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OH-09 Republican Primary Winner

icon for OH-09 Republican Primary Winner
Politics·ICE

OH-09 Republican Primary Winner

Derek Merrin 82%

Josh Williams 16.2%

Madison Sheahan 2.2%

Alea Nadeem <1%

Polymarket

$20,004 Vol.

Derek Merrin 82%

Josh Williams 16.2%

Madison Sheahan 2.2%

Alea Nadeem <1%

Polymarket

$20,004 Vol.

Derek Merrin

$6,591 Vol.

82%

Josh Williams

$2,112 Vol.

16%

Madison Sheahan

$5,319 Vol.

2%

Alea Nadeem

$2,206 Vol.

1%

Jacob Frost

$1,329 Vol.

<1%

Anthony Campbell

$1,310 Vol.

<1%

Wayne Kinsel

$1,137 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Derek Merrin's 82.5% implied probability in the OH-09 Republican primary trader consensus reflects his dominant 33% showing in the mid-April JL Partners poll of likely voters—nearly triple Josh Williams' 14%—bolstered by the National Republican Congressional Committee's endorsement and prior name recognition from challenging Rep. Marcy Kaptur. Williams trails at 16.2% with backing from Rep. Jim Jordan and claims of leading Q4 fundraising, appealing to grassroots conservatives amid 40% undecideds. An April 20 debate among all five candidates, including Madison Sheahan at 2.4%, focused on immigration and foreign policy but showed no polling shift. With the May 5 primary five days away, traders anticipate undecideds breaking toward the frontrunner in this redrawn battleground district.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$20,004
End Date
May 5, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 10:13 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Derek Merrin's 82.5% implied probability in the OH-09 Republican primary trader consensus reflects his dominant 33% showing in the mid-April JL Partners poll of likely voters—nearly triple Josh Williams' 14%—bolstered by the National Republican Congressional Committee's endorsement and prior name recognition from challenging Rep. Marcy Kaptur. Williams trails at 16.2% with backing from Rep. Jim Jordan and claims of leading Q4 fundraising, appealing to grassroots conservatives amid 40% undecideds. An April 20 debate among all five candidates, including Madison Sheahan at 2.4%, focused on immigration and foreign policy but showed no polling shift. With the May 5 primary five days away, traders anticipate undecideds breaking toward the frontrunner in this redrawn battleground district.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$20,004
End Date
May 5, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 10:13 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"OH-09 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Derek Merrin" at 82%, followed by "Josh Williams" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 82¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 82% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "OH-09 Republican Primary Winner" has generated $20K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 21, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "OH-09 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "OH-09 Republican Primary Winner" is "Derek Merrin" at 82%, meaning the market assigns a 82% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Josh Williams" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "OH-09 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.