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Elections·US Election

South Carolina Republican Senate Primary Winner

icon for South Carolina Republican Senate Primary Winner
Elections·US Election

South Carolina Republican Senate Primary Winner

Lindsey Graham 87%

Mark Lynch 11.1%

Paul Dans <1%

Thomas Murphy <1%

Polymarket

$112,865 Vol.

Lindsey Graham 87%

Mark Lynch 11.1%

Paul Dans <1%

Thomas Murphy <1%

Polymarket

$112,865 Vol.

Lindsey Graham

$39,255 Vol.

87%

Mark Lynch

$9,584 Vol.

11%

Paul Dans

$46,179 Vol.

1%

Thomas Murphy

$17,847 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina. If no 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Incumbent Lindsey Graham commands 86.5% trader consensus to win South Carolina's June 9 Republican Senate primary, driven by his commanding polling leads, former President Trump's March 2025 endorsement, Governor Henry McMaster's active support as campaign chair, and a massive fundraising edge exceeding $20 million. Mark Lynch holds 11.5% as the leading challenger after self-funding millions and gaining momentum from Paul Dans's April 10 dropout and endorsement, which consolidated some anti-incumbent votes following Dans's low 0.8% share. Recent Pulse Opinion Research polling, even commissioned by Lynch, shows Graham ahead 41-21% on initial ballots amid fragmented opposition including Thomas Murphy at 0.2%. Historical precedent favors three-term incumbents in South Carolina GOP primaries, though late consolidation or scandal could shift odds before early voting begins.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina.

If no 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$112,865
End Date
Jun 9, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 15, 2025, 3:40 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina. If no 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina. If no 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Incumbent Lindsey Graham commands 86.5% trader consensus to win South Carolina's June 9 Republican Senate primary, driven by his commanding polling leads, former President Trump's March 2025 endorsement, Governor Henry McMaster's active support as campaign chair, and a massive fundraising edge exceeding $20 million. Mark Lynch holds 11.5% as the leading challenger after self-funding millions and gaining momentum from Paul Dans's April 10 dropout and endorsement, which consolidated some anti-incumbent votes following Dans's low 0.8% share. Recent Pulse Opinion Research polling, even commissioned by Lynch, shows Graham ahead 41-21% on initial ballots amid fragmented opposition including Thomas Murphy at 0.2%. Historical precedent favors three-term incumbents in South Carolina GOP primaries, though late consolidation or scandal could shift odds before early voting begins.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina.

If no 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$112,865
End Date
Jun 9, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 15, 2025, 3:40 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina. If no 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"South Carolina Republican Senate Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Lindsey Graham" at 87%, followed by "Mark Lynch" at 11%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 87¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 87% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "South Carolina Republican Senate Primary Winner" has generated $112.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 15, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "South Carolina Republican Senate Primary Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "South Carolina Republican Senate Primary Winner" is "Lindsey Graham" at 87%, meaning the market assigns a 87% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Mark Lynch" at 11%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "South Carolina Republican Senate Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.