 4 2026
No new fundraising or poll data emerges;
Wesley Hunt plunges to 0%17%
analysts note Hunt’s campaign has stalled, driving the
Mar 3 2026
Texas Republican primary held; Cornyn and Paxton advance to runoff
John Cornyn surges to 64%51%
Cornyn’s advancement to the runoff with Paxton after the March 3 primary was a major positive catalyst, sharply increasing his market.
Mar 3 2026
Texas Republican primary results: Paxton and Cornyn advance to runoff, Paxton leads initial vote but falls short of majority
Ken Paxton plunges to 38%45%
The primary outcome caused a sharp
Feb 21 2026
Polls show Cornyn trailing significantly behind Paxton and Hunt
John Cornyn plunges to 13%22%
Public and private polling indicated Cornyn was losing ground, reflecting concerns about his electability and the strength of his opponents.
Feb 21 2026
Paxton surges to peak polling (83-85%) after aggressive campaigning and endorsements, including CPAC's official backing
Ken Paxton surges to 83%34%
The CPAC endorsement and campaign efforts boosted Paxton's perceived electability among conservative voters.
Feb 7 2026
Hunt launches a second statewide TV ad emphasizing his Trump endorsement, briefly lifting his
Wesley Hunt jumps to 17%13%
Hunt launches a second statewide TV ad emphasizing his Trump endorsement, briefly lifting his
Feb 4 2026
Internal poll released by the Senate Leadership Fund shows Cornyn closing the gap on Paxton, marginalizing Hunt’s role and sending his
Wesley Hunt drops to 4%12%
Internal poll released by the Senate Leadership Fund shows Cornyn closing the gap on Paxton, marginalizing Hunt’s role and sending his
Dec 20 2025
Ken Paxton leads his first major campaign rally at Turning Point USA summit, reinforcing his conservative credentials and energizing supporters
Ken Paxton surges to 60%17%
This rally helped Paxton regain momentum by solidifying his base and increasing visibility.
Dec 9 2025
Hunt files official paperwork with the Texas Secretary of State, formally entering the race and prompting a short
Wesley Hunt rises to 16%1%
Hunt files official paperwork with the Texas Secretary of State, formally entering the race and prompting a short
Dec 8 2025
Filing deadline passes with Cornyn, Paxton, and Hunt as main contenders
John Cornyn drops to 27%13%
The official candidate list solidified a competitive three-way race, with Cornyn’s.
Nov 23 2025
Cornyn campaign senior adviser Matt Mackowiak publicly calls Hunt “a legend in his own mind,” intensifying intra‑party criticism and causing a
Wesley Hunt drops to 15%10%
Cornyn campaign senior adviser Matt Mackowiak publicly calls Hunt “a legend in his own mind,” intensifying intra‑party criticism and causing a
Nov 1 2025
Hunt’s campaign rolls out its first statewide TV ad portraying him as the “staunchest Trump ally,” generating a brief rally in the market
Wesley Hunt jumps to 25%14%
Hunt’s campaign rolls out its first statewide TV ad portraying him as the “staunchest Trump ally,” generating a brief rally in the market
Oct 20 2025
Houston‑area poll released in August shows Hunt at 17% in a hypothetical three‑way matchup, giving a modest boost to his perceived viability and lifting the
Wesley Hunt rises to 11%2%
Houston‑area poll released in August shows Hunt at 17% in a hypothetical three‑way matchup, giving a modest boost to his perceived viability and lifting the
Oct 12 2025
National Republican Senate Leadership Fund memo publicly labels Hunt a “weak candidate” and urges support for incumbent John Cornyn, signaling elite GOP opposition and pushing his
Wesley Hunt rises to 9%4%
National Republican Senate Leadership Fund memo publicly labels Hunt a “weak candidate” and urges support for incumbent John Cornyn, signaling elite GOP opposition and pushing his
Oct 6 2025
Wesley Hunt officially announces his Senate bid, turning a two‑person primary into a three‑way race and prompting a surge in his market
Wesley Hunt plunges to 5%45%
Wesley Hunt officially announces his Senate bid, turning a two‑person primary into a three‑way race and prompting a surge in his market
Oct 6 2025
Congressman Wesley Hunt enters the Texas Senate race, complicating the Republican primary and increasing chances of a runoff
Ken Paxton drops to 39%5%
Hunt's entry split the conservative vote, pressuring Paxton's polling numbers downward amid a more crowded field.
Oct 5 2025
Wesley Hunt enters the GOP primary, complicating the race and increasing runoff chances
John Cornyn rises to 46%4%
Hunt’s entry split the anti-Cornyn vote, giving Cornyn a slight boost as the primary field became more crowded and unpredictable.
Sep 21 2025
Ken Paxton attacks Cornyn’s age and establishment ties at San Antonio event
John Cornyn jumps to 47%13%
Paxton’s criticism of Cornyn as out of touch and too old resonated with the GOP base, causing a.
Aug 19 2025
Cornyn’s campaign ads and outreach boost his standing in the Republican primary
John Cornyn jumps to 32%11%
Cornyn’s allies launched a media blitz highlighting his record and support for Trump’s policies, helping him recover some support after a low point in August.
Jul 10 2025
Senator John Cornyn begins critical summer campaign push amid tough primary challenge from Ken Paxton
John Cornyn plunges to 34%16%
Cornyn’s campaign intensified during the Senate’s summer recess to regain ground against Paxton, who was leading in polls. The lack of Trump’s endorsement and Paxton’s strong MAGA appeal pressured Cornyn’s market.
Jul 10 2025
Angela Paxton files for divorce citing adultery, raising questions about Ken Paxton's personal stability during the campaign
Ken Paxton drops to 48%13%
The divorce filing introduced personal scandal concerns that likely dampened Paxton's support temporarily.
Apr 8 2025
Ken Paxton officially announces U.S. Senate candidacy challenging incumbent John Cornyn on Fox News, marking the start of a high-profile primary battle
Ken Paxton jumps to 61%11%
Paxton's formal entry energized his base and shifted early polling in his favor as he positioned himself as a conservative alternative to Cornyn.
"Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Ken Paxton" at 57%, followed by "John Cornyn" at 42%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 57¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 57% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.
As of today, "Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner" has generated $15.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 10, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.
To trade on "Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
The current frontrunner for "Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner" is "Ken Paxton" at 57%, meaning the market assigns a 57% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "John Cornyn" at 42%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.
The resolution rules for "Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.
Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $15.8 million traded on “Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.
To place your first trade on "Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.
On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 57¢ for "Ken Paxton" in the "Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 57% chance that "Ken Paxton" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 57¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 43¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.
The "Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner" market is scheduled to resolve on or around May 26, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.
The "Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner" market has an active community of 111 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.
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Frequently Asked Questions