Recent V3 Starship flight tests in May 2026 exposed persistent challenges with Raptor engine relights and controlled reentries on both the Super Heavy booster and upper stage, directly tempering trader expectations for demonstrated full rapid reusability—meaning repeated, minimal-refurbishment flights of the complete stack—by year-end. While booster tower catches advanced in 2025 and in-space propellant transfer plus relight milestones occurred, the Ship stage continues facing thermal and propulsion hurdles that have delayed operational reuse. SpaceX’s own updates emphasize ongoing iteration toward high flight rates and zero-turnaround recovery, yet historical test timelines and the need for multiple verified cycles before December 31, 2026, support the 66% market-implied odds on “No.” Key near-term catalysts include upcoming integrated flights and Starlink deployment attempts that could accelerate or further constrain progress.