Incumbent Sen. Lindsey Graham holds a commanding 83.5% implied probability on Polymarket as the South Carolina Republican Senate primary approaches on June 9, bolstered by his massive fundraising edge—over $20 million raised versus challenger Mark Lynch's $5.7 million, much self-funded—and President Trump's endorsement, reinforcing his incumbency advantage in this GOP stronghold where re-election rates exceed 90% historically. Mark Lynch's 15.7% share surged following Paul Dans' April 10 withdrawal and endorsement, consolidating anti-Graham votes amid March polls showing Graham at 41% and Lynch at 21%, below the 50% threshold for avoiding a potential runoff. Minor candidates Paul Dans (0.9%) and Thomas Murphy (0.2%) trail amid a fragmented field of 12 initial entrants, with trader consensus discounting self-sponsored surveys and betting on Graham's name recognition and institutional support despite base dissatisfaction.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSouth Carolina Republican Senate Primary Winner
South Carolina Republican Senate Primary Winner
Lindsey Graham 89%
Mark Lynch 11.5%
Paul Dans <1%
Thomas Murphy <1%
$112,278 Vol.
$112,278 Vol.
Lindsey Graham
89%
Mark Lynch
12%
Paul Dans
1%
Thomas Murphy
<1%
Lindsey Graham 89%
Mark Lynch 11.5%
Paul Dans <1%
Thomas Murphy <1%
$112,278 Vol.
$112,278 Vol.
Lindsey Graham
89%
Mark Lynch
12%
Paul Dans
1%
Thomas Murphy
<1%
If no 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2025, 3:40 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Sen. Lindsey Graham holds a commanding 83.5% implied probability on Polymarket as the South Carolina Republican Senate primary approaches on June 9, bolstered by his massive fundraising edge—over $20 million raised versus challenger Mark Lynch's $5.7 million, much self-funded—and President Trump's endorsement, reinforcing his incumbency advantage in this GOP stronghold where re-election rates exceed 90% historically. Mark Lynch's 15.7% share surged following Paul Dans' April 10 withdrawal and endorsement, consolidating anti-Graham votes amid March polls showing Graham at 41% and Lynch at 21%, below the 50% threshold for avoiding a potential runoff. Minor candidates Paul Dans (0.9%) and Thomas Murphy (0.2%) trail amid a fragmented field of 12 initial entrants, with trader consensus discounting self-sponsored surveys and betting on Graham's name recognition and institutional support despite base dissatisfaction.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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