SpaceX has demonstrated Super Heavy booster catches and one reuse but continues to face repeated setbacks with Starship upper-stage engine relights, heat shield performance, and controlled returns needed for full two-stage reusability. The May 2026 Block 3 flight highlighted ongoing challenges in achieving reliable in-space and landing maneuvers for the ship, while FAA licensing constraints limit the remaining flight cadence through year-end. Traders therefore assign a 66% probability to “No,” viewing the tight timeline and requirement for sequential, operationally relevant successes on both stages as significant barriers despite SpaceX’s iterative progress toward rapid reuse.