Trader consensus prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by May 31 at just 7.3% likelihood, reflecting stalled US-brokered Geneva talks and persistent frontline escalations despite short-term unilateral pauses. On April 29, Putin proposed a brief Victory Day truce for May 9 during a call with President Trump, which the Kremlin insists will proceed without Kyiv's consent, echoing the limited 32-hour Orthodox Easter ceasefire earlier in April that failed to build momentum. Ukraine has intensified long-range oil strikes on Russian infrastructure amid Russian advances, underscoring mutual rejection of broader de-escalation amid irreconcilable demands on territory and security guarantees. Absent major diplomatic concessions or summits before late May, traders anticipate continued hostilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
$1,816,594 Vol.
$1,816,594 Vol.
May 31, 2026
$1,816,594 Vol.
$1,816,594 Vol.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by May 31 at just 7.3% likelihood, reflecting stalled US-brokered Geneva talks and persistent frontline escalations despite short-term unilateral pauses. On April 29, Putin proposed a brief Victory Day truce for May 9 during a call with President Trump, which the Kremlin insists will proceed without Kyiv's consent, echoing the limited 32-hour Orthodox Easter ceasefire earlier in April that failed to build momentum. Ukraine has intensified long-range oil strikes on Russian infrastructure amid Russian advances, underscoring mutual rejection of broader de-escalation amid irreconcilable demands on territory and security guarantees. Absent major diplomatic concessions or summits before late May, traders anticipate continued hostilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 4:00 PM ET
Volume
$1,816,594End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 4:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by May 31 at just 7.3% likelihood, reflecting stalled US-brokered Geneva talks and persistent frontline escalations despite short-term unilateral pauses. On April 29, Putin proposed a brief Victory Day truce for May 9 during a call with President Trump, which the Kremlin insists will proceed without Kyiv's consent, echoing the limited 32-hour Orthodox Easter ceasefire earlier in April that failed to build momentum. Ukraine has intensified long-range oil strikes on Russian infrastructure amid Russian advances, underscoring mutual rejection of broader de-escalation amid irreconcilable demands on territory and security guarantees. Absent major diplomatic concessions or summits before late May, traders anticipate continued hostilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$1,816,975End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 4:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by May 31 at just 7.3% likelihood, reflecting stalled US-brokered Geneva talks and persistent frontline escalations despite short-term unilateral pauses. On April 29, Putin proposed a brief Victory Day truce for May 9 during a call with President Trump, which the Kremlin insists will proceed without Kyiv's consent, echoing the limited 32-hour Orthodox Easter ceasefire earlier in April that failed to build momentum. Ukraine has intensified long-range oil strikes on Russian infrastructure amid Russian advances, underscoring mutual rejection of broader de-escalation amid irreconcilable demands on territory and security guarantees. Absent major diplomatic concessions or summits before late May, traders anticipate continued hostilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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