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Elections·Primaries

SC-01 Republican Primary Winner

icon for SC-01 Republican Primary Winner
Elections·Primaries

SC-01 Republican Primary Winner

Mark Smith 51%

Alex Pelbath 25%

Jack Ellison 10.0%

Sam McCown 6%

Polymarket

$10,567 Vol.

Mark Smith 51%

Alex Pelbath 25%

Jack Ellison 10.0%

Sam McCown 6%

Polymarket

$10,567 Vol.

Mark Smith

$3,045 Vol.

51%

Alex Pelbath

$2,140 Vol.

25%

Jack Ellison

$592 Vol.

13%

Sam McCown

$1,818 Vol.

6%

Jenny Costa Honeycutt

$592 Vol.

6%

Jay Byars

$619 Vol.

11%

Logan Cunningham

$671 Vol.

1%

Justin Myers

$536 Vol.

1%

Dan Brown

$554 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the SC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 9, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.State Rep. Mark Smith leads trader consensus at 54.5% implied probability in the SC-01 Republican primary, bolstered by consecutive straw poll victories, including Beaufort County GOP on April 24 and Berkeley County on April 16, where he edged Alex Pelbath at 34.1%. As House Majority Leader with pro-Trump credentials and local business ties, Smith's grassroots momentum in this crowded nine-candidate field for the open seat vacated by Rep. Nancy Mace's gubernatorial bid has widened his edge over Army veteran Jack Ellison (27.2%) and Air Force Lt. Col. Alex Pelbath (24.0%), both emphasizing military service. Jay Byars trails at 13.6% amid a lack of public polls. The June 9 primary requires a majority for outright victory, or top-two advance to June 23 runoff; early voting and turnout in coastal swing areas could shift dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the SC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 9, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$10,567
End Date
Jun 9, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 18, 2025, 3:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the SC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 9, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the SC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 9, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.State Rep. Mark Smith leads trader consensus at 54.5% implied probability in the SC-01 Republican primary, bolstered by consecutive straw poll victories, including Beaufort County GOP on April 24 and Berkeley County on April 16, where he edged Alex Pelbath at 34.1%. As House Majority Leader with pro-Trump credentials and local business ties, Smith's grassroots momentum in this crowded nine-candidate field for the open seat vacated by Rep. Nancy Mace's gubernatorial bid has widened his edge over Army veteran Jack Ellison (27.2%) and Air Force Lt. Col. Alex Pelbath (24.0%), both emphasizing military service. Jay Byars trails at 13.6% amid a lack of public polls. The June 9 primary requires a majority for outright victory, or top-two advance to June 23 runoff; early voting and turnout in coastal swing areas could shift dynamics.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the SC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 9, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$10,567
End Date
Jun 9, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 18, 2025, 3:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the SC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 9, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"SC-01 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mark Smith" at 51%, followed by "Alex Pelbath" at 25%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 51¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 51% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "SC-01 Republican Primary Winner" has generated $10.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "SC-01 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "SC-01 Republican Primary Winner" is "Mark Smith" at 51%, meaning the market assigns a 51% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Alex Pelbath" at 25%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "SC-01 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.